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Wed Nov 28, 2012, 01:14 PM

Why do people just assume Scott Brown would win if Kerry takes a cabinet position.

You think the democratic party of Massachusetts is going to make the same dumbass mistake like they did back in 2009?

FACT: Martha Coakly, the demo picked to run against Scott Brown in the special election to replace the seat once held by the late great Ted Kennedy, was the absolutely WORST candidate I think I have ever seen run for office. I think I could have scrape gum off the bottom of my shoe and it probably could have done just the same and perhaps a bit better than Coakley. I'm sure Coakley had wonderful qualifications to making her a US Senator but she ran a crappy campaign. She rested on her laurels that Massachusetts is a blue state and it was Ted Kennedy's old seat and assume that the voters would show up and vote for her. Her poorly run campaign was just one of the reasons she failed miserably.

FACT: Back in 2009 the Tea Party was this novel idea that was quickly gaining momentum in 2009 and probably peaked in 2010. At first everyone thought the Tea Party was just about lower government spending and no more taxes. I think the Tea Party reached their peak back in 2010 but you could see the passion start to lose steam when several Tea Party endorsed senate candidates lost in 2010 (Angle, O'Donnell and Buck). In 2012 we saw the Tea Party take even more hits as about 10-12 Tea Party representatives who won in 2010 lost in 2012 and the Republicans actually lost seats in the senate. And the Tea Party failed to get any of their preferred nominees the presidential nomination for the GOP and instead were forced to support Romney instead.

FACT: No one really knew much about Scott Brown. He had some limited political experience on the local level and managed to run a campaign where he came across as a moderate. Four years later we all know about Scott Brown who managed to support GOP Partyline over 90% of the time and ran an absolutely wretched campaign against Elizabeth Warren. Because Brown did align himself so strongly with the GOP he had little to campaign on against Elizabeth Warren and so he centered his campaign on her comments that she had Native American Heritage.

I know there is nothing in the state of Massachusetts that guarantees a Democratic win but if a decent candidate is nominated for the Dems and that candidate actually does the working campaigning - i think we could win the seat.

EDIT NOTE: I've altered this to cabinet position because he has also had his name considered for SEcretary of Defense too.

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Reply Why do people just assume Scott Brown would win if Kerry takes a cabinet position. (Original post)
LynneSin Nov 2012 OP
graywarrior Nov 2012 #1
bluestate10 Nov 2012 #28
graywarrior Nov 2012 #83
SugarShack Nov 2012 #85
graywarrior Nov 2012 #98
bigtree Nov 2012 #2
tech3149 Nov 2012 #35
politicasista Nov 2012 #91
LiberalAndProud Nov 2012 #3
LynneSin Nov 2012 #6
bluestate10 Nov 2012 #33
NYC_SKP Nov 2012 #4
LynneSin Nov 2012 #7
NYC_SKP Nov 2012 #14
godai Nov 2012 #27
politicasista Nov 2012 #90
julian09 Nov 2012 #95
politicasista Nov 2012 #97
nadinbrzezinski Nov 2012 #5
LynneSin Nov 2012 #8
nadinbrzezinski Nov 2012 #11
FSogol Nov 2012 #9
seaglass Nov 2012 #10
Nye Bevan Nov 2012 #12
Blaukraut Nov 2012 #13
Mass Nov 2012 #15
LynneSin Nov 2012 #18
bluestate10 Nov 2012 #34
LiberalAndProud Nov 2012 #16
LynneSin Nov 2012 #22
LiberalAndProud Nov 2012 #23
LynneSin Nov 2012 #26
LiberalAndProud Nov 2012 #31
bluestate10 Nov 2012 #44
seaglass Nov 2012 #57
bluestate10 Nov 2012 #64
seaglass Nov 2012 #69
bluestate10 Nov 2012 #37
Blaukraut Nov 2012 #38
bluestate10 Nov 2012 #45
Blaukraut Nov 2012 #54
LiberalAndProud Nov 2012 #43
bluestate10 Nov 2012 #46
LiberalAndProud Nov 2012 #47
bluestate10 Nov 2012 #66
LiberalAndProud Nov 2012 #72
RomneyLies Nov 2012 #17
Lucinda Nov 2012 #19
MineralMan Nov 2012 #20
bluestate10 Nov 2012 #49
MineralMan Nov 2012 #50
bluestate10 Nov 2012 #67
MineralMan Nov 2012 #68
WI_DEM Nov 2012 #21
onenote Nov 2012 #24
bluestate10 Nov 2012 #52
bluestate10 Nov 2012 #25
LynneSin Nov 2012 #30
bluestate10 Nov 2012 #53
Jennicut Nov 2012 #39
bluestate10 Nov 2012 #55
politicasista Nov 2012 #86
allrevvedup Nov 2012 #29
ladjf Nov 2012 #32
sadbear Nov 2012 #36
bluestate10 Nov 2012 #58
seaglass Nov 2012 #62
sadbear Nov 2012 #63
bluestate10 Nov 2012 #70
politicasista Nov 2012 #87
Blue Nile Nov 2012 #40
bluestate10 Nov 2012 #59
joeybee12 Nov 2012 #41
bluestate10 Nov 2012 #60
joeybee12 Nov 2012 #81
Chiyo-chichi Nov 2012 #88
joeybee12 Nov 2012 #93
hrmjustin Nov 2012 #42
LadyHawkAZ Nov 2012 #48
Liberal_Stalwart71 Nov 2012 #51
bluestate10 Nov 2012 #61
Liberal_Stalwart71 Nov 2012 #75
Capt. Obvious Nov 2012 #56
AndyTiedye Nov 2012 #65
bluestate10 Nov 2012 #71
Liberal_Stalwart71 Nov 2012 #76
AndyTiedye Nov 2012 #99
jeff47 Nov 2012 #73
Chiyo-chichi Nov 2012 #89
graham4anything Nov 2012 #74
seaglass Nov 2012 #77
Rider3 Nov 2012 #78
graham4anything Nov 2012 #79
LynneSin Nov 2012 #82
Mass Nov 2012 #80
LiberalAndProud Nov 2012 #92
Mass Nov 2012 #96
treestar Nov 2012 #84
TwilightGardener Nov 2012 #94

Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 01:18 PM

1. In my MA twisted way of thinking, Scotty lost coz he's a loser.

Besides, we all got a gander at how mean Cosmo boy really is.

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Response to graywarrior (Reply #1)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 01:51 PM

28. Brown got 1.2 million votes against the most appealing candidate that we could have thrown

up against him. Brown has been working on his image, probably with another race in sight. He recently did a big photo-op at the Pine Street Inn's Thanksgiving dinner, him and his wife. I wouldn't be cocky if I were you.

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Response to bluestate10 (Reply #28)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 04:59 PM

83. You said cocky.

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Response to graywarrior (Reply #1)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 05:10 PM

85. Kerry is our most liberal senator and we need him. Besides Bernie.

 

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Response to SugarShack (Reply #85)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 06:43 PM

98. He and Elizabeth need to stay in MA

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 01:19 PM

2. it's a boneheaded idea

Rice is superbly qualified. The Kerry speculation is a republican invention -- meant to foster splits within the party and lower the value of Rice's coin. it stinks. We should be focusing on what's obviously the president's primary choice; Susan Rice. The Kerry talk is a deliberate diversion, now coming in talking points from republican Susan Collins today who claims to be 'troubled' by Rice. Don't play their game.

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Response to bigtree (Reply #2)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 02:10 PM

35. I pretty much agree with you regarding Kerry

For my money the best bet would be to leave Kerry where he is and find somebody for SecDef that is outside the bubble with skills and judgment that could draw down and refocus military expenditures but still maintain defense against true rather than imagined threats. I don't think we can afford to lose Kerry in the Senate. Beyond that, someone like Ray McGovern with experience in intelligence and assessing true threats might be the best option for SecDef. We don't need to waste assets fighting an enemy that doesn't exist.

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Response to bigtree (Reply #2)


Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 01:20 PM

3. Doesn't Scott Brown have some sort of faux moderate reputation?

Voters like him and Elizabeth Warren didn't beat him easily. I'm not opposed to Kerry as our SoS. I am opposed to putting a Senate seat up for grabs. It doesn't seem like it's the expedient thing to do.

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Response to LiberalAndProud (Reply #3)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 01:22 PM

6. I think the reason that it was close was because Warren was a bit 'controversial'

The GOP knew she was a Consumer Credit Advocate and that's not something they want to give any power to. Had she just be a run-of-the-mill Massachusetts Democrat who did a good job campaigning, that person would have won by double the points.

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Response to LynneSin (Reply #6)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 02:00 PM

33. Sorry. I live in Massachusetts. You don't know what you are talking about. Scott Brown has

a million vote base in this state. We can't thrown just "any" democrat up against him and win. May be only one democrat in this state can beat Brown in a straight up trace now. If we go until 2016 before Kerry's seat become vacant, we can throw at least three powerful democrats up against Brown or any one else the republicans put up, one of our candidates could be a young Kennedy, yes from that clan.

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 01:20 PM

4. FUCK the very idea of Kerry becoming Secretary of State. Fuck that shit.

I can't believe we're talking about this idea, and that Hillary would run against Jeb Bush..

Just shoot me now.

Susan Rice is perfect, we ought to just not even engage the RW on these ideas and insist on Rice, IMHO.

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Response to NYC_SKP (Reply #4)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 01:23 PM

7. Oh I agree however

I get annoyed when they say GOP wants Kerry so they can give KErry's seat back to Scott Brown.

That annoys me too.

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Response to LynneSin (Reply #7)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 01:31 PM

14. I actually think it's a MSM and RW driven distraction. (nt)

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Response to NYC_SKP (Reply #4)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 01:50 PM

27. Nobody's perfect.

I prefer Kerry as well qualified and deserving. Nothing to do with RW rumors.

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Response to godai (Reply #27)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 05:38 PM

90. True. Don't understand all the anger at Kerry. He hasn't done anything to Rice

In fact, he worked with her and is loyal to the POTUS.

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Response to politicasista (Reply #90)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 06:11 PM

95. There is no anger at Kerry, the opposite is true

 

they just can't see putting his seat in jeopardy. Scott lost in a presidential election year, in a special election his chances improve considerably. If we could spare the seat it would be no problem. Brown won the lion of the senate's seat and national icon Ed Kennedy's seat only five months after he died. He will run again in four years bet on it, especially if Kerry doesn't run in 2016.

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Response to julian09 (Reply #95)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 06:22 PM

97. Ok

Just nothing that we should not be blaming Senator Kerry for something the GOP is intentionally doing. Maybe missing something. He has a right to do whatever he wants too or does he.

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 01:22 PM

5. Problem is that I am not assuming such

I am assuming, I think correctly though, that the Rs would nominate Scott Brown to try to retake the seat from the Dems. This is high wire politics.

And they have one part of the calculus right. Kerry would love to be SOS, and his name has also been floated for Defense. So they are not fully miscalculating there.

I don't think Brown would win if the Dems run a competent candidate and turnout in the special election is good and all that. But that is another story.

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Response to nadinbrzezinski (Reply #5)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 01:25 PM

8. I just think Brown has 'loser' stamped across his forehead

and that they would be better off finding a new 'Scott Brown' candidate that can pass the moderate test in Massachusetts.

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Response to LynneSin (Reply #8)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 01:26 PM

11. You are talking of the party that nominated the I am not a witch

candidate... and him losing is so last week. Remember, the electorate that will come out to vote, like the electorate that came after Teddy's death, is older, smaller and much more conservative.

That is the calculus.

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 01:25 PM

9. My thoughts exactly. K&Rn/t

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)


Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 01:29 PM

12. Because that man is pure, 100%, WIN.

Oh wait.....

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 01:29 PM

13. Good question. And who is to say Brown won't run against Kerry in '14, or will Kerry even run in '14

The one thing I'm beginning to notice is that whatever devious plan the GOP might or might not be hatching by demonizing Susan Rice, is this: John Kerry is getting caught in the crossfire. All of a sudden, everyone is up in arms about Kerry possibly being nominated for SoS because that "would be playing right into the GOP's hands".

As to who can win against Brown: Deval Patrick.

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 01:31 PM

15. I dont think that at this point, Obama has any choice than going for Rice.

It better be his first choice and I hope he does it sooner than later, because these divisive attacks on good Democrats is tiresome.

For the rest you are right. We just won 2 election cycles, including the 2010 one, where the GOP won nearly everywhere else. We can win. If anything, Coakley's loss makes us more vigilant.

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Response to Mass (Reply #15)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 01:33 PM

18. To be fair, Kerry has been considered for Sec of Defense too

maybe i should alter my original subject line.

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Response to Mass (Reply #15)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 02:09 PM

34. I agree. Obama must select Rice and democrats must stand behind her. If not, the President

comes off as weak in the face of bullying.

Collins is not saying she has "concerns?". Well, her biggest concern should be a knock down, drag out Senate race against the very popular, former Governor of her state, Balducci, who I hope is waiting in the wings after seeing Angus King come out of political retirement and win easily. Balducci has the statewide name recognition and organization to pound Collins into the Maine dirt.

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 01:32 PM

16. I think I have a Red State bias.

I know what the outcome would be in my locality, and it wouldn't be good. I am aware that not everywhere is here, and that is a good thing. Still ...

What did Scott do that damaged him electorally? I missed that he embarrassed himself. Still, I am eying the polls taken in early November. Elizabeth's lead was razor thin. I thought she was the best candidate to pit against Scott, and now I'm reading that she was weak.

I am confused.

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Response to LiberalAndProud (Reply #16)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 01:36 PM

22. Scott Brown went after a comment Warren made about her Native American heritage

First debate he attacked her on that on his opening statement.

Yes, Warren is lilly white in color but it's not uncommon for someone who looks clearly white to have some Native american heritage in her. I mean she is originally from Oklahoma where there is a large Native American population. Brown accused her of using that claim to get into the various schools & organizations. At one point, at Brown rallys the supporters were making 'Indian Chants' when Warren's name was mentioned.

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Response to LynneSin (Reply #22)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 01:39 PM

23. Ah, I didn't miss it after all.

That happened early on in the campaign, and still it wasn't a walk to the win. I know I'm overly pessimistic. It's safer.

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Response to LiberalAndProud (Reply #23)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 01:47 PM

26. I think because of Warren's backgroun with the Consumer Advocacy group

made her very unpopular with the Tea Party & GOP types. I hate to say this but in a swing state like Missouri or Indiana she would have lost. Had it just been anyone else running for the democrats, that person would have easily won by 10-15 points.

She still walked away with an 8 point win which is nothing to sneeze at!

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Response to LynneSin (Reply #26)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 01:55 PM

31. In what world would Tea Party and GOP types vote for a Democrat of any kind?

Are you saying those are the independent voters we would depend on to swing a special election? I am not forgetting that Scott Brown won in a special election the first time, and I've never believed that lightening doesn't strike twice. Getting the Dem vote out is key and too many Democrats stay home during special and midterm elections. I am getting more uncomfortable with this idea as the conversation continues.

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Response to LiberalAndProud (Reply #31)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 02:54 PM

44. About 40% of the voters in Massachusetts are Unaffiliated, or Independent.

Democrats make up the majority of Massachusetts voters, but only barely, by around 10-15%. Republicans aren't large enough in numbers to win without Conservative democrat support and pulling in an abnormal percentage of Independents. Most of the Independent voters were former democrats that became disgusted with corruption, particularly in the Massachusetts House. That corruption was bad during the eighties and nineties, three former speakers of the House faced criminal probes, two were convicted and one was dis-barred, one of the convicted is in federal prison. During the early 2000's, we had two high profile Black democrats get convicted of bribery. The recent better fortunes of democrats in Massachusetts (the party has grown in registration) is due to clean politicians winning office. Our Governor is a clean ex-legal counsel. Our Senate is led by a dull, but unquestionably honest leader, our House is led by another dull, but honest and competent speaker. Our political leaders meet and talk through contentious political issues instead of throwing mud at each other.

When we put up a good strong candidate that gets out and campaigns, the Independent vote breaks around 66% for the democrat. If we put up a weak candidate like Coakley, that vote gets split with the republican, unless the republican is a clear moron, like Coakley's last opponent for the Attorney General office was.

Scott Brown has about a 1 million vote base, mostly because his public image is that of a nice guy. Brown damaged that image during the run against Warren, but he still got 1.2 million votes in a Presidential election year when he was running against a clearly superior opponent - and Brown has worked on his image by doing a recent highly publicized charity event. In order for democrats to beat Brown in a special election, person like Deval Patrick would have to take Brown head on and out campaign him. Patrick has credo with Independents, that group gave him a second term by providing his 6% victory margin over a very strong republican, after Jill Stein took around 3% of the Liberal democratic vote away from Patrick.

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Response to bluestate10 (Reply #44)


Response to seaglass (Reply #57)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 04:11 PM

64. Thanks. I was pulling my numbers from old memory. Most of the un-enrolled vote democrat.

Democrats in Massachusetts have ethical leadership since Patrick took over. If the party continues to run clean, effective government, so of those un-enrolled people will rejoin the party. About 66% of un-enrolls vote for democrats, that is why our candidates normally run such wide margins. Hell, we just re-elected a shit-head democrat Congressman that didn't realize that his wife was laundering millions of dollars. He was innocent, but what the fuck?

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Response to bluestate10 (Reply #64)


Response to LiberalAndProud (Reply #16)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 02:31 PM

37. Warren turned out to be a brutally strong candidate. Warren beat Brown at every turn and she

went all over the state campaigning her behind off. Warren was the exact opposite of Coakley, who gave Brown his chance on the national stage. The Senate race was tough, even with Warren being a powerhouse, she only won by 7%, Obama won Massachusetts by 23%.

Scott Brown appears to have a base vote of 1 million votes in Massachusetts, this worries me. In a special election, turnout is typically low, especially among the people that we would need to count on for votes. I would expect Brown's people to turn out, many are poorly informed elderly and a lot of the others are haters.

At this time, Massachusetts democrats have may be one person that we could put up against Brown and defeat him, the very popular two term sitting Governor, Deval Patrick. But Patrick has recently said that he wants to finish out the two remaining years of his second term and I suspect, campaign for his Lt. Gov, who I expect to win nomination to run in 2014.

If we can get though to 2014, Patrick may be willing to run if kerry does not run for re-election. 2016 or 2017 would be even better in that our side would have Patrick, Tim Murray (current Lt. Gov, probably Gov in 2017) and Joe Kennedy III (who would have done two US House terms by then), and will still only be something like 34-36 years old - enough time for him to do one or two Senate terms before running for President.

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Response to bluestate10 (Reply #37)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 02:32 PM

38. Kerry's term is up in '14, not '16. Still doesn't rule Patrick out, though. n/t

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Response to Blaukraut (Reply #38)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 03:03 PM

45. Did you read my post? I wrote "if Kerry does not run for re-election".

If Kerry does run for re-election and wins, then 2016 comes into play because we will have a new democratic President and that person may want Kerry in her Cabinet. Massachusetts democrats should be able to easily defend an open seat after the 2016 election, we would have more problems doing that now, although we would be good in 2014 if Kerry does not seek re-election.

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Response to bluestate10 (Reply #45)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 03:39 PM

54. Yea, my bad. I misread it. Basically we're on the same page.

Patrick can definitely beat Brown and is probably the favorite in a theoretical match up. The only problem I foresee is that Kerry may actually be vulnerable in '14 if he keeps being portrayed in the media (unfairly) as desperately wanting out of the Senate and into the SoS position. If his opponent (likely Brown) looks like he wants to be in the Senate more and is more passionate about it, he could possibly beat Kerry, especially considering it's a midterm Senate race.

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Response to bluestate10 (Reply #37)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 02:53 PM

43. That is closer to the narrative I am familiar with.

DU is my only window into your state's politics, so I depend on you all. When Teddy was in the Senate, I adopted him as my senator, because he rarely failed to represent my interests. You all hold a special place in my heart because of it, so I'm probably more deeply invested than is logical.

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Response to LiberalAndProud (Reply #43)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 03:13 PM

46. We will keep covering your back. Work hard and organize to make your state less red.

Start at the local level. Strong Mayors and Council members ultimately become state leaders and one day win national office - that is where republicans focused over the last 40 years while we were asleep at the controls. Political dynamics are changing. Young people, even in states like yours have information from all over and can make comparisons, they just need people t put a bug in their ear for them to seek the truth.

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Response to bluestate10 (Reply #46)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 03:15 PM

47. Thanks for the words of encouragement.

But I have two words for you. Deb Fischer. 'nuff said.

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Response to LiberalAndProud (Reply #47)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 04:17 PM

66. Deb Fisher ran against a person that spent the last ten years out of state.

What people like you need to do is develop young politicians at the local level and push them on to the state and national levels. The key is to have honest politicians that have solid policy proposals.

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Response to bluestate10 (Reply #66)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 04:32 PM

72. What you say is true.

However, I will point out that the battle in this state at this time is at the primary level. Deb Fischer is a measure of how far we have to go to gain any traction in this state. I hear what you are saying. We need candidates, but it's very hard to recruit when the outlook is so grim. It is a conundrum. Our resources are few and our national support is nonexistent. We will soldier on, but I don't expect miracles.

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 01:32 PM

17. It's not necessarily that he would win, it's that a special election is the ONLY way he COULD win. n

 

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 01:33 PM

19. Because he lost by only about 230k votes and Warren was a very popular candidate

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 01:34 PM

20. Personally, I'd like to see Kerry stay where he is.

Who should be SoS is not something I'm really qualified to suggest. I just don't have enough information on international affairs or the people who might fill that job well. But I like Kerry right where he is.

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Response to MineralMan (Reply #20)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 03:23 PM

49. Rice is the best choice. But Wesley Clark would be an exceptional choice for SOS or SOD.

My feeling is that Obama has been painted in a corner and must nominate Rice for SOS. Rice is a better choice than Clark because she has been in a hot seat for four years and has been impressive at the UN. Clark has vast experience as a General and diplomat, he negotiated the deal that borough international troops in to stop the killing in Bosnia, and Croatia. Clark was also the Supreme Allied Commander of NATO and led negotiations and the air war with Serbia to stop ethnic cleansing in Kosovo and to set up the path for Montenegro to declare freedom from it confederation with Serbia. I like Rice for SOS and Clark for SOD. If Clark does not get SOD, then Jim Webb would be an excellent choice due to him being a war hero, high ranking Marine officer and two term US Senator.

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Response to bluestate10 (Reply #49)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 03:26 PM

50. Has President Obama actually said that he was planning

to appoint Rice?

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Response to MineralMan (Reply #50)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 04:18 PM

67. No. BUt he gave her a big public pat on the back today. Rice is the best choice, IMO. nt

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Response to bluestate10 (Reply #67)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 04:22 PM

68. Well, there you go, then. This is all manufactured outrage

over something that hasn't even happened. President Obama will announce his choice eventually.

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 01:36 PM

21. While he may not win--we can't take that chance...

We need all the Dems we can get in the Senate. A special election or a mid term election doesn't get the turnout that a presidential election year gets. This helps Republicans. Also, Brown has name recognition and an organization up and ready and enough money to make a big play.

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 01:40 PM

24. I don't think he's guaranteed to win, but he would have several things going for him

Obviously, a lot would ride on who his opponent is. But Brown starts with the advantage of having run two statewide campaigns -- one successful, one not. But keep in mind that he outperformed Romney in the state by a quarter of a million votes and Warren had the advantage of running in a presidential election year in which the top of the ticket was extremely popular in the state -- so much so that President Obama outperformed Elizabeth Warren by nearly a quarter of a million votes. In a special election, against an opponent without an extant statewide apparatus (and, in all likelihood, without the statewide name recognition), and without presidential coattails, Brown likely starts as the favorite. Whether he finishes on top is dependant on any number of things, most of which are unknown at this time.

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Response to onenote (Reply #24)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 03:34 PM

52. My guess if the if Obama put my state into a Special election, the President would

likely have gotten an iron clad agreement from Deval Patrick that Patrick will run to fill the seat. Patrick certainly has the statewide name recognition as a popular two term Governor of the state. Patrick also has a statewide organization that stayed up after his last election and which he uses to help him govern.

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 01:46 PM

25. I live in Massachusetts. We have had three tough elections within the last 2 years.

I will list them:
- The 2010 Special election to fill the Kennedy seat. Martha Coakley could have saved us some anguish by running a competent campaign, but she didn't. Right wing zealots and money came from all over the country to support Brown. Brown's best weapon was Coakley, who seemed arrogant about her chances and disinterested in ground level campaigning. We were crushed by losing that race and that lost set the tone for the big year republicans had in 2010.
- Later that year, the 2010 Gubernatorial race. We had to defends an incumbent that came into the race with a 34% approval rating due to the bad national economy, his own policies were good, as time would show. The republican party threw tens of millions and many people into that race, it was a struggle for us.
- The recent election that had Elizabeth Warren unseat Brown, elected a Kennedy to the House and protected the House seat of John Tierney, who was fucking stupid enough to have been married to a woman who was laundering millions of dollars for her criminal brother. Amazingly, Tierney didn't fucking have a clue about what was going on, that was proven in court - but republicans put a good candidate up against him who we had to beat back to keep Massachusetts blue.

We are fucking tired. If we get another special election, I have no idea of what will happen. Yes Scott Brown made an ass of himself in the Warren race, but he has been rehabilitating his image with well reported charity events. In addition, even though he was a ass with Warren, Brown got around 1.2 million votes against probably the most appealing candidate that we could have thrown up against him.

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Response to bluestate10 (Reply #25)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 01:53 PM

30. I don't think of Warren came across as 'appealing' to many voters.

Sure we liked here here at DU along with other progressives. I know I was excited to see a candidate who truly supports the 99% running for office. She fought for the lil people against big banks which is a very noble progressive cause but one that has little appeal to GOP/Tea Partiers. I think in a lesser state she would have lost just because the GOP/Tea Party sees her as an aggressor against the 1%. Probably moreso than any other democratic candidate out there.

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Response to LynneSin (Reply #30)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 03:36 PM

53. I live in the state. Warren was a highly appealing candidate to Democrats and Independents. nt

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Response to bluestate10 (Reply #25)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 02:42 PM

39. Scott Brown lost by the same amount as Linda McMahon here in Connecticut.

Both Murphy and Warren won by about 8%. In Mass and CT Obama won by double digits but 8 points is still not close at all. I still don't see him as a shoe-in for election. I do understand that Mass voters are exhausted from the last few elections though.

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Response to Jennicut (Reply #39)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 03:40 PM

55. My issue with Brown is he has a base of 1 million votes in this state.

That base size is huge in a Special election.

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Response to bluestate10 (Reply #25)


Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 01:53 PM

29. I'd really like to see Kerry in the Cabinet

 

in any role. Based on accounts of Rice's determined support for the Libya and Syria interventions, and of Kerry's cordial relations with Assad, I would very much like to add his voice to the decision making on foreign affairs. There's only so much he can do as Senator and I absolutely do not support continued interference with Syria or any other MENA nation. What happened in Libya was disgraceful and I'm not talking about Benghazi. Let Britain fight its own damn gas wars, and do it openly, instead of backing phony "rebels," a trick they've been pulling with our gullible assistance since 1953. So they lost their empire, too bad. The world is much better off. They can go back to raising sheep if need be.

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 01:56 PM

32. IMO we need for Kerry to stay in the Senate. nt

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 02:14 PM

36. Eight years ago, we ALL wanted Kerry to be president.

And now some of us don't think he should even be on the cabinet?

C'mon now, Massachusetts has a fine delegation in the House. I reckon any one of them could beat Scott Brown in a special election.

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Response to sadbear (Reply #36)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 03:52 PM

58. You are wrong. There is no one at this time in the Massachusetts US House delegation that

can beat Brown. No one. Joe Kennedy III will be ready in a term or two if he does well in the US House as expected. I saw one Congressman mentioned, the problem with that Congressman is that he is an urban representative who won't be able to match Brown in the vote rich central part of the state.

The only person that could beat Brown now is Deval Patrick, Patrick is the sitting Governor, is popular, has statewide name recognition, is powerful in the coastal regions and the western part of the state and would run even with or better than Brown in the central part of the state.

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Response to bluestate10 (Reply #58)


Response to bluestate10 (Reply #58)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 04:09 PM

63. What about Ed Markey?

I know he's committed to the House, buy do you not think he could beat Brown?

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Response to sadbear (Reply #63)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 04:26 PM

70. Markey would have to step it up, but he can beat Brown, mostly because Markey already has

to run in the moderate Middlesex-Worcester area. Markey is embedded in a centrist, vote rich part of the state that Brown must outperform in to win. Another poster mentioned Marty Meehan, my sense is that Meehan would be a stretch because he has been out of politics for so long, but one benefit is that he has turned one of the state's universities into a star performer for technical disciplines. The other poster may not like Deval Patrick, but Patrick is an excellent Governor, has statewide support and can step in and beat Brown.

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Response to sadbear (Reply #36)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 05:18 PM

87. +1 n/t

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 02:43 PM

40. Just Chill

I think everybody needs to chill a little bit and let this thing blow over.Mrs.Hillary Clinton has clearly said that she will continue in her post and serve as SoS till a successor is identified and confirmed.No timelines are proposed here and in any case there will be no nomination/confirmation hearing till after the Presidential Inauguration in late January and after the new Senate convenes with a larger Democratic majority. I feel it is going to be tough for the GOP to keep the drumbeat going for that long. Especially since there is a 6 week recess coming up. Also the secretary of Defense post is not even available.Sec.Panetta is barely 16 months into his term and although would like to get back to his Institute in CA he has mentioned no timeline to step down and in fact is working on troop levels fr 2014. Let everybody howl around for a while till they get it out of their system.Even after all these rhetoric a majority of Americans see no deliberate attempt to mislead the public on this issue from the Administration

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Response to Blue Nile (Reply #40)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 03:55 PM

59. Welcome to DU. nt

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 02:46 PM

41. Because he has state-wide name recognition...I can't think of any Dem who would run

who would...that's a big head start.

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Response to joeybee12 (Reply #41)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 03:57 PM

60. The sitting Governor, Deval Patrick can beat Brown. That is the only democrat that can. nt

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Response to bluestate10 (Reply #60)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 04:56 PM

81. Has he announced or signaled any intention to? nt

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Response to joeybee12 (Reply #81)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 05:20 PM

88. Nobody has announced anything. There's no vacancy unless Kerry gets a cabinet post.

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Response to Chiyo-chichi (Reply #88)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 06:04 PM

93. True, but "pundits" always like to stir the pot with gossip...

they have nothing better to do so someone might have reported on something.

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 02:50 PM

42. I hope you are right.

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 03:22 PM

48. Because if it happened once...? n/t

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 03:29 PM

51. Because Democrats seem to suffer from an inferority complex. Not only is it incredibly frustrating

how cowardly we are; it is off-putting how we are quick to assert that Republicans will win because...whatever...

I tire of this defeatist, whiner attitude coming from Democrats--not all--but a good number of them.

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Response to Liberal_Stalwart71 (Reply #51)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 04:00 PM

61. May be you should defer to Massachusetts democrats who are actually on the ground here.

No one here is afraid. We just don't want another tough election right now.

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Response to bluestate10 (Reply #61)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 04:37 PM

75. I'm reading the responses to the MA Dems on here. But I stand by my general statement about Dems.

And I specifically stated that NOT ALL Dems are like this, but a good number of us do suffer from a heightened sense of inferiority. Obama hasn't even confirmed who his nominee is and we're already speak of defeat.

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 03:43 PM

56. Because he will crush any special election

End of story. He is still wildly popular in this state (more popular than Warren) and special elections rely more on GOTV than any other. People wanted to vote for him. The fact that he only lost by 8 points in a Presidential year is a feat unto itself. He pulls Dem voters too.

Some of your "facts" are way off base btw.

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 04:12 PM

65. Keep Kerry in the Senate. Putting the Seat Up for Grabs is an Unnecessary Risk

We will have a difficult enough time holding the Senate in 2014 without putting Kerry's seat up for grabs.
There is no Democrat we could run in a special election that would be likely to beat Brown.

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Response to AndyTiedye (Reply #65)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 04:28 PM

71. Deval Patrick should be able to beat Brown. But whether he would run is an issue that only

President Obama knows the answer to.

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Response to bluestate10 (Reply #71)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 04:43 PM

76. I believe that Patrick can crush Brown.

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Response to bluestate10 (Reply #71)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 11:35 PM

99. It Will be a Very Hard Fight to Hold the Senate in 2014. Why Take the Chance?

Patrick's chances of winning would be substantially lower in a special election,
and he'd have to leave the Governor's office early.

We have so many Democratic Senators up for re-election next year that it would
be folly to risk a safe seat. It could easily cost us the Senate.

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 04:36 PM

73. Because 1) special elections are low-turnout elections

And low-turnout elections massively favor Republicans.

2) Brown just had a campaign infrastructure up and running. Getting that back up and running is much easier than the Democrat creating a new one.

3) Brown out-performed Romney by about 20% of the vote. Lots of MA voters still like Brown, they just liked Warren slightly better.

Add those three together, and it will be a very tough contest for the Democrats.

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Response to jeff47 (Reply #73)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 05:27 PM

89. Your point #2 is not insignificant.

Your other points aren't insignificant either -- I'm just surprised it took this many posts for that point to be made.

Brown has mounted two Senatorial campaigns in three years. That's got to be something of an advantage over someone starting from scratch.

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 04:37 PM

74. Since when is a long term Senator who has much power, a bad job to have?

 

Seems Kerry is one of the most powerful of the 100 senators, is up there in seniority, has the Presidents ear, has a brand new untested partner in Mass. Senate who could use some help as the senate rules are not all that easy to understand

and leading from the left, who is a better choice?

Why would he want a different job? I know I wouldn't.

Don't understand when the senate became a bad place to be. Sure is insulting to Ted Kennedy himself who spent decades there.

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Response to graham4anything (Reply #74)


Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 04:48 PM

78. Good post.

You are correct on your facts, especially that Coakley ran the worst campaign? She just gave him the seat. Man, that pissed me off. She didn't even try.

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Response to Rider3 (Reply #78)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 04:53 PM

79. and she wants a second attempt. What is it is her vs. Brown again? OMG she would lose by a mile

 

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Response to graham4anything (Reply #79)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 04:58 PM

82. Who Coakley? HELL NO

Sorry that seat was hers to win and she managed to screw it up.

As much as I'd love to see another woman in the US Senate, I'd rather see anyone who wants to do the work to campaign and win that seat!

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 04:53 PM

80. Here is what the DSCC communication director has to say on this issue as well as a connected MA Dem

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/11/28/15516645-john-kerry-and-the-prospect-of-an-empty-ma-senate-seat?lite

And two, Brown or any other Republican wouldn't have an easy time winning in a special election. "We don't think another Senate run is going to play differently for him," said Matt Canter, communications director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
"He lost by eight points. It was not a close race." Democrat Elizabeth Warren beat Brown, 54%-46%.
And a plugged-in Massachusetts Democrat tells First Read, "The reality is, Scott Brown's only a Goliath in the eyes of Beltway liberals still scarred by his special election win two years ago," adding: "His brand is badly damaged in Massachusetts, even if his legend lives on in Washington."

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Response to Mass (Reply #80)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 06:02 PM

92. As one GOP operative emails, Id certainly like to see that vacancy, and Id like to see Scott run.

That was from your link too. Yea, that's reassuring.

Has Panetta indicated that he will be stepping down as Secretary of Defense? Why is there so much speculation about that appointment? Explain it to me, please.

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Response to LiberalAndProud (Reply #92)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 06:12 PM

96. I have no clue and I think the idea it would go to Kerry is idiotic,

so dont ask me.

It seems some people at the WH have leaked that as a consolation price at the same time they spinned Rice for SoS. May be it would be wise to let Obama decide and announce his decision. Who knows, it may be Hagel (latest rumor of the day. I wonder who leaked that one).

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 05:00 PM

84. Yeah, I wonder it if is a good assumption

DUers from Mass. could weigh in on it, but to me it seems over-simplistic to assume Brown can win the other seat. He just lost, too, so it's different. Has a senate loser ever run for the other seat and won?

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Response to LynneSin (Original post)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 06:06 PM

94. I don't know. I'd feel bad for Kerry if he really wanted

the position--and Obama wanted him-- and yet wasn't considered solely because of what MIGHT happen to his seat.

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