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Tue Nov 27, 2012, 12:39 PM

ARKstorm fears Northern California Residents as Atmospheric River sets up WHOAH!

http://www.theweatherspace.com/news/TWS-112712-arkstorm-california-atmospheric-river-coming.html

TheWeatherSpace.com) - The ARKstorm was what would be predicted as a major rainfall event that would consist of a lot of snowfall in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, followed by a tropical air mass that melts all the snow.

Such a scenario might actually be coming, with the first round hitting on Wednesday, then Thursday into Friday, another on Saturday, and then lasting through Sunday as well. A full five days worth of heavy rainfall in Northern and Central California.

This will bring heavy mountain snow to the higher elevations, but below 8,000 feet it should be all rain. This will melt a lot of the snow that is already up there and cause major flooding in the Central Valley zones.

If you read the article Sacramento is going to get hit with large rainfall and flooding
San Francisco too


Very Ugly weekend Stay safe

32 replies, 3073 views

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Arrow 32 replies Author Time Post
Reply ARKstorm fears Northern California Residents as Atmospheric River sets up WHOAH! (Original post)
lovuian Nov 2012 OP
lovuian Nov 2012 #1
Jankyn Nov 2012 #15
lovuian Nov 2012 #16
CreekDog Nov 2012 #24
lovuian Nov 2012 #28
CreekDog Nov 2012 #30
CreekDog Nov 2012 #22
shanti Nov 2012 #2
lovuian Nov 2012 #4
shanti Nov 2012 #10
lovuian Nov 2012 #11
XemaSab Nov 2012 #18
lovuian Nov 2012 #19
Berlum Nov 2012 #3
patrice Nov 2012 #5
Le Taz Hot Nov 2012 #6
MNBrewer Nov 2012 #7
waddirum Nov 2012 #8
lovuian Nov 2012 #9
warrior1 Nov 2012 #12
msongs Nov 2012 #13
lovuian Nov 2012 #14
XemaSab Nov 2012 #17
lovuian Nov 2012 #20
WinkyDink Nov 2012 #21
Prism Nov 2012 #23
lovuian Nov 2012 #25
Warpy Nov 2012 #26
DollarBillHines Nov 2012 #27
longship Nov 2012 #29
lovuian Nov 2012 #31
lovuian Dec 2012 #32

Response to lovuian (Original post)

Tue Nov 27, 2012, 12:41 PM

1. I hope this isn't too big

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Response to lovuian (Reply #1)

Tue Nov 27, 2012, 03:54 PM

15. Sacramento flood-watcher here ...

...and I'm not buying this guy's reporting.

Yes, we are getting the same jetstream-driven band of rainstorms that cause so much trouble in the Northwest last week. But most weather outlets--in addition to flood warnings about the usual places--are NOT describing this using terms like "atmospheric river," nor are they referring to the ARK Storm scenario.

This strikes me as alarmist post on an amateurish site.

That said, we live in on the first floor of a high-water 1910 four-plex two blocks from the levee on the American River in downtown Sacramento. We are prepared, with bug-out bags for quick evacuation and supplies in case we get stranded. Plus, we've got another floor and an attic above us, and an inflatable raft in the front closet.

Never hurts to be prepared--and to have your flood insurance paid up--when you live in a flood zone.

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Response to Jankyn (Reply #15)

Tue Nov 27, 2012, 11:24 PM

16. Awesome

Great Hope the storm fizzles out

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Response to lovuian (Reply #16)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 01:07 PM

24. What's awesome? The Weather Service forecasters aren't backing off on the forecast

The storm is here, there will be a lull for about 24 hours and will start up again.

The rainfall totals by the end of next weekend could be record setting.

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Response to CreekDog (Reply #24)

Thu Nov 29, 2012, 12:05 AM

28. I was just saying how good it was they were prepared

and you will get hit again in a few days afterward

It is dangerous high tide and full moon...sound familiar ...Sandy ...high tide full moon

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Response to lovuian (Reply #28)

Thu Nov 29, 2012, 12:34 AM

30. okay thanks

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Response to Jankyn (Reply #15)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 01:04 PM

22. How can you say that? NOAA's own person used the term "Atmospheric River"

"There is potential for one of the longer-lived atmospheric river events that we've seen in the last 10 years or so," said Marty Ralph, an expert on the phenomenon at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colo.


Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/2012/11/28/5014591/river-of-storms-headed-for-northern.html#storylink=cpy

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Response to lovuian (Original post)

Tue Nov 27, 2012, 12:44 PM

2. yes, we're getting ready for this in sacramento!

i need to rake leaves now, but when this storm hits, i fear ALL of the leaves will end up down, so i'm going to wait until afterwards. these are from my neighbors' trees though, not my tiny tree. my yard is a leaf magnet

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Response to shanti (Reply #2)

Tue Nov 27, 2012, 12:47 PM

4. it is going to be bad Shanti stock up

I'm glad your on it
when they say ATMOSPHERIC RIVER that is serious dangerous weather

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Response to lovuian (Reply #4)

Tue Nov 27, 2012, 01:54 PM

10. thank god it didn't happen last weekend

when i was driving to socal for thanksgiving. it would have been a nightmare on the roads. i definitely plan to get all i need before then so it won't be necessary to go out.

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Response to shanti (Reply #10)

Tue Nov 27, 2012, 02:15 PM

11. Glad your on it and your right

thank goodness it wasn't during the holidays

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Response to shanti (Reply #2)

Tue Nov 27, 2012, 11:27 PM

18. I raked leaves today

Under the rationale that if I didn't, they would all wind up blocking the storm drain and the whole street could flood.

We got a big tree.

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Response to XemaSab (Reply #18)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 12:02 AM

19. your so good

hope the storm is not an Arkstorm

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Response to lovuian (Original post)

Tue Nov 27, 2012, 12:46 PM

3. 2012

I'm just sayin...

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Response to lovuian (Original post)

Tue Nov 27, 2012, 12:55 PM

5. K&R

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Response to lovuian (Original post)

Tue Nov 27, 2012, 12:55 PM

6. This is confusing . . .

it refers to "Central California." That's a HUGE swath. Fresno's forecast is "chance of scattered rain" during those days and Fresno is the central part of Central California.

A couple of weeks ago there was some screaming headlines that there will be snow in the Central Valley!!!111!!!!! The map showed all white in this area. Turns out, it was fog.

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Response to lovuian (Original post)

Tue Nov 27, 2012, 01:01 PM

7. Just in time for my trip to SF

*sigh*

Oh, wait, that's for THIS week. NEver mind

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Response to lovuian (Original post)

Tue Nov 27, 2012, 01:02 PM

8. The headline is very confusing

Does the storm fear the California residents, or do the residents fear the storm?

I know that the headline comes from the newspaper (and not from lovulan), but poor language and grammar scare me as much as the weather.

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Response to waddirum (Reply #8)

Tue Nov 27, 2012, 01:13 PM

9. I had never heard of Arkstorm before but it is on Wiki

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARkStorm


An ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1000 Storm) is a hypothetical but scientifically realistic "superstorm" scenario developed and published by the United States Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP). It describes an extreme storm that may impact much of California causing up to $725 billion in damages and repair (most caused by flooding), and affect a quarter of California's homes. The event would be similar to intense California storms which occurred in 1861 and 1862. The name "ARkStorm" means "Atmospheric River (AR) 1000 (k)." The name was created as a way of quantifying the magnitude of west coast storms. It also meant to be drawn as a parallel to the biblical Noah's Ark story.

this is one scary scenario on a climate model computer YIKES

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Response to lovuian (Original post)

Tue Nov 27, 2012, 02:21 PM

12. I don't know about Arkstorm, but this is what weatherunderground has.

Areal Flood Watch

Statement as of 11:12 AM PST on November 27, 2012

... Flood Watch remains in effect from Thursday afternoon through
Sunday afternoon...

The Flood Watch continues for

* a portion of northern California... Sacramento Valley... West
Slope northern Sierra Nevada... northern Sierra
foothills... Carquinez Strait and Delta... Clear Lake
area... Shasta Lake area... Lassen park... motherlode... northern
San Joaquin Valley and East Slope of the northern coastal
mountains.

* From Thursday afternoon through Sunday afternoon

* confidence is high in a prolonged period of moderate to heavy
precipitation. The heaviest precipitation is expected over
Shasta County along with Butte and western Plumas counties where
a large area of rainfall amounts of 12 to 18 inches or more will
be possible through the weekend. In the Sacramento
Valley... rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with higher amounts
possible through the weekend. 2 to 4 inches are possible in the
northern San Joaquin Valley by Sunday.

* Impacts: debris flows likely... especially near recent burn scars
in Shasta... Tehama... Colusa... and Plumas counties. Urban and
Small Stream flooding will occur in the valley and foothills
with river flooding expected on the upper Sacramento River.
Mountain river and stream flooding above the reservoirs is possible.


Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.



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Response to lovuian (Original post)

Tue Nov 27, 2012, 02:32 PM

13. dont' ya just hate this normal weather that has occured repeatedly for centuries? nt

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Response to msongs (Reply #13)

Tue Nov 27, 2012, 02:39 PM

14. what fascinates me is that they did a study on the Arkstorm

a climate model and then poof in 2012 we get an Arkstorm which happened a hundred years ago

is that a coincidence or what ...they even estimate the monetary damage

amazing

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Response to lovuian (Original post)

Tue Nov 27, 2012, 11:25 PM

17. We're supposed to get 18 inches of rain here

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Response to XemaSab (Reply #17)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 12:54 PM

20. Any Updates

How is the weather there ? Be Safe

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Response to lovuian (Original post)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 12:56 PM

21. "Fears"? "Scares" would work.

Why, yes, I am a Grammar....Maven.

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Response to lovuian (Original post)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 01:05 PM

23. So very glad I bought a car last week

It is pouring down in East Bay at the moment. Had I biked, it would have been squishy and not so happy times.

Stay safe out there.

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Response to lovuian (Original post)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 11:45 PM

25. Strong Storms Arrive



High winds Full moon and High Tide

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Response to lovuian (Original post)

Wed Nov 28, 2012, 11:52 PM

26. Don't hog it all, California

NM is horribly dry and everything is getting really crunchy out there.

Bugger. Extended forecast says the most we can expect out of it is a few passing clouds.

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Response to lovuian (Original post)

Thu Nov 29, 2012, 12:02 AM

27. It will pump the olives, and the grapes are in...

I am headed for NY.

Let it rain...

The crops are in.

This is all a bunch of Weather Channel crap.

Let it rain, we need it. Harvest is over and the timing is perfect

That being said, my pool guy is foaming at the mouth.

My pool is already covered with leaves.

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Response to lovuian (Original post)

Thu Nov 29, 2012, 12:06 AM

29. Stay safe NoCals!

And do not camp at Donner's pass this week.

Just some friendly advice.

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Response to lovuian (Original post)

Thu Nov 29, 2012, 04:45 PM

31. Some sad stories

Sacramento's homeless seek refuge from week's storms

http://www.sacbee.com/2012/11/29/5017528/sacramentos-homeless-seek-refuge.html#storylink=cpy

While Northern California braces for torrential rains and winds, homeless people are taking refuge in malls and libraries, under parked vehicles, freeway overpasses and roof overhangs, and in light-rail cars.

They are also flooding an already overburdened Sacramento housing network.

Connie Frank, co-director of Maryhouse homeless services center, said staff is trying to put a roof over children's heads during the storm.

"It's heartbreaking," Frank said of families with children who come into Maryhouse seeking shelter. "We had a young mom and dad come in two days ago with an 8-month-old baby, and they had slept outside the night before. It's Shocking




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Response to lovuian (Original post)

Sat Dec 1, 2012, 11:24 AM

32. 1861 was a very bad year for California

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=megastorms-could-down-massive-portions-of-california

Megastorms Could Drown Massive Portions of California

Huge flows of vapor in the atmosphere, dubbed "atmospheric rivers," have unleashed massive floods every 200 years, and climate change could bring more of them


Dec 1 storm this weekend

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