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Mon Nov 26, 2012, 03:42 PM

Most reporting about Holiday Retail is spin

The media and trade groups have a comfortable conspiracy every December of claiming that holiday shopping is up, up, up.

Since retail is most of media advertising, it is a service to advertisers to credulously parrot whatever claims trade organizations make.

In January we get a more reliable picture of how strong or weak things were.

Given everything, I have no reason to think this year is not strong. It probably is.

But since they would say the same thing either way, such reporting has little value.

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Mon Nov 26, 2012, 03:45 PM

1. all else being equal, holiday spending will go up every year, because of inflation

 

& rising population.

i'd like to see the inflation adjusted/per capita numbers & the profit margins.

i don't believe this has been an especially good holiday season so far.

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Response to HiPointDem (Reply #1)

Mon Nov 26, 2012, 04:52 PM

7. The 13% gain this Thanksgiving is much higher than inflation.

http://www.sfgate.com/business/bloomberg/article/Merchants-Keep-Deals-Flowing-on-13-Holiday-Sales-4067447.php

Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. retailers are extending deals into Cyber Monday and beyond to try to sustain a 13 percent gain in Thanksgiving weekend sales.

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Response to pnwmom (Reply #7)

Mon Nov 26, 2012, 04:53 PM

8. link?

 

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Response to HiPointDem (Reply #8)

Mon Nov 26, 2012, 05:01 PM

11. There was a link in that post. But here's another one.

http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Latest-News-Wires/2012/1126/Black-Friday-record-Weekend-sales-up-13-percent


All told, a record 247 million shoppers visited stores and websites over the four-day weekend starting on Thanksgiving, up 9.2 percent of last year, according to a survey of 4,000 shoppers that was conducted by research firm BIGinsight for the trade group. Americans spent more too: The average holiday shopper spent $423 over the entire weekend, up from $398 last year. Total spending over the four-day weekend totaled $59.1 billion, up 12.8 percent from 2011.

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Response to pnwmom (Reply #11)

Mon Nov 26, 2012, 05:18 PM

13. yeah, after you edited it. where's the "inflation-adjusted" in that link?

 

neither one of those links say anything about adjusting for inflation, nor does either compare inflation-adjusted holiday spending over time.

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Response to HiPointDem (Reply #13)

Mon Nov 26, 2012, 05:23 PM

14. You don't need an inflation adjustment when you're talking about 12.8%.

Our rate of inflation is far below that, but if you disagree, you can find your own link.

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Response to pnwmom (Reply #14)

Mon Nov 26, 2012, 05:50 PM

15. to determine 'best year ever'? of course you do.

 

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Response to HiPointDem (Reply #15)

Mon Nov 26, 2012, 08:36 PM

17. I didn't say it was the "best year ever." I said that it was up over the inflation rate. n/t

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Response to pnwmom (Reply #17)

Mon Nov 26, 2012, 11:52 PM

18. the media did.

 

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Mon Nov 26, 2012, 03:46 PM

2. Since 2009, every holiday shopping season has been better than the previous one

I believe that trend will continue.

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Mon Nov 26, 2012, 03:49 PM

3. you can remove three words from your title...

about Holiday Retail just adds a level of detail that is not really distinguishing...

sP

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Mon Nov 26, 2012, 03:55 PM

4. All of these sales number are

dependent by regions. Here in the Southwest,we are about 10-15% off of last years numbers. This will piss off many,but,the Red areas of the Southwest are way behind in terms of recovery compared to the Blue states. See the daily sales in our region and the Willlard supporters are in a big hurt. This area will be in trouble until 2014 or later. BTW,Vegas has about 9000 home at any time on the market,duh. That's a 3-5 year over supply and prices are now starting to fall again.

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Mon Nov 26, 2012, 04:08 PM

5. I believe they are simply creating a cultural phenomenom

Like they did with the dumbass "Reality" shows.

Nobody wants to be the only person in the room who doesn't "get" the joke.

I know adults who can name every Kardashian sister but don't know who their own Congressperson is.

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Response to DollarBillHines (Reply #5)

Mon Nov 26, 2012, 04:49 PM

6. I do not know the names of the Kardashians

and I really do not care to know

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Response to Angry Dragon (Reply #6)

Mon Nov 26, 2012, 04:57 PM

10. No kidding

I have seen the sex vid, tho.

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Response to DollarBillHines (Reply #10)

Mon Nov 26, 2012, 05:07 PM

12. That is just heathen sex

you need to wash your eyes and pray



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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Mon Nov 26, 2012, 04:56 PM

9. most reporting about anything by our media is spin...

that's why it's broken to pieces....

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Mon Nov 26, 2012, 06:46 PM

16. My experience is that holiday selling is up

I make art jewelry by hand and sell it at art festivals as a hobby/small business. I do make money at it consistently and have been at it since 2007.

I sell at shows in the fall and the spring, and make the work in the summer and winter. This fall I had 4 shows, with the last being over yesterday. Two were before the election and two after.

Before the election the shows went pretty much as they have since 2008, modest sales of low priced inventory, with one or two pricey pieces a show to round things out. Most of these sales were cash.

After the election, the credit cards came out, people were buying multiple pieces, at the moderate low to mid range of my inventory at a rate I had not seen since Bush* crashed the economy. I had not planned on this and really did not have the finished work to support that sort of buying for more than one show, but I still had one more event to do. I had already paid the fees for that show and needed to attempt to at least earn those dollars back. I scrambled and pulled more stuff together at the low end to refill the display because I can produce it quickly, went to the next show and literally sold every single bit of it. Sales only dropped off when my inventory was cooked down to mostly high dollar collector pieces that usually take a year or two to find a buyer.

My direct experience is that people are shopping with the sort of confidence (on credit) that I have not seen since 2007.

Good news (for me) or bad news, it is what it is.

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