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Fri Nov 23, 2012, 03:44 PM

VERY detailed article on Obama's polling. I suggest you read the whole thing.

WASHINGTON -- Summing up the lessons learned from a massive investment in data and technology, Obama campaign manager Jim Messina has a blunt message for pollsters: "We spent a whole bunch of time figuring out that American polling is broken."

At a Politico forum on Monday, Messina spoke about the campaign's "three looks at the electorate" that gave him a deeper understanding of "how we were doing, where we were doing it, where we were moving -- which is why I knew that most of the public polls you were seeing were completely ridiculous."

David Simas, the Obama campaign's director of opinion research, provided The Huffington Post with more details about those three sources of polling data:


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/21/obama-campaign-polls-2012_n_2171242.html?utm_hp_ref=politics

61 replies, 4583 views

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Reply VERY detailed article on Obama's polling. I suggest you read the whole thing. (Original post)
RandySF Nov 2012 OP
teddy51 Nov 2012 #1
longship Nov 2012 #2
RandySF Nov 2012 #3
longship Nov 2012 #4
RandySF Nov 2012 #5
OldDem2012 Nov 2012 #7
Coyotl Nov 2012 #8
teddy51 Nov 2012 #17
Coyotl Nov 2012 #49
longship Nov 2012 #10
RobertEarl Nov 2012 #11
longship Nov 2012 #13
teddy51 Nov 2012 #14
RobertEarl Nov 2012 #15
longship Nov 2012 #19
teddy51 Nov 2012 #20
longship Nov 2012 #23
teddy51 Nov 2012 #26
RobertEarl Nov 2012 #22
longship Nov 2012 #24
RobertEarl Nov 2012 #27
teddy51 Nov 2012 #12
longship Nov 2012 #16
teddy51 Nov 2012 #18
longship Nov 2012 #21
teddy51 Nov 2012 #25
RobertEarl Nov 2012 #30
teddy51 Nov 2012 #31
RobertEarl Nov 2012 #38
teddy51 Nov 2012 #40
RobertEarl Nov 2012 #41
longship Nov 2012 #33
teddy51 Nov 2012 #36
Agschmid Nov 2012 #43
WinkyDink Nov 2012 #29
longship Nov 2012 #34
teddy51 Nov 2012 #39
longship Nov 2012 #42
reusrename Nov 2012 #58
aquart Nov 2012 #54
theKed Nov 2012 #56
WinkyDink Nov 2012 #28
longship Nov 2012 #37
Samantha Nov 2012 #44
longship Nov 2012 #45
Samantha Nov 2012 #46
longship Nov 2012 #47
Samantha Nov 2012 #50
Jim Lane Nov 2012 #48
Lisa0825 Nov 2012 #51
Zorra Nov 2012 #53
aquart Nov 2012 #52
longship Nov 2012 #55
reusrename Nov 2012 #59
JaneyVee Nov 2012 #6
KT2000 Nov 2012 #35
Raine Nov 2012 #9
hrmjustin Nov 2012 #32
unblock Nov 2012 #57
RandySF Nov 2012 #60
Raine1967 Nov 2012 #61

Response to RandySF (Original post)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 03:49 PM

1. My opinion; I think the polls were skewed that way for a purpose, and that purpose (if things had

 

gone the way they were supposed to) for the Romney was to justify a steal of the election.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 04:29 PM

2. DURec and Kick. Very interesting!!

By the way, the GOP never attempted to steal this election (other than their normal voter suppression) for three reasons.

1. It is extraordinarily difficult to do and get away with it, no matter what tin foil hat folks think. Stealing an election across multiple battleground states is not just impractical, it's virtually impossible, unless somebody wants to get caught with their fingers in the cookie jar and go to prison.

2. The Romney campaign thought they were ahead because of their own skewed polls (as has been documented in the past couple of weeks). That's why Rove was upset about the OH call on election night. His pollsters told him Romney would win OH.

3. Obama was comfortably ahead throughout the year and the Obama campaign knew it (as is documented in this article).

These three facts should put to bed the stolen election claptrap here on DU. We see it every two years, but the facts just don't support it, especially the past four years.

R&

By the way, Karl Rove is not an omnipotent god.

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Response to longship (Reply #2)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 04:35 PM

3. An election CAN be stolen

Florida 2000 is an example of both techniques. First you game the system in such a way that alters the make up of the electorate. Jeb Bush and Katherine Harris disenfranchise 22,000 voters by dropping them for the roles if there was the slightes error on the voting roles or had a name that matched a criminal felon. When they didn't work and a recount had Gore gaining fast on them, they enlisted James Baker, his fixers and the Supreme Court of the Unites States to do delay every step of the process. But you're right, it's too difficult to steal an election when voters in a given state move in a clear direction.

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Response to RandySF (Reply #3)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 06:49 PM

4. We all know about 2000.

But there are people, incorrectly, claiming that the omnipotent god Rove would have stolen the 2012 election if it were not for some anonymous Inet post (but absolutely no evidence that it was Anonymous).

The tin foil hats are thick on DU.

Do not confuse 2000 with 2012. To do so is to be wearing a lot of tin foil for the reasons I gave in my response to the OP.

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Response to longship (Reply #4)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 07:44 PM

5. I agree.

It would have to be on such a scale that he would have been caught red handed.

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Response to longship (Reply #4)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 07:58 PM

7. Are you trying to tell us that we can't discuss that particular topic...

...because you and a few others don't want to see it on DU?

And all this time I thought DU was a platform for participating in the democratic activity known as free speech.

Evidently, self-appointed DU censors are far more prevalent on this board than anyone wearing any version of a so-called tin foil hat.

I have a response for you and anyone else wanting to limit free speech.....

I DID NOT serve in the military to protect your self-professed right to shut off discussion on any topic you and others believe to be unfit for DU. I DID serve to protect the right of everyone to speak freely on ANY subject. If you have a problem with that, then I suspect you're on the wrong board.

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Response to OldDem2012 (Reply #7)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 08:13 PM

8. Wow, let them express their opinions.

No need to get all defensive.

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Response to Coyotl (Reply #8)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 09:45 PM

17. Yes there is a time to get defensive when we have people on DU that are trying to shut down

 

an open discussion and what some deem as not in there liking. I have a statement for those that are trying to shut vote stealing (as a cyber crime) discussion down. Go away, and don't participate in the discussion if you don't like the topic.

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Response to teddy51 (Reply #17)

Sat Nov 24, 2012, 07:17 AM

49. Your characterization is not true

"those that are trying to shut vote stealing (as a cyber crime) discussion down"

Those fully aware of all the problems with voting are the least likely to accept this new Conspiracy Theory. That does not mean they are "trying to shut vote stealing ... discussion" at all, just that they find this story to be a pile of bullshit. Not to mention, a big distraction from the truth and solving the problem because it throws false information into the mix. That may even be its purpose, to derail the election integrity discussion with bullshit.

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Response to OldDem2012 (Reply #7)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 08:31 PM

10. In spite of your objectionable tone, I will respond.

If you have evidence for a 2012 stolen election, I would gladly listen. But all I have seen here on DU this season is suppositions and what-ifs, neither of which are evidence.

Then there is this supposed YouTube by an alleged Anonymous "operative". Shit! That isn't evidence! I could have done it myself.

Plus, the stolen election crowd has a huge mountain to climb. President Obama won re-election, and it wasn't close. Furthermore, pretty much everybody agrees that the points in my original response is what happened.

So what happens to conspiracy theories with these facts?

There was no stolen election in 2012. Everybody, and I do mean everybody agrees that President Obama ran a wonderfully masterful and intelligent campaign and that Romney ran an incompetent and inept campaign.

But there are those who regardless want to instill in the the Republicans an omnipotence which, by all evidence, is non-existent.

For Christ sakes. Look at the evidence. Obama won. It wasn't close. And Democrats took back more seats in both the Senate, and the House.

So where the fuck is the stolen election??? (Other than my already mentioned voter suppression.)

The stolen election meme is deader than a Tyson chicken. Hell, even the Republicans are using it. Doen't that tell people something?

There are checks and balances in our electoral process.

I will stand by my first post in this thread.

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Response to longship (Reply #10)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 08:46 PM

11. Dude, check out this link

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021847774

Possible Path to E-vote Theft

Lots of history and stuff.

There was one thing in your post you got right..

The election was not stolen from Obama because we stopped Rove from stealing it. Hurray for us!

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Response to RobertEarl (Reply #11)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 09:10 PM

13. History? Don't you mean post hoc fallacies?

It is common in all conspiracy theories. One looks for apparent anomalies in historic events after the fact (that's where the post hoc part comes -- it's Latin, look it up). All anomalies then become part of the evidence for the grand conspiracy. However, all historic events happen with lots of apparent anomalies.

To attribute anomalies to intention is a human trait. Millions of years of evolution have bred into human genes to be suspicious of the rustle in the weeds. If it's a tiger, you may be dinner. If it isn't, by acting as if it was, doesn't do much harm.

Except in this case. Humans have evolved culturally enough to tell the difference. Regardless, some people still see the tiger in the weeds with every rustle. The difference is to put our rationality above those innate, inbred tendencies.

The evidence is what matters. The conspiracy theories are meaningless without evidence. Supposition does not rise to that level.

Sorry, but I don't buy the conspiracy theories. They don't stand up to the evidence.


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Response to longship (Reply #13)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 09:26 PM

14. Now why would anyone want to argue with your logic, I am certain you don't want to hear

 

my CT theory on 911 then.

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Response to longship (Reply #13)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 09:27 PM

15. Hmmm

So you think theft by computer, or as it is called - cyber-crime is a theory with no evidence to prove it exists?

Do you also deny the existence of Anonymous?

How about computer wizards who are hackers?

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Response to RobertEarl (Reply #15)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 09:58 PM

19. I know! Wasp and Plague and Bob "The Dog" did it!!!

Rubbish! There was no election theft in 2012. Or, 2010. Or, 2008.

You have evidence? Produce it. I assure you that the NYT, WaPo, or somebody would pay big bucks to write the story.

You stolen election conspiracy theorists have nothing. Nothing!

Obama won! Easily! And the state polls said so since spring. So how could the Republicans have stolen it?

Jesus! This is such ignorance.

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Response to longship (Reply #19)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 10:11 PM

20. No pal, your the one that's ignorant. You obviously have no IT experience and therefore have no

 

idea what is possible or not, when it comes to vote flipping, computer hacking etc. I suggest you do some serious research on what can and cannot happen with electronic voting.

Then get back to us on election fraud!

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Response to teddy51 (Reply #20)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 10:23 PM

23. Ignorant? It's "you're" not "your"

Meh!

I still think Wasp, Plague, and Bob "The Dog" stole the election.

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Response to longship (Reply #23)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 10:28 PM

26. Wow, lol ... I guess we have broken you down when you get to Spelling and grammar.

 

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Response to longship (Reply #19)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 10:16 PM

22. There will be evidence

But you will just deny it exists. Just like you just now avoided answering any of those simple questions posed to you.

There has been evidence of stolen votes and stolen elections. There is much evidence of machines not counting correctly. How did they find that? Because they went back and counted the paper ballots. In places where there was no paper, funny numbers appeared all over the place. The same kinds of funny numbers that made officials go back and count the paper. They used a science called statistics to determine those facts.

Lets say you leave the door open the Ft. Knox. You think someone may ease their way in and run off with some gold? What if at the door there was a computer that kept track of the gold and anyone going in could access that computer and make it read 5 bars less. Ya think the crooks would use that tool to hide their tracks?

What you are proposing is grounded in, well, ignorance. Do you know computer geniuses say: Do not use computers to count the vote. Huh? Did you know that?

Your denial of the multitude of facts concerning the e-vote system
does absolutely nothing but allow the crooks room to operate. The rest of us will continue to work to close them down.

We succeeded in 2012. Obama won fair and square because the vote count was close to accurate. Why do you disagree?


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Response to RobertEarl (Reply #22)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 10:25 PM

24. See my response #16

Thank you very much.

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Response to longship (Reply #24)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 10:29 PM

27. Yeah, sure, dude

You make wild unsubstantiated claims and then you call us pathetic.

I'm done even trying to converse with you. You ignore every response and do nothing more than call names. Goodbye.

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Response to OldDem2012 (Reply #7)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 08:51 PM

12. I agree with you. For some reason there are those on DU that seem to have a problem admitting

 

that our current election system is anything but safe. If Rove could have stolen it, he certainly would have, and I don't need any evidence for this statement.

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Response to teddy51 (Reply #12)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 09:44 PM

16. A straw man argument.

Nobody said elections are safe. The Republicans are doing overt voter suppression. The evidence for that is unmistakeable, and undeniable.

It's the rustle in the grass which is an actual tiger. Yet the federal judges this election -- many of whom are Republican nominees or appointees -- have ruled against these laws, almost universally. Our rule of law still works, apparently.

Look! Our system hangs on the edge. But it still functions, in spite of the GOP oppression. The Republicans attempt to oppose and oppress every Democratic initiative. We are all aware of these efforts and they are undeniable.

But to extend this to overt, national voter fraud which extends to many statewide conspiracies necessary to turn this election goes far beyond the 2000 debacle.

Plus, may I add... Obama fucking won!!! And it wasn't fucking close!! And Dems gained two seats in the Senate when everybody... and I do mean everybody... was saying Dems would lose Senate seats weeks ago. We also gained about ten seats in the House, in spite of Republican state house gerrymandering.

So where the fucking hell is this stolen election?

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Response to longship (Reply #16)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 09:51 PM

18. "Look! Our system hangs on the edge. But it still functions, in spite of the GOP oppression."

 

No it doesn't function, and it's people like you that are trying to shut down conversation on both what is wrong, and how to fix it. I don't know what your problem is, in addressing what is very certainly a problem but get the fuck over it or don't add your obvious ignorance to those that admit we have a problem and want to fix it.

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Response to teddy51 (Reply #18)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 10:16 PM

21. No! The language I am trying to shut down is this.

Where unsubstantiated allegations become facts. Like Karl Rove is an omnipotent god who, like a chess master, commands all political currents within the country.

There comes a time and circumstances where common sense has to prevail.

You cannot fucking simultaneously claim that the election was stolen, and at the same time claim that it was saved at the last minute by some anonymous, mysterious force, and especially an Anonymous force.

Give me some evidence other than a masked dude on YouTube.

Gosh! Obama had this all the way. Just like in 2008. It didn't stop the stolen election screechers from flapping their gums four years ago, nor today.

You people are pathetic.

That's not to say we don't need to insure the integrity of the vote and a national right to vote. I merely stating that your claims are falsified.

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Response to longship (Reply #21)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 10:26 PM

25. No pal, you are the pathetic one! I don't know if a source such as Anonymous was involved in any

 

way in this election, but I am certainly not closed minded enough to rule that out. Was Karl Rove extremely upset about the results? You bet your ass he was. Was this election and it's results subject to Cyber Crime? Most certainly possible.

So, if you can't except that the results may have been due to a group such as Anonymous, well that's your loss.

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Response to teddy51 (Reply #25)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 10:34 PM

30. Can you believe that dude?

Oh well, it is the rare case anymore that stoops to calling us names, so we are making progress, eh?

You keep at it Teddy. We have made great strides. Obama's election was not stolen. It is due somewhat to our efforts to ensure it was not. It sure is a great feeling to know Rove didn't get to do what he wanted, eh?

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Response to RobertEarl (Reply #30)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 10:38 PM

31. Good job Robert and I have your back! I will not sit here 12 years later and pretend that any

 

election (that involve Electronic voting, with some owned by the opposition) is fair.

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Response to teddy51 (Reply #31)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 11:02 PM

38. We know in 2008 the turnout smoked the theft

This time turnout was lower. But this time we were all over Rove's ass and he didn't make a move but we were watching.

So, Obama won by 51% - 47%. Really, switch 2% of the votes and Romney is the winner! (For every vote moved it means two votes)

Now this thread is about the Obama team having polling that showed the commercial polls were ridiculous. How ridiculous? I'd bet Obama actually won by 10%, meaning he won 55% of the vote. But he ended up at 51%! That means it could be that at least 4% of the votes were moved from Obama to Romney.

If what the Obama team says is true, that the polls were crazy, then they know just how much was stolen.

Obama did say just before the election that he was gonna try and repair the system. Obama knows he got ripped off. He knows.

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Response to RobertEarl (Reply #38)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 11:08 PM

40. We talk about the actual Presidential election, but not about the house that may or may not

 

have had some hanky panky going on. I don't know if the Senate and House elections were fair or not!

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Response to teddy51 (Reply #40)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 11:21 PM

41. Read two reports from 2010

Seems the republican won EVERY close 2010 race. And that the votes overall were greatly in favor of Democrats. But we lost many seats.

This time I think they hand picked the races where rubes live -- rubes that are a majority of people who just can't conceive of stolen elections - and they ramped it up.

But, like I said we are gaining strength and we're all over this election theft, which means they had to be careful and pick their marks with great caution.

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Response to teddy51 (Reply #25)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 10:39 PM

33. Where was the stolen election?

For Christ sakes! Tell me where it was.

Was it in the North Dakota Senate race? Or Indiana? Or Missouri? Or Connecticut? Or Virginia?

I know!!! Maybe it was in the Presidential election.

Was it in Ohio? Or Virginia? Or Colorado? Or Wisconsin? Or Pennsylvania? Or Michigan? Or New Mexico?

Where were all these stolen elections?

If you are going to screech at the top of your lungs about stolen elections on these forums every fucking four years, there are some of us who are going to call you out when there is no evidence.

Either produce the fucking evidence that the election was stolen, or shut the fuck up.

Obama won easily. Why do you go on and on and on and on and on and on and on about fucking stolen elections.

That's what the loser is supposed to do. Just like the Republicans are now.

To summarize in the immortal words of one wiser than me:


Enough said?

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Response to longship (Reply #33)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 10:55 PM

36. Just go away! You have no credentials in this argument anymore. You have proven your utter

 

ignorance in this discussion.

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Response to teddy51 (Reply #36)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 11:27 PM

43. If anyone wants to know...


At Fri Nov 23, 2012, 11:00 PM an alert was sent on the following post:

Just go away! You have no credentials in this argument anymore. You have proven your utter
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=1874870

REASON FOR ALERT:

This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate. (See <a href="http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=aboutus#communitystandards" target="_blank">Community Standards</a>.)

ALERTER'S COMMENTS:

I have argued rationally To my best without personal affront. This post goes beyond.

You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Fri Nov 23, 2012, 11:23 PM, and the Jury voted 3-3 to LEAVE IT.

Juror #1 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE and said: I agree with your perspective, and am very tired of the technological and logical ignorance shown by the poster (and, more generally, by the people on his/her side of the argument), but I don't think this particular post is beyond the pale. Assuming, as you seem to indicate, you were the target of this particular insult, your heat had a slightly different flavor, but it is roughly equivalent from my perspective.
Juror #2 voted to HIDE IT and said: I agree with the alerter; this is too much. Way over the top.
Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE and said: Guy may have been over the top, but he does have a point.
Juror #4 voted to HIDE IT and said: No explanation given
Juror #5 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE and said: Well this got feisty... But just a point of reference this post is NOT a violation of TOS maybe all the ones before it with the swears were but this is not. This is the internet... usually no one wins. As a side note I agree that it seems this election *did not* have interference but we should always GOTV to ensure we win.
Juror #6 voted to HIDE IT and said: This is tough - the post teddy51 replied to was as bad or worse. I went up the chain of the dialog beginning with #12 and decided that teddy51 is the first one to get personal, in #18, but it was a close call as longship in #16 has the last line "So where the fucking hell is this stolen election?" which is pretty intemperate but not personal (if you don't agree with that, I understand).

Thank you very much for participating in our Jury system, and we hope you will be able to participate again in the future.

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Response to longship (Reply #21)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 10:33 PM

29. "The language I am trying to shut down"???????????????????????????????????????????

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Response to WinkyDink (Reply #29)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 10:47 PM

34. There was no fucking stolen election in 2012!!!

Gees! Louise!

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Response to longship (Reply #34)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 11:03 PM

39. No thanks to you, but it certainly could have been. And if it had been! What would you have said

 

then?

Our election system needs to be fixed, and it needs to be fixed now!

Obama knew for the last four years, as did his Justice Department that we had a problem with our voting system! I certainly hope that they take some serious action to correct the problems.

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Response to teddy51 (Reply #39)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 11:27 PM

42. I entirely agree with you on this.

Although I would say that the federal courts have substantially upheld the right to vote in the instances of voter ID, etc.

Yes!!! We have to continue to fight the battles.

But screeching stolen elections when there was no demonstrable stolen election is lame.

Karl Rove was shell shocked on Fox election night because he got his info from his own skewed polls. Nothing, and I do mean nothing, tells us any different. Even Romney never prepared a concession speech. Why? Because he didn't think he would lose because of the same skewed internal polls.

It was not because of some grand conspiracy to steal the election. How do we know this? Because Nate Silver and Barack Obama knew different.

The Republicans live in their own delusional reality. They skew their polls, and some of the polling institutions skew their polls -- whether deliberately or not, who knows -- but Nate and Obama were both wanting to know the truth, whereas Romney only wanted to know he was winning.

Vive la difference. That explains everything that happened this last election cycle. There was no global steal the election conspiracy because Romney and company did not think they were losing.

That was the purpose of my first post in this thread. If you do not agree with that assessment, so be it. At least argue respectively and not fling personal attacks.

What evidence do you have that there was a stolen election?

I take it none, unless you're arguing that Dems stole it. Because we kicked the Republicans' asses.

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Response to longship (Reply #34)

Sat Nov 24, 2012, 05:09 PM

58. A dozen primary elections were electronically flipped to Romney!

 

This information is available to you.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=1848265

In the Ohio primary alone, 65, 777 votes were flipped from Santorum and Gingrich to Romney. There is a reason why their worst, most unpopular candidate won the nomination, and it isn't merely having deep pockets.

Anyhow, many elections were stolen in 2012. And your post hoc argument does not apply at all here. The certified vote counts are impossible without digital vote flipping. That's just math and science.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021603620

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Response to longship (Reply #16)

Sat Nov 24, 2012, 10:43 AM

54. Yes. He won because it wasn't close.

How many times do we have to tell you, if WE vote, WE win?

Did you miss all the discussions on how they steal close elections? We've had a bunch, all linked and annotated.

But it wasn't close. Their polling sucked and they were not prepped for a landslide. We were.

Nothing that happened in this election is inconsistent with what we know about Republican election-stealing practices. They can't win unless they cheat. They don't have the numbers and Rove-level Republicans know it.

Also, the fact that they didn't succeed doesn't mean they never geared up to try. That's like saying Japan didn't win the war so there was no Pearl Harbor. Please.

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Response to OldDem2012 (Reply #7)

Sat Nov 24, 2012, 11:46 AM

56. Two things

1 Conspiracy theories are verboten for GD

2 This is a private website, not a public forum. Freedom of speech is nice and all, but doesn't apply here.

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Response to longship (Reply #4)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 10:30 PM

28. You know who else are "thick"? Smug DU'ers who think they have a lock on the unknowable.

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Response to WinkyDink (Reply #28)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 10:57 PM

37. The unknowable?

Familiarize yourself with the Argument from ignorance.

Just click through to understand the logical fallacy you are committing. Do not feel bad about it. We all do these things. It takes practice to avoid these fallacies.

As British humorist, Peter Cook said, "I've learned from my mistakes and I can repeat them exactly."

But your argument is iconic Argument from ignorance, a logical fallacy.

Sorry, friend.

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Response to longship (Reply #4)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 11:32 PM

44. Tin Foil Hats have nothing to do with it -- it is the ugly reality of our election history

http://www.commondreams.org/views07/0320-23.htm

"Felony convictions have also resulted in 18-month prison sentences for two employees of the Cuyahoga BOE as a result of what the county prosecutor in the case calls the "rigging" of the outcome in the recount following the 2004 presidential election. Further problems surfaced in the conduct of Cuyahoga County's May, 2006 primary, in the wake of which Michel Vu, Executive Director of the county's Board of Elections recently resigned."

***

"In the 2004 presidential election, Cuyahoga County suffered serious election irregularities that worked to the disadvantage of Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry. Among them: the purging of 24.93% of all the voters in the city of Cleveland, where Kerry won 83% of the vote; mysterious and suspect vote totals for third party candidates in majority African American wards; unexplained "security" problems that caused the last-minute shift of voting locations in the inner city Cleveland Public School polling places; improbably low apparent turnouts in heavily Democratic inner city wards, and more."

***

(note the mention of 2006 above and below)

"The Free Press has learned that Brunner's office is also investigating an unexplained undercount in the 2006 general election in six Ohio counties which all used the Diebold TSX DRE voting machines. In Montgomery County, where the Democratic gubernatorial candidate Ted Strickland beat Blackwell, the Republican nominee, by 107,593 to 76,189, there was an abnormally high 13.76% of the machines registering no vote for the state's highest office. Problems are also under investigation in Adams, Darke, Highland, Mercer and Perry Counties.

"With stiff prison terms, forced resignations and widespread investigations underway, there is a well-founded sense in Ohio that much more is yet to surface about the disputed presidential election of 2004 and what has come after it."

There is no question Al Gore should have been declared the winner of the 2000 election. There is no question that after a two-year investigation following the 2004 Ohio debacle, 25% of the vote was found to have been dropped. A participant in that investigation asked the Governor if the findings would be released to the public. The Governor answered by asking (loosly quoting), "Who wants to be the one to tell the public 25% of the vote was dropped in Ohio?" The answer to that question can be found by answering this question: how many MSM sources did you hear cover this story?

Once a president has been inaugurated, the only way he or she can be removed is by high crimes and misdemeanors committed during his term in office. Convincing evidence that the election putting him or her in the Oval Office was rigged does not count.

The only reason the Republicans could not steal 2008 was because President Obama won by such a huge margin. Manipulating the totals can be done if the amount manipulated is within the margin of error posted by pollsters. President Obama's numbers were beyond that.

The Republicans motto in 2000 was win at all costs; in 2012 it was "DWIT" -- do whatever it takes. And they meant it. I personally believe stealing elections is just in their political blood. But that is not to say Democrats have a record of purity in this arena. Lyndon B. Johnson stole his first Congressional seat. Manipulating elections will always be a problem in this Country until the public demands change in how they are conducted.

So if you are wondering at this point if I think the Republicans were trying to steal 2012, you bet ya. And that is my logical brain talking, not my tin foil hat.

Sam

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Response to Samantha (Reply #44)

Sat Nov 24, 2012, 12:02 AM

45. Well, you have your facts straight there.

But If there is any evidence of a stolen election in 2012, I don't know where it is.

Certainly we saw rampant voter suppression in WI, OH, PA, and especially FL. But when the courts got involved, they were basically overturned. The SOS of OH was even compelled by a judge to appear, under judicial threat (presumably the threat of contempt -- and jail) before he stood down.

Yes!! We need voter rights to be a national agenda. As Obama said, "We have to fix this."

But since 2008, the stolen election meme has lost its power. We all know why Dems lost so many seats in the House in 2010. Not stolen elections, but Gerrymandering, which is determined by state legislatures every decade. That's another thing we can put on the agenda for 2020, when it next comes up.

In the meantime, we should all calm down. There was no rampant election fraud in any of the major positions this year. Democrats were everywhere overlooking the process. We did better than anyone predicted. That's good, but it isn't good enough.

There were long lines to vote and likely many walked away frustrated. Obama has promised that this must change. We need to hold him to it, as we will.

That's what Democrats do.

Thanks for your post.

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Response to longship (Reply #45)

Sat Nov 24, 2012, 12:33 AM

46. Thank you, and obviously the Republicans did not steal 2012

But honestly, I think they had certain "plays" in place and were going to make the effort if there was an opening.

I do not believe in politics we often see coincidences. I would like to point you to a post I wrote recently with this link:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=1788623

But here is a paragraph from that post:

"It was said pretty often before the election whoever won Hamilton County would win Ohio

But the advance publicity on the Romney family owned investments in voting machines pinpointed one with a connection to Romney's son. The one voting machine in Ohio with a Romney family connection was in Hamilton County. So to answer your question, there was a suspicion that if any tampering was done in Ohio, one of the first places would be in Hamilton County. So the theory goes, that is what Rove was thinking. Things went wrong when it became readily apparent Ohio was not going to make a difference, so the totals reported are assumed to be correct, no tampering was done because the election was lost and why take the risk if Ohio was not determinative."

There was a lot of exciting generated when Rove went into his meltdown on Fox about that network calling Ohio too early. He specifically mentioned one county still having I believe about 25% more of its votes to be counted. That county was not Cuyahoga which everyone was watching under a magnifiying glass, but Hamilton County.

I do not think that was a coincidence. Just my opinion.

Sam

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Response to Samantha (Reply #46)

Sat Nov 24, 2012, 01:46 AM

47. "46. Thank you, and obviously the Republicans did not steal 2012"

That's all I need to see. It is the very thing which supports my premise.

So just what are you arguing about? That there was a stolen election which was not stolen?

For Christ sakes! Either it was stolen or it was not. Obama won in all but one of the so-called battleground states. The exception was North Carolina.

What about that says "stolen by Republicans"?

A year ago even Democratic Party leaders said we would be lucky to hold the US Senate. Yet, thanks to Patty Murray, and Barack Obama, and the idiots in the Republican Party, the Democrats gained two seats in the US Senate. So what about this indicates that Republicans stole this election?

The Democrats defeated many teabag Republicans in the House as well, in spite of the 2010 redistricting which severely stacked the deck against us. I think it may be ten seats gained. Most prominently, it includes Tammy Duckworth easily beating Joe Walsh in Illinois, Allen West going down in FL, and progressive DUer Alan Grayson return to the House, also in FL.

The count in the House is still uncertain, but ten is likely.

So what part of this indicates that Republicans stole this election.

It seems to me that Democrats plastered the Republicans in this election. So why do so many DUers continue screech about stolen elections, or stolen election conspiracies (which, by the way, never happened)? Huh?

Read my first post in this thread again. There was never going to be a stolen election this year. I knew it months ago, really years ago. But no matter what My argument, the screechers continued with "they're gonna steal it!!!!" like chicken littles. Even after Obama won easily, they are still screeching that the sky is falling!

The sky fell, my Chicken Little friends. But let me catch you all up to date on current affairs. It fell on Mitt Romney, and it did so big time.

That's all the more I have to say about this. If you still disagree that Romney and Rove didn't steal this election, I have nothing else to disabuse you of it than to ask, why the fuck did they lose so badly?

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Response to longship (Reply #47)

Sat Nov 24, 2012, 09:44 AM

50. I think Romney defeated Romney (not to take away from the outstanding ground game of the Dems)

You say 2012 was not stolen and I did agree, but I stand my statement that the intent was there. And I do believe other things happened in other states that we will never know the resolution of, for instance, those 17,000 registered voters that were stricken from the overall register of voters in Indiana. This was discovered about three weeks before election day. It was reported that this was done by a Republican, while the primary person in charge was out of the office and would not notice. It was also reported that those 17,000 names would be restored before the election? Were they?

The Republicans were outflanked in their intention by President Obama's success in moving his margin of win outside the MOE. We will never know what would have happened if his margin had been lower. But we do know from our history there is little (if anything) the Republicans will stop at in order to grab power. And because of their own behavior, we must always stay vigilant.

And the one thing we probably will NEVER know is if there had been a complete lack of tampering just how large Obama's margin of win would have been. That to me is important, and this is where it appears we are at odds.


Sam

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Response to longship (Reply #45)

Sat Nov 24, 2012, 05:37 AM

48. Thanks to this post, I now understand where I disagree with you.

First, I agree with you on the point you keep harping on: Republicans did not steal the 2012 presidential election. Thus, I hope you won't lump me in with the "screechers" -- though I'll add that your incessant use of that term, while it may help you express your impatience, is not helpful to a reasoned discussion. My disagreement is with the heavy emphasis you place on discounting the mere possibility.

Here's your key passage:

In the meantime, we should all calm down. There was no rampant election fraud in any of the major positions this year.


The first sentence doesn't logically follow from the second. People concerned about election integrity -- integrity in the very counting of the votes, not just the voter-suppression issues -- don't need to establish that there actually was rampant fraud this year in order to make the case that reform is needed and should be a high priority.

There's ample evidence that common types of electronic voting systems might be subject to hacking. It's indisputable that many vote totals are reported from electronic machines that use proprietary software, which public election authorities have no ability to examine, let alone approve or reject. It's also indisputable that these machines afford no opportunity for independent verification of the count.

To my mind, those facts make out a clear case for action -- for not calming down. The appropriate response is agitation (both as the emotional state that's the opposite of calm, and in the sense of working for change).

If you had a dimwitted friend who lived in a high-crime area and whose front-door lock was broken, would you put a lot of emphasis on pointing out that he hadn't yet been robbed? The more sensible response would be to tell him to invest in fixing the damn lock. You don't wait for irrefutable proof in the form of an actual loss arising from the vulnerability. A burglarized apartment, or a stolen Presidency, is too high a price to pay.

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Response to Jim Lane (Reply #48)

Sat Nov 24, 2012, 10:22 AM

51. Great post!

I have stayed out of this argument so far, but I completely agree with you. That the 2012 election was not stolen is NOT the issue. I think your example of the broken lock is very appropriate. We've got to fix our locks to make sure it can't happen in the future.

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Response to longship (Reply #4)

Sat Nov 24, 2012, 10:32 AM

53. Yeah, electronic voting is completely tamper proof. Don't worry! Go back to sleep now, kiddies.



Enter Sandman.

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Response to longship (Reply #2)

Sat Nov 24, 2012, 10:27 AM

52. Simplistic and not backed up with any evidence at all.

Whereas evidence of innumerable attempts steal the election across key swing states has been published by serious people. There are just so many that it's difficult for the very linear to grasp.

You want one clear cut and dried action but that WOULD be easy to detect. Which is why it's done differently.

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Response to aquart (Reply #52)

Sat Nov 24, 2012, 10:45 AM

55. It didn't seem to have worked

There was no stolen election in any of the battleground state since Obama won all but one. The exception was NC, which everybody knew would be tough this year.

But if you've been here at DU this year and had been paying attention, you'd know that.

So this stolen election stuff is just a bunch of crapola. Obama won. There was no overt attempt other than voter suppression which the GOP does every election cycle. If there were any other, indetectable, magical attempts to turn this election they don't seem to have worked.

Or, you can more safely say it this way: there was no apparent stolen election attempt this cycle.

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Response to longship (Reply #55)

Sat Nov 24, 2012, 05:15 PM

59. There were stolen elections. In the primaries.

 

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 07:50 PM

6. I wish the geniuses behind the scenes would stop giving away such sensitive info.

This is a sport after all, you don't mail your playbook to the opposing teams coaches. It should be patented and distributed to National & local Dem campaigns.

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Response to JaneyVee (Reply #6)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 10:48 PM

35. + 1,000 n/t

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 08:20 PM

9. Interesting, THANKS. nt

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Fri Nov 23, 2012, 10:38 PM

32. Great reading! thanks for posting this.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Nov 24, 2012, 12:36 PM

57. it seems the biggest disconnect was simply focusing on the national instead of state numbers

obama pretty much always had a clear edge in the battleground states and therefore in the electoral college. he didn't always seem to have an edge nationally, but that really doesn't matter the way we run our presidential elections.

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Response to unblock (Reply #57)

Sat Nov 24, 2012, 09:39 PM

60. Something different happened this year.

National pollsters used to assume that state numbers would fall into line with national public opinion. This year, the opposite happened with the national polls swinging to Obama at the end to line up with the state polls.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Nov 24, 2012, 09:54 PM

61. This was a great OP.

Much of the stuff after that... not so much. oofda.

Thank you for this. Just wanted you to know.

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