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Sun Nov 18, 2012, 06:08 PM

This is One Of Those Times I am Praying Nate silver is wrong .

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/16/democrats-unlikely-to-regain-house-in-2014/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
ughhh

21 replies, 2221 views

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Reply This is One Of Those Times I am Praying Nate silver is wrong . (Original post)
outsideworld Nov 2012 OP
graham4anything Nov 2012 #1
RomneyLies Nov 2012 #2
bluerum Nov 2012 #3
ewagner Nov 2012 #4
Sekhmets Daughter Nov 2012 #6
Egalitarian Thug Nov 2012 #5
bluestate10 Nov 2012 #11
Little Star Nov 2012 #14
Egalitarian Thug Nov 2012 #19
Skinner Nov 2012 #7
bluestate10 Nov 2012 #9
bluestate10 Nov 2012 #8
Honeycombe8 Nov 2012 #10
elleng Nov 2012 #12
liberalmuse Nov 2012 #13
BlueMan Votes Nov 2012 #17
BlueMan Votes Nov 2012 #15
KittyWampus Nov 2012 #16
CTyankee Nov 2012 #18
dsc Nov 2012 #20
treestar Nov 2012 #21

Response to outsideworld (Original post)

Sun Nov 18, 2012, 06:10 PM

1. 2014 needs to be 2008 and 2012 instead of 2010

 

the people who are saying we should give another election a rest don't realize that the repubs are already in full gear

We need to stock every single position from school board, election board to house and senate with great candidates, NOW

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Response to outsideworld (Original post)

Sun Nov 18, 2012, 06:10 PM

2. Nope, he's right. It doesn't mean the dynamic cannot be changed

 

It will take a lot of hard work.

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Response to outsideworld (Original post)

Sun Nov 18, 2012, 06:12 PM

3. Very early projections - if you can even call them that.

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Response to outsideworld (Original post)

Sun Nov 18, 2012, 06:14 PM

4. Gerrymandering has had an awful effect

here in Wisconsin we're going to have a tough time in 2014

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Response to ewagner (Reply #4)

Sun Nov 18, 2012, 06:17 PM

6. Here is FL as well...

but if we can keep the dynamic of this election going it may help. One thing, I think our minority communities could be quite energized to get rid of Gov. Valdemort Scott....the suppressionist.

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Response to outsideworld (Original post)

Sun Nov 18, 2012, 06:15 PM

5. The Obama administration and the Democratic Party have the ability to turn this around.

 

Win or lose, 2014 is up to them.

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Response to Egalitarian Thug (Reply #5)

Sun Nov 18, 2012, 06:32 PM

11. THis is the same shit people were saying after our 2008 victories gave us the Presidency, House

and a near super-majority in the Senate. The problem is the President is not a dictator and Hose and Senate majorities aren't complete unless they are over-whelming. We need to get out and vote in 2014, if we do, we can re-take the House and increase our numbers in the Senate.

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Response to bluestate10 (Reply #11)

Sun Nov 18, 2012, 07:02 PM

14. Those people were not Nate Silver. But at least there's time to turn this around....

I look at this as a warning and warnings can be a good thing.

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Response to bluestate10 (Reply #11)

Mon Nov 19, 2012, 12:22 AM

19. Yeah, keep whining that same fucking tune.

 

When are you people going to wake up and realize that it is up to the party and its leadership to bring people together by working for what they want? You can cry about how it is up to us until there is nothing left to save, let alone aspire to, and it won't make one bit of difference.

People are what they are, and they are going to do what they are going to do, and there's nothing you can say that will change that. Give them a reason to vote for us, or live with the disaster you helped to make.

The Democratic party cannot count on the republicans to keep nominating insane idiots forever. They are already talking about "Too white, too right, and too uptight", and when they come out with candidates that appear reasonable and reflective of what America is, the Democrats are going to get the shit beat out of them again, and the people that keep feeding this nonsense are going to, as usual, be absolutely shocked and surprised at the fact that they are outside looking in again.

Let me say this slowly so that you can understand; The problem is not that the people just don't get it, the problem is that the Democratic party is not offering any alternative.

The voters have voted for change in last 4 elections. If the Democrats don't deliver the change they have promised, the voters will vote for the other guys that, I guarantee you, will be promising it to them.

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Response to outsideworld (Original post)

Sun Nov 18, 2012, 06:19 PM

7. He's very likely right.

In a non-presidential year, the party that holds the White House usually loses seats in the House.

Our only hope is if the GOP goes completely off the deep end. (See Clinton, Impeachment of.)

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Response to Skinner (Reply #7)

Sun Nov 18, 2012, 06:26 PM

9. He is not right if we stay engaged. nt

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Response to outsideworld (Original post)

Sun Nov 18, 2012, 06:24 PM

8. We need to stay engaged during all mid-terms. Even people like Ed Schultz realize that now.

Ed was famous along with Cenk for advising democrats to sit out the 2010 mid-terms. Ed even went as far as to make heroes of people that came on television saying that they would sit out the 2010 mid-terms. Look at what sitting out got us.

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Response to outsideworld (Original post)

Sun Nov 18, 2012, 06:29 PM

10. There's typically low turnout for mid-term elections, except for older people. Since there are so

many seats needed to pick up to be a majority, it's unlikely, seems to me.

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Response to outsideworld (Original post)

Sun Nov 18, 2012, 06:37 PM

12. All of us. Remember, 'unlikely' not 'impossible.'

We've got work to do.

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Response to outsideworld (Original post)

Sun Nov 18, 2012, 07:00 PM

13. Unless we push for Federal election laws...

that not only stop but reverse the ridiculous gerrymandering that has already been done by Republican State Legislatures, I fear he is 91% correct.

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Response to liberalmuse (Reply #13)

Sun Nov 18, 2012, 07:11 PM

17. Democratic State Legislatures gerrymander just as well...

 

take a look at the 4th congressional district in illinois:




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Response to outsideworld (Original post)

Sun Nov 18, 2012, 07:06 PM

15. GOTV efforts need to start now.

 

if the repukes continue to play the obstructionists- all the better.

if we have more 'freakish' weather events that have been predicted to go along with climate change- that could affect how people vote.

maybe staten island is on it's way to a blue future...

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Response to outsideworld (Original post)

Sun Nov 18, 2012, 07:09 PM

16. He's probably right but that doesn't mean we can't change things. That's the value of his work

it gives a snap shot of the very recent PAST not the future.

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Response to outsideworld (Original post)

Sun Nov 18, 2012, 07:14 PM

18. Work more. Work harder.

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Response to outsideworld (Original post)

Mon Nov 19, 2012, 12:36 AM

20. sadly he is likely quite correct

We do have some redistricting we can do, in 2012 we got the Minnesota legislature back, and maybe the NY Senate. In Minnesota we could get at best 2 seats out of that and in NY we could get another 2 seats. But as Nate says we have only 11 seats that we lost by less than 5 points. These lines are killer and mostly in place until at least 2014. We could win it back in 2016.

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Response to outsideworld (Original post)

Mon Nov 19, 2012, 05:13 AM

21. Democrats need to start voting in off year elections

Rather than sitting on their asses complaining.

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