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Sat Nov 17, 2012, 12:48 AM

Now for the bad news for us from 2010 and 2012 (How the South cost us the House)

Last edited Sat Nov 17, 2012, 01:32 AM - Edit history (1)

We didn't win Congress, largely thanks to gerrymandering but we do have one big problem region. The South. We had a net loss of percent of seats in that region in 2012 (the only region where that happened).

Here is the post election breakdown with the assumption we will win those races we lead in.

Alabama 6 GOP 1 Dem no change
Arkansas 4 GOP 0 Dem Dem down 1 GOP up 1
Florida 17 GOP 10 Dem Dem plus 4 GOP minus 1 (more seats in 12 than 08)
Georgia 9 GOP 5 Dem GOP plus 1 (again new seat was gain for state)
Kentucky 5 GOP 1 Dem Dem down 1 GOP up 1
Louisiana 5 GOP 1 Dem GOP lost 1 seat (state lost seat)
Mississippi 3 GOP 1 Dem no change
N Carolina 9 GOP 4 Dem dems down 3 GOP up 3
S Carolina 6 GOP 1 Dem GOP up 1 Dem no change
Tennessee 7 GOP 2 Dem no change
Texas 24 GOP 12 Dem GOP up 1 Dem up 3
Virginia GOP 8 Dem 3 no change
Oklahoma 5 GOP 0 Dem GOP up 1 Dem down 1

Total GOP 108 Dem 41 GOP up 7 Dem plus 1

And remember this was an election after we had already taken huge losses.

We have two states with 0 Democratic Congressmen, 4 with 1 Democratic Congressman each, and one with only 2. Frankly, I don't know what the cure for this is. Redistricting can only do so much since under the voting rights act we have to have some majority minority seats which definitely limits our ability to gerrymander. We have to do better though, than spotting the GOP 67 seats in one region of the country. This region wipes out New England where we have 21 seats to their 0, the mid atlantic where we have 40 seats to their 25 and the pacific coast 47 seats to 20. Total (108 to 45)

Our wipe out in the South is a large part of why the GOP has the Congress.

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Arrow 13 replies Author Time Post
Reply Now for the bad news for us from 2010 and 2012 (How the South cost us the House) (Original post)
dsc Nov 2012 OP
Sinistrous Nov 2012 #1
dsc Nov 2012 #2
bottomofthehill Nov 2012 #3
LonePirate Nov 2012 #4
dsc Nov 2012 #13
WhaTHellsgoingonhere Nov 2012 #5
Are_grits_groceries Nov 2012 #6
cali Nov 2012 #8
Are_grits_groceries Nov 2012 #9
cali Nov 2012 #7
ProSense Nov 2012 #10
dsc Nov 2012 #11
mick063 Nov 2012 #12

Response to dsc (Original post)

Sat Nov 17, 2012, 01:09 AM

1. I knew it was bad, but WOW!

Thanks for posting.

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Response to Sinistrous (Reply #1)

Sat Nov 17, 2012, 01:21 AM

2. It is very bad

We don't have the majority in even one state, even states carried by Obama twice have delegations that are over 60% GOP. We don't have a single white Democratic Representative in AR, MS, AL, SC, or OK. We have one in TN but he represents a majority minority district.

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Response to dsc (Original post)

Sat Nov 17, 2012, 02:08 AM

3. Minority Voters in the south are often packed into single districts

It does two things, almost insures minority representation (Cohen in Tenn is an exception to the rule) and wipes out the Democratic party in the non-urban south

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Response to dsc (Original post)

Sat Nov 17, 2012, 02:22 AM

4. It's not just the US House. The vast majority of white voters in the South never vote for Democrats

The state legislatures of all of these states are heavily Republican. Statewide office holders in these states are heavily Republican. The US Senate representation from these states is heavily Republican.

We have to find a way to win over more of the white vote in the South. I have no idea how to do that short of strengthening our positions in the city centers and moving out to the suburbs and exurbs where we are being slaughtered.

It's a cultural mindset we need to overcome.

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Response to LonePirate (Reply #4)

Sat Nov 17, 2012, 02:06 PM

13. until 2010 ours was heavily Democratic

we even survived the 1994 election. But now we will likely never see a Democratic legislature in NC again.

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Response to dsc (Original post)

Sat Nov 17, 2012, 06:09 AM

5. Excellent breakdown. Thanks!

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Response to dsc (Original post)

Sat Nov 17, 2012, 06:22 AM

6. And guess what?

It's going to get worse unless there is a collective effort to help the Dems in those states. All of them had a decent % that voted for Obama. Discounting that number of voters is stupid.

Demographically the South and West are growing. They gained seats and the northeast lost them. That will continue. You can post eleventy billion charts and scream about those people after every election as the House is lost.

Or you can help those who are trying to sway younger voters and transplants before they are trapped in the clutches of the GOP.

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Response to Are_grits_groceries (Reply #6)

Sat Nov 17, 2012, 06:27 AM

8. What? No, all of them did not have decent percentages that voted for the president

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Response to cali (Reply #8)

Sat Nov 17, 2012, 07:45 AM

9. Wait! Whut?

You don't consider 40% a decent %. That is a large number of people to start with, AND since they voted for Obama i'd consider those people to be fairly solid. I am looking at the Southern states.

You aren't starting from 10 or even 25 percent.

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Response to dsc (Original post)

Sat Nov 17, 2012, 06:26 AM

7. Nothing illustrates more clearly how divided we are

and I don't see what we can do about it either- beyond wiping them out more in CA and the Pacific Coast as well as in other states in the Industrial midwest.

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Response to dsc (Original post)

Sat Nov 17, 2012, 09:23 AM

10. Overall, Democrats picked up at least six seats

and won the popular vote.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2012

Check out the map at the link.

GOP held the House strictly on gerrymandering.

There is work to do, but 2014 is not going to be 2010.

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Response to ProSense (Reply #10)

Sat Nov 17, 2012, 12:05 PM

11. If we had picked up 15 more seats in the South

then gerrymandering wouldn't have saved them. To some extent the gerrymandering is intertwined (NC, VA, TX, and TN) but some states are not (AK, MS, AL, SC). The fact is that spotting the GOP close to 70 seats in one region makes the House a very uphill climb.

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Response to dsc (Original post)

Sat Nov 17, 2012, 12:10 PM

12. My prediction

 

The fear of demographic changes will become the new Southern hysteria.

The Southern states will pass even more draconian immigration laws, independent of federal reforms, in an effort to keep their representatives "white" far in to the future.

This will not be much different than current voter suppression laws.

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