Thu Nov 15, 2012, 07:09 PM
nixonwasbetterthanW (1,195 posts)
If the GOP believes Ryan's election analysis, Republicans will never win again
When he blames urban turnout for the loss, he really doesn't understand the results. Others have posted about how Iowa and New Hampshire.
But look at the twin colossi of New York and California.
It's the conventional wisdom that those Blue giants are hopelessly out of reach for the Reds because of their huge urban centers.
But guess what? Take away the overwhelmingly Blue margins in New York City, Long Island, Westchester County, Albany County, Onondaga County (Syracuse), Erie County (Buffalo) and Monroe County (Rochester), and Obama STILL would have carried the state (though barely). Same is true if you take away L.A. County and the seven counties that border the San Francisco Bay: Obama still carries California.
It's true that the Blues still need Philly to take Pennsylvania and Cleveland to win Ohio. But the gap outside the urban cores is a lot narrower than people like Ryan may think.
Even in Ryan's home state of Wisconsin, the Blues could have sacrificed their margins in either Milwaukee County or Dane County (Madison) and still ended up taking the Badger State.
6 replies, 950 views
If the GOP believes Ryan's election analysis, Republicans will never win again (Original post)
|Jackpine Radical||Nov 2012||#3|
Response to ladjf (Reply #1)
Thu Nov 15, 2012, 08:29 PM
bluestate10 (10,736 posts)
4. Ryan is stupid. His tactic when challenged on details is that it would take too long for him
to explain. Someone should challenge that asshole by saying they have a recorder and all the time he needs.
Response to nixonwasbetterthanW (Original post)
Thu Nov 15, 2012, 08:10 PM
dtom67 (633 posts)
2. don't believe it ...
My prediction is that 2014 will be a repeat of 2010.
Big GOP wins in the House and Senate.
That is why Dems need to push right now for what they want.
Ever notice that when Dems win an election, all you hear in the media is ".. bi-partisan ".. this and "bipartisan" that... but republican winners get a "mandate" or "political capital" from the press?
Some of you need to drop this "sacred cow" attitude toward the president and petition your reps to mak sure we don't get sold out in a grand bargain. If that happens, you could be looking at a red Senate as well as the House.
Response to dtom67 (Reply #2)
Thu Nov 15, 2012, 08:21 PM
Jackpine Radical (39,724 posts)
3. 2014 hangs on what people see between now & then.
2010 happened as it did because people didn't see the dramatic changes they had hoped for. For example, much of the ACA doesn't kick in until 2014.
I'm not saying their hopes were realistic, but they were unfulfilled, and people didn't so much switch allegiance to the Republicans as just stay home. I was getting that message very clearly when I was phone banking for Feingold, and wrote about it at the time. Everybody jumped all over me when I posted my observations here, mostly blaming the voters.
Well, sure, a lot of the (non-)voters behaved stupidly (and we got Walker et al. as a consequence), but they are what they are and you don't get anywhere just wishing for "a better class of voter."