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Mon Nov 12, 2012, 09:36 AM

Rasmussen Explains What Went Wrong

Rasmussen Explains What Went Wrong

Rasmussen Reports, which had Mitt Romney leading President Obama on the final day of the presidential campaign and picked the winner in just three of nine swing states, explains:

"A preliminary review indicates that one reason for this is that we underestimated the minority share of the electorate. In 2008, 26% of voters were non-white. We expected that to remain relatively constant. However, in 2012, 28% of voters were non-white. That was exactly the share projected by the Obama campaign. It is not clear at the moment whether minority turnout increased nationally, white turnout decreased, or if it was a combination of both. The increase in minority turnout has a significant impact on the final projections since Romney won nearly 60% of white votes while Obama won an even larger share of the minority vote."

"Another factor may be related to the generation gap. It is interesting to note that the share of seniors who showed up to vote was down slightly from 2008 while the number of young voters was up slightly."

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/weekly_updates/what_they_told_us_reviewing_last_week_s_key_polls2
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/11/12/rasmussen_explains_what_went_wrong.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+PoliticalWire+%28Political+Wire%29

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Arrow 11 replies Author Time Post
Reply Rasmussen Explains What Went Wrong (Original post)
kpete Nov 2012 OP
Firebirds01 Nov 2012 #1
valerief Nov 2012 #2
Horse with no Name Nov 2012 #3
DemocratSinceBirth Nov 2012 #5
yardwork Nov 2012 #4
BeyondGeography Nov 2012 #6
cleduc Nov 2012 #7
sellitman Nov 2012 #8
edhopper Nov 2012 #9
SDjack Nov 2012 #11
grantcart Nov 2012 #10

Response to kpete (Original post)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 09:37 AM

1. So in other words

 

They just polled reliable republican voters. I bet they made a lot of money off of telling RWers what they wanted to hear.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 09:38 AM

2. Of course, the TRUTH is that RW Raz tried to sway the vote to the right. nt

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 09:38 AM

3. You are now delegated to being irrelevant

your polls should NOT be included in any national polling anymore.

You attempted to sway a national election.

The information was out there and you got.it.all.wrong.

Others got it right...why was this?

Perhaps because they weren't promoting one party's agenda and ideology over another?

Suck on it Rasmussen. You have no credibility.

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Response to Horse with no Name (Reply #3)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 09:41 AM

5. I Want Repugs To Keep Following Ras. Therefore They Will Keep Losing./nt

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 09:39 AM

4. Constant racist attacks by Republicans motivated people of color to vote against them.

Who could have predicted?

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 09:41 AM

6. Whatever

At least you sucked a little less than Gallup, Scott.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 09:47 AM

7. Rasmussen has had GOP bias issues since at least 2008

I don't buy their explanation. Maintaining the perception that the race is close is important for campaign financing and holding the media from pushing the advantage the Dems had.

Gravis, ARG and others put their finger on the scale to weigh down the polls of polls in battleground states - Rasmussen could only count one poll in most poll of polls.

The result of that kept the money flowing to the GOP campaign and the pundits open to the perception of a "close race".

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 09:58 AM

8. Keeping the RW ignorant one poll at a time

Keep up the good work Rasmussen!

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 10:03 AM

9. Why back in 1912

0nly white men were voting, so we saw no need to adjust.

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Response to edhopper (Reply #9)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 11:11 AM

11. The county GOP bosses were suppressing the vote. Not

Raz' fault that their dam broke and the minorities rushed the polls and deposited their ballots.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 10:06 AM

10. Can't wait for Gravis' explanation lol

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