HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » General Discussion (Forum) » Just how serious is this ...
Introducing Discussionist: A new forum by the creators of DU

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 07:21 PM

Just how serious is this "fiscal cliff"?


There is no doubt in my mind but that the President wants to do what is right for this country. He is not partisan about it.

He would not do anything that he thought would make this economy worse or send us back into a recession. He is willing to compromise with the Republicans to prevent that.

But the Republicans know that about this President. He believes that Democrats and Republicans should work together to fix the problems of our country. The Republicans see that as an advantage for them.

That is why he has said that everything is on the table.

But what happens if nothing is done by December 31st?

Boehner and the Repubs do not want the cuts in the military. They also do not want to raise any taxes on the wealthy. They say they want to close loopholes but those are not "Mitt Romney loopholes". Those are loopholes for the middle-class.

They will find a way to separate the military spending from the present bill and will pass a separate bill to keep the funding where it is presently. They will not address the tax issue because that is something they will not compromise upon. The President will sign any military spending bill that they pass. He is not looking for a political fight.

The bottom line is that the President wants a deal worse than the House Republicans want a deal. They know that. The President is trying to do his job. Republicans are trying to do politics. And never the twain shall meet.

So, how serious is it if taxes go up on January 1st. Estate taxes go up. Capital gains taxes go up. The top rate on the wealthy goes up about 3 1/2%. The middle class will mostly see their taxes go up by about 5%. The payroll tax will cease to exist so even the poorest workers will see their taxes go up. It's hard to see how this would not affect the economy negatively.

However, it will not be a drop off a cliff. It will be more like a slow slide downward.

But if the Repubs pass a bill to keep the taxcuts in place for the middle class, then the economy would hardly notice. The middle and working class would still have money to spend. The taxes on the wealthy is not something that would go to help our economy.

So, the President must push to keep the middle class tax cut at this time or if the Repubs let it expire, then he must push them to pass something similar in the new Congress. The President can not pass the tax bill - he can only let it expire. He can jawbone and use the bully pulpit but that is the extent of his power on this tax issue.

So, what should he do? What will he do?

18 replies, 1203 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 18 replies Author Time Post
Reply Just how serious is this "fiscal cliff"? (Original post)
kentuck Nov 2012 OP
Autumn Nov 2012 #1
kentuck Nov 2012 #3
Autumn Nov 2012 #5
elleng Nov 2012 #2
kentuck Nov 2012 #4
elleng Nov 2012 #8
kentuck Nov 2012 #9
andym Nov 2012 #6
savebigbird Nov 2012 #7
ProudProgressiveNow Nov 2012 #11
msongs Nov 2012 #10
jberryhill Nov 2012 #12
kentuck Nov 2012 #14
jberryhill Nov 2012 #15
kentuck Nov 2012 #16
savebigbird Nov 2012 #17
jberryhill Nov 2012 #18
Fire Walk With Me Nov 2012 #13

Response to kentuck (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 07:27 PM

1. About as serious as boners tan.

Let the fucking tax cuts expire, run over Mitch's dog and kick Boners ass.

( Sorry about the dog, I owe that one to my republican SIL, in no way do I personally want any dogs ran over)

He can go everywhere and shout it to the ceiling that republicans are the ones who did this.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Autumn (Reply #1)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 07:31 PM

3. How will it affect the economy?

What will the President do?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to kentuck (Reply #3)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 07:35 PM

5. Those taxes for the wealthy have to go somewhere.

As for the middle class tax cuts, the repukes will feel the pressure, I haven't a clue what Obama will do. I hope he doesn't negotiate, because we should not negotiate with terrorists.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to kentuck (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 07:30 PM

2. If they can't come to agreement,

that is, if repugs fail to get their acts together, tax cuts will expire January 1, and hopefully repugs will feel pressure from their constituents. If nothing is done until after inaugural and next Congress, there's another chance.

If/when agreement is arrived at after Jan. 1, measures in the agreement can be made retroactive.

IF no agreement for long enough period of time, adverse effects of tax increases and 'sequestration' will be felt on economy. After that,

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to elleng (Reply #2)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 07:33 PM

4. Do you actually believe the President would permit that to happen?


The Repubs know how to read him. They've done it before.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to kentuck (Reply #4)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 07:44 PM

8. If they refuse to be rational, PrezO won't agree.

It's not likely it will last very long, but they may have to see that he means what he says and is willing to accept the consequences.

We the People will recognize who is responsible for lack of rationality, especially if PrezO takes it on the road.

They 'read' him before he and we thought they'd go as far as they did, that is, 'Make him a one term President,' but now we all know, and with a 2d term, he's more free to use his words and authority.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to elleng (Reply #8)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 07:47 PM

9. When have they ever been rational?

Why should anyone expect them to be now?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to kentuck (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 07:35 PM

6. CBO says -0.5% GDP (recession) and 9.1% unemployment

if we go over the fiscal cliff completely.
There are analyses of the contribution of each policy change.
Basically anything that raises taxes on the middle class or lowers government spending will reduce the GDP and raise unemployment, given assumptions that consumer spending and government spending contribute to GDP growth.

http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43694
http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/11-08-12-FiscalTightening.pdf

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to kentuck (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 07:37 PM

7. Who does Boehner think he is?

The President of the United States? It's time POTUS puts him in his place. REALLY. I think America has had enough of this stick in the mud.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to savebigbird (Reply #7)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 07:50 PM

11. +1 nt

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to kentuck (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 07:48 PM

10. democrats have bought into republican framing on a non-issue in the big picture nt

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to kentuck (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 08:03 PM

12. Let it all expire - pass middle class relief after


I want to see the GOP oppose a clean middle class tax cut. Period.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to jberryhill (Reply #12)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 08:08 PM

14. Do not negotiate anything until after December 31st.

That would be a good rule of thumb.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to kentuck (Reply #14)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 08:23 PM

15. Unless some lame ducks want to lay golden eggs

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to jberryhill (Reply #15)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 08:40 PM

16. I notice that Boehner is asking all the Repubs to "Get In Line"?

Just like before.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to kentuck (Reply #16)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 11:03 PM

17. They'll do it...

...if they want to kiss their seats goodbye in 2014. America is sick and tired of their Lemming-like ways.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to kentuck (Reply #16)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 01:36 AM

18. He can't deliver

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to kentuck (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 08:08 PM

13. They must slash spending, which does not include social security.

 

Slash significantly the military-industrial complex and its endless war budget; retrieve the bailout money printed up for banksters and Wall Street executives! That should free trillions upon trillions of dollars and the problem is solved.

Of course, forcing the people to pay for the bankster bailout theft and the bill for Bush's endless wars is just more theft. Steal our tax dollars for bailouts and wars, then steal our tax dollars again. "austerity" is nothing more than an orchestrated, criminal act. I shall resist it with all of my will.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread