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Fri Nov 9, 2012, 04:20 PM

Another Popular Vote Milestone - Margin of Victory

For most of the day, Obama's been flirting with an interesting number: a 3,012,000 lead in the popular vote.

Why is 3,012,000 interesting?

Bush's margin of victory over John Kerry was 3,012,166.

Obama passed and then fell back on 3,012,000 a few times today, but I think now he might have passed it definitively. Obama currently leads in the popular vote by

3,022,258 according to the CNN count as of 3:20 pm CST.

Because the total vote remains lower than 2004's final tally at present, that raw vote margin is also a higher percentage margin than Bush's victory over Kerry.

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Reply Another Popular Vote Milestone - Margin of Victory (Original post)
alcibiades_mystery Nov 2012 OP
alcibiades_mystery Nov 2012 #1
CakeGrrl Nov 2012 #2
democrattotheend Nov 2012 #3
alcibiades_mystery Nov 2012 #4
democrattotheend Nov 2012 #5
alcibiades_mystery Nov 2012 #6
dem4ward Nov 2012 #7

Response to alcibiades_mystery (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 04:45 PM

1. Big Numbers Coming in NOW

Obama increases his popular vote margin to

3,071,177

Nice.

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Response to alcibiades_mystery (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 04:46 PM

2. I don't think the MSM will be taking up the "mandate" topic any more.

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Response to CakeGrrl (Reply #2)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 05:43 PM

3. It was a clear and decisive victory, but not a huge mandate

Not like 2008. In terms of how much of a mandate an election is, the popular vote is what matters, not the electoral count. And the popular vote was not a squeaker but it was close. I don't think we do any good denying that.

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Response to democrattotheend (Reply #3)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 06:05 PM

4. I think the poster is commenting on the disparate coverage

Obama beat Romney by more in the popular vote than Bush beat Kerry. Bush was given a free pass by the press on declaring that a mandate, so even worrying about that question seems like a good bit of navel-gazing.

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Response to alcibiades_mystery (Reply #4)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 06:48 PM

5. I don't remember it being spun that way, exactly

I recall that in 2004 the media spun it as a mandate in the sense that unlike in 2004, Bush won the popular vote and his victory was clear, unlike in 2000. But I do remember a lot of commentators pointing out that it was close. I don't remember it being spun as a landslide or a sweeping mandate.

The big difference between 2004 and now is that Bush's party had both houses of Congress in 2004 and the Republicans made gains in the House and Senate, so the election was viewed as a mandate for the Republican agenda even though it was close.

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Response to alcibiades_mystery (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 08:01 PM

6. Margin continues to widen

Obama now up on Romney

3,108,468

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Response to alcibiades_mystery (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 08:32 PM

7. So what would constitute a mandate then?

 

If these #'s aren't.

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