HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » General Discussion (Forum) » Gallup Tries to Defend It...
Introducing Discussionist: A new forum by the creators of DU

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 01:54 PM

Gallup Tries to Defend Its Polling

(emphasis mine)


As our tradition has been in presidential election years, Gallup's focus this year was on producing an estimate of the national popular vote. We don’t “predict” the election, nor do we make estimates of the Electoral College. In the end, Gallup's national popular vote estimate was that the popular vote was too close to call, a statistical tie -- 50% for Mitt Romney, 49% for Barack Obama. When the dust settled, Romney got 48% of the popular vote and Obama received 50%, meaning that Gallup’s percentage-point estimate was within two percentage points for Romney and within one point for Obama. The “gap” difference was three points. All of these are well within the statistical margin of error and underscore the accuracy of random sampling today, even with all of the challenges provided by changing forms of communication (i.e., cellphones), changing demographics, lowered response rates, identifying likely voters, and a wide variety of other factors.

We would always like to make a final poll estimate that is exactly on target with the final popular vote percentage for both candidates. That is the goal. But our estimate (and almost all other national polls at the end), gave a broadly accurate picture of what was, in fact, a very close popular vote.

.
.
.

We do believe that the presidential campaign underwent significant changes as it progressed this year. Romney clearly gained as a result of the first debate in Denver, and he held onto at least a marginal lead position in our polling until the week before the election, when Superstorm Sandy hit. Obama gained five points on the gap between our last pre-storm polling and the final poll. It may be that he continued to gain on into Election Day.
.
.
.



The bolded part, my DU friends, is commonly referred to as "Covering Ones Ass"

Much more at the link:

http://pollingmatters.gallup.com/

8 replies, 1071 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 8 replies Author Time Post
Reply Gallup Tries to Defend Its Polling (Original post)
scheming daemons Nov 2012 OP
BeyondGeography Nov 2012 #1
Whisp Nov 2012 #2
Dawgs Nov 2012 #3
qanda Nov 2012 #4
closeupready Nov 2012 #5
Tutonic Nov 2012 #6
NuttyFluffers Nov 2012 #7
SDjack Nov 2012 #8

Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 01:56 PM

1. Fire Frank Newport

Then get back to me.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 01:59 PM

2. take your horses and gallop the hell out of this business

 

which you fail at.

fuck off into the sunset

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 02:01 PM

3. Ha! How do they explain that every other poll got it right?

Those other polls didn't need to make large adjustments, or blame it on some storm.

And yet, they were still off in the end.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 02:04 PM

4. They were terrible

They added to the myth that Romney was going to win and they should be ashamed.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 02:04 PM

5. I'm hardly a political expert, but I've watched this

game played for several election cycles, and Gallup just continually fails - whether from unforgiveable sampling errors or wildly inaccurate readings.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 02:11 PM

6. OK that explanation was like trying to fill a sinkhole with a bucket of gravy.

N/T

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 02:22 PM

7. "the crack pipe told me so!"

"it whispers the numbers to me, and my 1% overlord master verifies it with his checks..."

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 03:28 PM

8. Defend this: Gallup always shades to the right on every issue. How

is that random noise?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread