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Fri Nov 9, 2012, 11:39 AM

President Obama won the Cuban vote.

Pew: Latino Vote Share Outperformed 2008 Levels In Florida, Colorado, Nevada

The Latino vote represented 10 percent of the nationwide 2012 electorate, a tick up from 9 percent in 2008, but it moved up even more in some key swing states: Florida, Colorado and Nevada. From their report:

Obama carried Florida’s Hispanic vote 60% to 39%, an improvement over his 57% to 42% showing in 2008. Also, Hispanics made up 17% of the Florida electorate this year, up from 14% in 2008.

The state’s growing non-Cuban population—especially growth in the Puerto Rican population in central Florida—contributed to the President’s improved showing among Hispanic voters. This year, according to the Florida exit poll, 34% of Hispanic voters were Cuban while 57% were non-Cuban. Among Cuban voters, the vote was split—49% supported Obama while 47% supported Romney. Among the state’s non-Cuban voters, Obama won 66% versus 34% for Romney.

Check out the historical data for Latino voters in key battlegrounds complied by the Pew Hispanic Center:

- more -

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/pew-latino-vote-share-outperformed-2008-levels-in

Of course, the WSJ is trying to find a silver lining:

Cuban-Americans Move Left

The Wall Street Journal notes that Cuban-born voters living in Florida voted for Mitt Romney, 55% to 45%.

However, American-born Cubans voted overwhelmingly for President Obama, 60% to 40%.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/11/09/cuban-americans_move_left.html

Summary: Mitt/Republicans lost the Cuban vote.

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Arrow 27 replies Author Time Post
Reply President Obama won the Cuban vote. (Original post)
ProSense Nov 2012 OP
Jennicut Nov 2012 #1
ProSense Nov 2012 #3
HooptieWagon Nov 2012 #2
ProSense Nov 2012 #4
HooptieWagon Nov 2012 #6
ProSense Nov 2012 #8
HooptieWagon Nov 2012 #10
ProSense Nov 2012 #12
HooptieWagon Nov 2012 #14
ProSense Nov 2012 #15
HooptieWagon Nov 2012 #17
ProSense Nov 2012 #18
Daniel537 Nov 2012 #25
ProSense Nov 2012 #26
Daniel537 Nov 2012 #27
ProSense Nov 2012 #5
HooptieWagon Nov 2012 #11
ProSense Nov 2012 #13
HooptieWagon Nov 2012 #16
ProSense Nov 2012 #19
HooptieWagon Nov 2012 #20
Daniel537 Nov 2012 #21
HooptieWagon Nov 2012 #22
Daniel537 Nov 2012 #23
pinto Nov 2012 #7
HooptieWagon Nov 2012 #9
Luminous Animal Nov 2012 #24

Response to ProSense (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 11:44 AM

1. ProSense, you are back!

How are you doing?

Dems have appeal to the younger Cubans in Florida now, which is great for the future of Dems there. Pretty amazing but once again, demos hurt Repubs. The young Cubans born here are less conservative then their parents and have now come of age.

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Response to Jennicut (Reply #1)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 11:47 AM

3. I'm well and life is back to normal with

heat and light. That'll help as I go through the process of repairing the damage to the house.

Still, very lucky by comparison to those who saw the worst of the storm.

Thanks.



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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 11:46 AM

2. No he didn't. Romney won Cubano vote 49-47.

The article is correct that each successive generation votes more D than previous. And Obama did win the Hispanic vote overall, which includes Puerto Ricans, Venezuelans, Colombians, Dominicans, Mexicans, Brazilians, etc.

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Response to HooptieWagon (Reply #2)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 11:49 AM

4. Do you have a link to that?

The WSJ exit poll says Obama got 48 percent. Exit polls may vary, I guess.

I'd love to see the data.

Regardless of that, it shows that the hype, specifically the Mason Dixon polls were horribly wrong.

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Response to ProSense (Reply #4)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 11:58 AM

6. The numbers are right, but in reverse order.

Obama did very among Cuban voters, but didn't win them. Cuban voters are only about 40% of registered Hispanic voters in Florida.
See article in today's Miami Herald and Tampa Bay Times by Marc Caputo.

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Response to HooptieWagon (Reply #6)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 12:04 PM

8. I'd like to see what you're looking at.

Thanks in advance.

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Response to ProSense (Reply #8)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 12:21 PM

10. You are either misinformed, or misreading the data.

Obama won among Cuban-Americans who voted on election day,, but narrowly lost on the total votes (which includes absentee and early votes).
http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/11/08/3087889/poll-obama-got-big-share-of-cuban.html
Auther is a Miami-based Latino.

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Response to HooptieWagon (Reply #10)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 12:27 PM

12. Where is that information? From the article you linked to:

In Bendixen’s poll, Florida Hispanics broke 61-39 percent in Obama’s favor — a one-point difference from Edison. Edison’s poll indicated Obama may have won the Cuban-American vote, 49-47 percent, but the results were well within the survey’s error margin.


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Response to ProSense (Reply #12)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 12:41 PM

14. Look here:

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/national/poll-obama-got-big-share-of-cuban-american-vote-won-among-other-florida/1260599

"Obama won Cuban-Americans WHO VOTED ON ELECTION DAY" , taking 53% of their vote compared to 47% for Repu lican Mitt Romney, who built up a lead among those who cast absentee and early in-person ballots, according to the survey of 4,866 voters conducted by Bendixon & Amandi International.

Romney NARROWLY CARRIED CUBAN-AMERICANS, 52 to 48 percent, which is a decrease for Republicans when compared to 2008."

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Response to HooptieWagon (Reply #14)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 12:53 PM

15. That's the same article

that appeared in the Miami Herald.

But Bendixen points out that his bottom-line exit-poll numbers mirror the figures from the exit polls conducted by Edison Research for the news media, which found Obama winning the overall Hispanic vote 60 to 39 percent over Romney.

In Bendixen's poll, Florida Hispanics broke 61 to 39 percent in Obama's favor — a one-point difference from Edison. Edison's poll indicated Obama may have won the Cuban-American vote, 49 to 47 percent, but the results were well within the survey's error margin.

Like I said, the article does offer up contradictory numbers, but the Pew data in the OP is separate, and there is no way to way which is accurate.

Based on the data in the OP, Obama won 49 to 47.

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Response to ProSense (Reply #15)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 01:12 PM

17. Why do you cite a republican polling group, when they were proven inaccurate?

What's next? Citing Mason-Dixon's weekend poll that had Romney up by 6 points two days before tuesday? Obviously, the Republican polling groups undersampled African American and Hispanic voters.
BAI did polling for Obama Campaign, and obviously the Obama Campaign's internals were far more accurate than the Romney Campaign's.

Why are you pimping inaccurate republican polls, when the democratic polls were proven correct? Are you simply being stubborn and argumentative?

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Response to HooptieWagon (Reply #17)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 01:20 PM

18. The OP cites Pew:

The state’s growing non-Cuban population—especially growth in the Puerto Rican population in central Florida—contributed to the president’s improved showing among Hispanic voters. This year, according to the Florida exit poll, 34% of Hispanic voters were Cuban while 57% were non-Cuban. Among Cuban voters, the vote was split—49% supported Obama while 47% supported Romney. Among the state’s non-Cuban voters, Obama won 66% versus 34% for Romney.

http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/11/07/latino-voters-in-the-2012-election/

That was the basis of my point.

Why are you up in arms about that? I mean, the article you cite presents two sets of numbers. The OP is based on Pew.

You can't say with certainty that Pew is wrong, and I'm not confused about what Pew states.

You can disagree, but claiming that I'm "pimping" Republican data and the rest simply because you disagree with Pew's data is uncalled for.

There are three sets of data, including Pew, and two indicate the President got 49 percent to Romney's 47.

More accurate data will be released in the coming months. If I'm wrong, I'll acknowledge that.

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Response to HooptieWagon (Reply #10)

Thu Nov 15, 2012, 08:54 AM

25. For the record, that same pollster now says Obama did in fact win the Cuban vote.

"Miami Democratic pollster Bendixen & Amandi International, however, reported Monday its own analysis of the county’s 48 largest Hispanic districts showed Obama won the Cuban vote, 51-49 percent over Romney."

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/11/12/3094299/winner-of-cuban-american-vote.html#storylink=cpy

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Response to Daniel537 (Reply #25)

Thu Nov 15, 2012, 09:12 AM

26. Interesting. Thanks for the update. n/t

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Response to ProSense (Reply #26)

Thu Nov 15, 2012, 09:15 AM

27. Welcome. n/t

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Response to HooptieWagon (Reply #2)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 11:54 AM

5. More information:

Poll: Cuban-American Vote Moving Democratic

MIAMI (CBSMiami) – While Florida still hasn’t finished counting all the ballots from Tuesday’s election, the exit polling from Tuesday’s presidential election is suggesting a major shift in the voting pattern of the Hispanic vote in Florida.

Exit polls of the Cuban-American community in Florida showed a split between Cuba-Americans who were born in Cuba and those born in the United States. Historically, Cuban-American voters have heavily favored the Republican Party since the failed Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Cuban-born voters broke for Mitt Romney by a 55-45 percent margin. However, among Cuban-Americans born in the United States, President Barack Obama carried the group by a 60-40 percent margin.

The Pew Hispanic Center reported Cuban-Americans favored Obama by a 49-47 percent margin. And a Latino Decisions national poll released the day before the election pegged Latino support for Obama at roughly 71 percent.

- more -

http://miami.cbslocal.com/2012/11/09/poll-cuban-american-vote-moving-democratic/



Poll: Obama got big share of Cuban American vote, won among other Hispanics in Florida

The president actually won the Cuban American vote on Election Day, though Romney got the majority of early votes and absentee ballots, according to exit polling.

- more -

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/11/08/3087889/poll-obama-got-big-share-of-cuban.html

It's clear he won the Cuban vote in Florida.

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Response to ProSense (Reply #5)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 12:25 PM

11. Not according to Marc Caputo of Miami Herald.

You are confused. Obama only won most of Cuban-Americans votes ON ELECTION DAY. In total votes, which includes absentee and early votes, he narrowly lost. Thats still a good result, but your headline and conclusion is wrong.
http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/11/08/3087889/poll-obama-got-big-share-of-cuban.html

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Response to HooptieWagon (Reply #11)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 12:34 PM

13. I'm not "confused."

From the article.

But Bendixen pointed out that his bottom-line exit-poll numbers mirror the figures from the exit polls conducted by Edison Research for the news media, including The Miami Herald, which found Obama winning the overall Hispanic vote 60-39 over Romney.

In Bendixen’s poll, Florida Hispanics broke 61-39 percent in Obama’s favor — a one-point difference from Edison. Edison’s poll indicated Obama may have won the Cuban-American vote, 49-47 percent, but the results were well within the survey’s error margin.

Now the article does offer up contradictory numbers, but the Pew data in the OP is separate, and there is no way to way which is accurate.

Based on the data in the OP, Obama won 49 to 47.



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Response to ProSense (Reply #13)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 01:00 PM

16. There are two polls in the article.

You're citing Edison, a republican polling group. The republican polls proved wrong.

Bendixon Amandi International is Democratic leaning. They did polling for Obama, produced Spanish-language ads for him, and did outreach consulting work. Their exit poll cited in the article was conducted independantly of the campaign. Obviously, the Obama Campaign's internal polls were better than Romney's... and tbe Dem pollsters proved more accurate this election than the R's. It appears BAI was the more accurate of the two polls, although Edison's poll was within the moe.

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Response to HooptieWagon (Reply #16)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 01:27 PM

19. Regardless of the data,

the most important take away from all of this is that President Obama won at least 48 percent of the Cuban vote.

That is amazing, and spells trouble for the Republicans.

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Response to ProSense (Reply #19)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 02:15 PM

20. It good news, but no surprise.

There hasn't been a mass exodus of Cubans in 30 years. Their children are coming of voting age, and more likely to vote Dem. Plus, Cuban-Americans no longer a majority of Hispanic Floridians, they are just a plurality (40%). Puerto Ricans #2 at 25%, Venezuelans fastest growing group. Lots of Colombians here, too.

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Response to HooptieWagon (Reply #16)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 11:45 AM

21. I don't see why its so unrealistic to believe Obama won the Cuban vote.

Both polls have Obama at either 48 or 49 percent, so when you factor in the margin of error its just as easy to believe that Obama won the Cuban vote as it is that he barely lost it.

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Response to Daniel537 (Reply #21)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 12:38 PM

22. If you want to believe polls that give Obama the Cuban vote...

then you are believing the same pollsters that had Romney winning Fl by 6 points. Obviously, those polls were in error.
Obama did very well with the Cuban vote, but he came just a little short. In a few years, Dems will have a majority of Cuban vote. BTW, the second largest Hispanic demographic in Fl is Puerto Ricans, and 83% voted for Obama.

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Response to HooptieWagon (Reply #22)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 12:43 PM

23. Mason-Dixon did not do this poll.

What evidence do you have that this polling group, Edison, had Obama losing? They seem to be in line with the Bendixen poll as to the percentage Obama got, either 48 or 49 percent, hardly a huge difference. Anyhow, the major point is definitely that Obama received the highest percentage of the Cuban vote for a Dem in history. And as a Cuban-American, i'm proud to be among that 48 or 49 percent, and i hope this finally leads to normalization with Cuba.

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Response to HooptieWagon (Reply #2)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 12:02 PM

7. The WSJ differentiated Cuban-born voters and American-born Cuban voters -

The Wall Street Journal notes that Cuban-born voters living in Florida voted for Mitt Romney, 55% to 45%.

However, American-born Cubans voted overwhelmingly for President Obama, 60% to 40%.

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Response to pinto (Reply #7)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 12:12 PM

9. Cuban born voters are usually heavily R.

And identify as Cubans. First generation born here more evenly divided, tend to self-identify as Cuban-Americans. Second generation onwards tend to vote as other Hispanic groups, self-identify as Americans.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Sun Nov 11, 2012, 12:54 PM

24. I didn't know Cubans could vote for a U.S. President.

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