HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » General Discussion (Forum) » Did Nate Silver miss a st...

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 06:49 AM

Did Nate Silver miss a state or why is his electoral collage numbers prediction not right?

He had it at 313 to 225 Obama to Romney but the final results were 332 to 206 Obama to Romney.

I have looked at his map and the final election map and I can't find one state that he got wrong unless it is a tiny one that I just can't see.

Does anyone know why his electoral count is off?

11 replies, 1776 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 11 replies Author Time Post
Reply Did Nate Silver miss a state or why is his electoral collage numbers prediction not right? (Original post)
Maraya1969 Nov 2012 OP
geckosfeet Nov 2012 #1
HereSince1628 Nov 2012 #2
Maraya1969 Nov 2012 #11
modem77 Nov 2012 #3
bullimiami Nov 2012 #4
Renew Deal Nov 2012 #5
lalalu Nov 2012 #6
CurtEastPoint Nov 2012 #7
lalalu Nov 2012 #9
doc03 Nov 2012 #8
BeyondGeography Nov 2012 #10

Response to Maraya1969 (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 06:51 AM

1. Floriduh? 29ev?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Maraya1969 (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 06:52 AM

2. OK if it's a joke I'm biting...

how many EVs does still vote counting Florida have?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to HereSince1628 (Reply #2)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 08:06 AM

11. OK I thought Florida had 20 EV. That's the stupid on me. But yeah what everyone else

is saying makes sense too.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Maraya1969 (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 06:57 AM

3. Don't forget his chart was trending upward for Obama the day before the election.

So picking up Florida would probably still make it accurate.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Maraya1969 (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 06:58 AM

4. 313 was an average of all likely. If you look at his chart the highest probablility was at 330+-.

He did get everything right.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Maraya1969 (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 06:58 AM

5. I think 313 was the mean number

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Maraya1969 (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 07:03 AM

6. Don't criticize my man Nate.

 

The other posts are right. Having a sibling who is a math whiz they use variable methods that can give them averages and means we don't bother to calculate. I consider myself decent at math but digging too far gives me a headache.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to lalalu (Reply #6)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 07:14 AM

7. Did you see him on Daily Show? Jon ribbed him about missing the ND Sen. race.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to CurtEastPoint (Reply #7)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 07:17 AM

9. Yes, Stewart was good this week.

 

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Maraya1969 (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 07:17 AM

8. If you remember he would make his predictions to the

tenth of a EV point, it was the average of the likely outcomes in his calculations. You can't divide EV in tenths.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Maraya1969 (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 07:38 AM

10. I like the idea of an electoral collage

Can someone make one for me?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread