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Thu Nov 8, 2012, 11:05 AM

Have any of the pundits explained why

they were insisting the race between Obama and Rmoney was a tight and close race, a horserace, for weeks now - has any of them explained wtf they were talking about when Rachel Maddow herself, just last night, said that Romney got shellacked by Obama and those numbers sure don't look anything like a close race, do they?

I don't watch tv pundits much any more so would appreciate what anyone here has heard from them on this.

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Arrow 32 replies Author Time Post
Reply Have any of the pundits explained why (Original post)
Whisp Nov 2012 OP
Enrique Nov 2012 #1
Whisp Nov 2012 #7
Indydem Nov 2012 #2
seabeyond Nov 2012 #4
FBaggins Nov 2012 #6
seabeyond Nov 2012 #8
Whisp Nov 2012 #14
uponit7771 Nov 2012 #16
FBaggins Nov 2012 #27
Whisp Nov 2012 #28
FBaggins Nov 2012 #29
Whisp Nov 2012 #30
FBaggins Nov 2012 #31
Whisp Nov 2012 #32
ThomThom Nov 2012 #22
RebelOne Nov 2012 #26
Whisp Nov 2012 #5
cthulu2016 Nov 2012 #9
uponit7771 Nov 2012 #17
Bandit Nov 2012 #19
seabeyond Nov 2012 #3
Kablooie Nov 2012 #10
Whisp Nov 2012 #11
uponit7771 Nov 2012 #18
Kablooie Nov 2012 #20
Whisp Nov 2012 #21
BlueStreak Nov 2012 #12
Whisp Nov 2012 #13
BlueStreak Nov 2012 #15
ThomThom Nov 2012 #24
SoonerPride Nov 2012 #23
Whisp Nov 2012 #25

Response to Whisp (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 11:08 AM

1. I have always thought that's what they are supposed to do

their job isn't to predict the result, and when they did, I always remember them being criticized for it.

They reported the polls, and also correctly reported that the polls are not infallible.

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Response to Enrique (Reply #1)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 11:29 AM

7. I'm not sure what their job is, actually.

but I do know they made a lot of people really nervous, and needlessly. There were people here just sick to their stomachs with all this close close horserace shit.

why are they so bad at this?

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Response to Whisp (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 11:11 AM

2. How exactly was it not close?

50.5 % vs 48.1 % is no landslide.

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Response to Indydem (Reply #2)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 11:11 AM

4. 332 to 206 is a landslide. clearly, it was not close. nt

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Response to seabeyond (Reply #4)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 11:26 AM

6. You can win 538-0 and still have it be a close race

if you win every state by less than 1%.

This was a clear victory... it was no 2000.

But it also was no landslide. It isn't unreasonable to think that the president shifted 1% of voters over the final week of the campaign (response to Sandy, etc). Without that we very well might be still wondering today who won.

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Response to FBaggins (Reply #6)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 11:31 AM

8. sounds like you dont get the whole electorate thing. that is how we calculate a win. 538 states

wouldnt even be close to a close race.

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Response to seabeyond (Reply #8)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 12:23 PM

14. this is getting strange

I'm getting a feeling that it is more important to protect pundits that you like that to ask questions about why media people sometimes don't always act in our best interest - even the ones we have adorned with hero crowns.

But I guess that explains it all - why we are even in these very predicaments to begin with.

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Response to seabeyond (Reply #8)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 12:41 PM

16. People don't understand how America's goverment works, they've been taught to hate america's gov

...and therefore there's no need to relate to it

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Response to seabeyond (Reply #8)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 01:32 PM

27. Sorry... it actually sounds like you're the one that's confused.

The Electoral College is how we decide who wins... it doesn't tell us how close the race is.

Nixon beat Humphrey in 1968 by 110 EVs (and another 46 went to a 3rd party), but the gap in votes was barely half a percent. That's a close election regardless of what the EV discrepancy says.

The gap between Kennedy and Nixon in 1960 was 16 hundredths of one percent. Yet Kennedy won the same 303 EVs that president Obama just won. That's the closest election in almost the last century.

But feel free to look at just the EVs... take a look at the last century or so and tell me how far down the list it is. 4th closest? 5th?

You can't rationally call the 3rd/4th tightest popular vote and 4th/5th tightest EV contest since 1916 anything but a close race? It sure as heck isn't a landslide. We've had landslides... lots of 'em. Surely you're not too young to remember?

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Response to FBaggins (Reply #27)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 02:18 PM

28. then please email Rachel Maddow, because she said, out loud, that Romney was SHELLACKED.

what do you think she means?

you think she doesn't know what she's talking about? (I'm beginning to think so too) and I dn't expect a reply.

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Response to Whisp (Reply #28)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 02:25 PM

29. Lol! And I'll say the same thing.

The next step is implementing policy (to avoid the "cliff" for instance). It's useful as a talking point to make the victory look as large as possible. The republicans in the House did the same thing... claiming as much of a mandate as they could.

But let's not pretend that it isn't spin - on both sides.

This was a clear victory. This wasn't Bush/Gore where whoever won lacked a mandate of any significance... but it IS pretty close to Bush/Kerry. No blowout.

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Response to FBaggins (Reply #29)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 02:32 PM

30. okay, so Rachel and MSNBC are leading us astray again by her SHELLACKED comment.

they just can't be the Goldilocks, it seems.

They pick everything is too hot or too cold - there is no medium

I can believe that, sure. why not. That is how they survive - on hand wringing and drama pre election, then gleeful cheering like they 'told you so' all along after the election.

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Response to Whisp (Reply #30)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 04:10 PM

31. Leading us astray? Not at all.

She's just trying to influence public opinion.

And yes, it makes for a better story.

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Response to FBaggins (Reply #31)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 04:16 PM

32. same difference to me.

if she is telling us (the Shellack thing) something that she should Know is not really true (if that's true) then it is misleading.

influencing with something you know is not quite true is indeed misleading.

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Response to FBaggins (Reply #6)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 01:01 PM

22. I agree Frodo

It was close. Millions of people were fooled, lied to and scared into voting for Romney. That is what gets me, how can this be? People really thought Romney could create jobs? That the economic philosophy that just about destroyed the world economy should be brought back. That more bombs and invasions would make us safe. That women should be barefoot and pregnant. People on government programs are just moochers including our injured military people. That health care is only for some and Obama care is bad.

When did thinking in this country stop? I just don't get it.

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Response to seabeyond (Reply #4)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 01:28 PM

26. Where did these figures come from?

Last I heard it was 306 to 203.

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Response to Indydem (Reply #2)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 11:22 AM

5. Rachel used the word 'shellack'

this was last night.

She said Romney got shellacked. She was referring to the EV and yah, Rmoney got his ass whooped, whooped good.
and Florida isn't in the number yet.

sooooo, how can it be that the day before she thought it was so close and now it's apparent that there some major shellacking going on?

hmmm. You think these pundits listen to Fox and friends' opinions more than that of the Obama team and all who knew what was really going on, on the ground?

hmmmm

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Response to Indydem (Reply #2)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 11:51 AM

9. You are right, but good luck making the point

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Response to cthulu2016 (Reply #9)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 12:42 PM

17. If it was popular vote she'd be right, that's NOT how presidential elections work

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Response to Indydem (Reply #2)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 12:50 PM

19. Alomost three million more votes for Obama than Romney

I would not in any way call that close....plus 332 electoral votes which according to GOP pundits is a complete landslide. That is what they said it would be if Romney got 330 electoral votes...

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Response to Whisp (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 11:11 AM

3. another show maddow calling out repugs on believing lies she called out dems, not believing the poll

that had it a romney race and tight.

on the one hand she is all over romney for believing it would be a tight race. on the other hand, she is on the dems asses cause some of us did not believe the polls that it was a tight race.

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Response to Whisp (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 11:54 AM

10. They mean the popular vote. No one pays any attention to the electoral college.

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Response to Kablooie (Reply #10)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 12:01 PM

11. oh, no one? But isn't that the number that counts?

why did Rachel say Romney got shellacked then, if he didn't?

She would of meant the EV vote.

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Response to Whisp (Reply #11)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 12:42 PM

18. To people who understand how the US gov works it's very important

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Response to Whisp (Reply #11)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 12:54 PM

20. Of course, the EC is the only number that counts.

But if it's not close, people may stop watching so they report the popular votes because that creates a nail biter that will bring in viewers.

It's all a media game. Not really informative news.

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Response to Kablooie (Reply #20)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 01:00 PM

21. I know that now.

and probably did all along - I quit CNN because they so thoroughly disgusted me (I knew they were fleabag phoneys for a long time before, but I hung on anyway for whatever slivers of valuable information they did air).

so when I went to MSNBC it was like a fresh green garden of juicy thoughts and nice people. I was so thrilled to have this caliber of people to listen to and learn from.

but it's really the same shit, different pile. How they made that close horserace call disgusts me as much as anything on CNN.

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Response to Whisp (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 12:05 PM

12. Well, actually Dick Morris has

I'll give him credit for not trying to blame it on the storm.

Of course, with Dick Morris, the correct answer would be "because I am a complete dipshit and I never get anything right."

He didn't say that, but he did say that he based his prediction on an assumption that black and Latino turnout would be the same as they were in 2004. Even so, that is only a 2% swing IN THOSE GROUPS, which would be a 1/2 point swing overall, which would not account for the entirely of Morris' prediction.

The only way you can get to Morris' prediction is to start with Rasmussen and then do lots of additional "deskewing" from there.

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Response to BlueStreak (Reply #12)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 12:10 PM

13. and have 'secret' info from Rove for an assured win.

rumours are something 'went wrong' with the Ohio count and now Rove is having a meeting on Thursday where he is being put on a spit.

do I believe that? maybe. We know how they operate.

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Response to Whisp (Reply #13)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 12:36 PM

15. What went wrong is that we put a very bright spotlight on Husted

And he decided he didn't want to go to prison.

He decided to go home about 10:00 on election night. Do you think he would have done that if he thought that Romney was winning Florida, Iowa, and Virginia?

If he thought there would be a Republican in charge of Justice in 2013, I'm betting Husted plays that a lot differently.

Election fraud on a massive scale is real n America. We only dodged a bullet this time. They will try it again the next time. This must be a priority for us. We have to win the Ohio Governor and SoS at the next election. Is that 2014 for those offices?

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Response to BlueStreak (Reply #15)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 01:19 PM

24. We have to win more state races in all states down to dog catcher and school board.

The gerrymandered districts are all that kept the rethugs in the game. We have to change that. Come up with a way of drawing the districts fairly and with some consistency. We need fair unbiased people running our election on a national level. We need a Constitutional Amendment to make voting a right. We need standards that are universal or we do not have a democracy.

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Response to Whisp (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 01:17 PM

23. RATINGS

end of story.

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Response to SoonerPride (Reply #23)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 01:25 PM

25. ratings = more revenue

more ad rev for the bosses = more raises for the pundits that keep those ratings up by tension and 'close race' crap = they use fear just as well as the GOP does in some ways.

I'm disgusted. Can u tell?

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