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Tue Nov 6, 2012, 01:49 PM

History of how 5 election poll aggregate or betting sites moved from Thurs Nov 1 to Today

Lots of the data below - made it easy with some summaries up top. My call, by the way- election will be called 11:15 tonight EST for Obama, with an eventual total of 347 EVs.

Summaries:

Intrade - Thurs Nov 1 9 AM 67.8, today Nov 6 1:30 PM 70. In between range, 64.1-71. Obama 303 EVs, NC red, FL pink
Princeton - Thurs 8:02 AM - - Obama 308 EVs, 98.7% chance to win , today Nov 6 final update 312, 100% - has NC pink, FL too close to call
538 blog - Thurs 12:53 AM - - 300 EVs, 79% chance to win (81.4% Now Cast), today final update 313 (90.9) - has NC pink, FL pale blue
Polltracker (TPM) - Thurs 9 AM - 303 EVs, today final update 290 with VA, NC and FL too close to call
Huffpost - Thurs Nov 1 7 AM - Obama 277 EVs, today final update 277 with CO, NH, VA, NC and FL too close to call

_____________________________________________

Intrade http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474

Thurs Nov 1
9:48 EST - 67.8%
12:20 PM - 68.2%
3 PM - 66.8
5 PM - 65.9 (this seems typical - some Romney money must be coming in)
9 PM 64.9
10 PM 66.7
11:30 PM 67.4

Friday Nov 2
Fri 9:30 AM 68.3
1:20 PM 66
4:45 PM 66.8
10 PM 67.5

Sat Nov 3
9:30 AM 67.5
1 PM 66.8
3:30 PM 66.9
5 PM 67.5
10 PM 66.5

Sun Nov 4
9 AM 64.1
noon 65.5
2:30 PM 64.8
4:45 PM 65.5
6:45 PM 64.9
9:30 PM 64.0

Monday Nov 5
9 AM 66.7
noon 66.2
3 PM 67.1
7 PM 68.5 (was in the low 70s earlier)

Tuesday Nov 6 - THE BIG DAY
8:30 71% (was in the mid 70s earlier)
1 PM 69.5

________________________________________________________________________________

Princeton Election Consortium http://election.princeton.edu/

Thurs Nov 1
8:02 AM - - Obama 308 EVs, 98.7% chance to win
noon 312 EVs, 99.1%
3 PM 316 EVs, 99.1% (Random Drift 96%)
8 PM 315 EVs, 99.0% (Random Drift 96%)
11 PM 315 EVs, 99.0% (Random Drift 96%)

Fri Nov 2
8 AM update 318 EVs, 99.2% (96%)
noon 318, 99.3
4:45 PM 319, 99.5
8 PM 319, 99.6

Sat Nov 3
9:30 am 323 EVs, 99.8%
noon 323, 99.8
3:30 PM 323, 99.8
5 PM 323, 99.8
10 PM 323, 99.8

Sun Nov 4
9 AM 319, 99.9
noon 319, 99.9
4:45 PM 318, 99.8
9:30 PM 303, 99.9

Mon Nov 5
9 AM 305 99.8
10 AM 305 99.8
noon 303, 99.9
7 PM 310 99.9

Tues Nov 6
8:30 AM 312 100% !!!!!!!
1 PM 312 100%
________________________________________________________________________________________

538 blog http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Thurs Nov 1
12:53 AM - - 300 EVs, 79% chance to win (81.4% Now Cast)
9 PM update - 303 EVs, 80.8% (304/83 Nowcast)
11:40 PM update 303.4, 80.9 (303.9, 82.9 Nowcast)

Fri Nov 2
7 PM update 303.3, 81.1; nowcast 302.8, 82.5
8:30 303.7 81.4 (nowcast 304.3 83.7)
11:30 PM 304.8, 82.7 (305, 83.9)

Sat Nov 3
12:45 AM 305.3 83.7%

Sun Nov 4
8 AM 306.9, 85.1 (now cast 307.2, 86.6)
7 PM 306.4 85.5 (307.7, 87.5)

Mon Nov 5
9 AM 307.2 (86.3) (308.4, 88)

Tues Nov 6
8:30 AM 314.6 (91.6%)
1 PM 313 (90.9)

_________________________________________________________________________________

Polltracker (TPM site) http://core.talkingpointsmemo.com/election/scoreboard

Thurs Nov 1
9 AM - 303 EVs
4 PM 285 EVs
10 PM 285

Fri Nov 2
9:30 AM 276
1:30 PM 285
4:45 PM 285
9:30 PM 285

Sat Nov 3
9:30 AM 303 EVs

Sun Nov 4
9 AM 303
noon 303
2:30 PM 303

Mon Nov 5
9 AM 303
noon 281 (CO back to tossup, as well as NC, FL, VA)
3 PM 290

Tues Nov 6
8:30 AM 290
1 PM 290
___________________________________________________________________________________

Huff post http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map?hw
Thurs Nov 1
7 AM - Obama 277 EVs
5 PM Obama 277 EVs
11 PM - 277

Fri Nov 2
9:30 AM - 259
12:30 PM - 259
2 PM 277
4:45 PM 277
5:45 PM 281
9:30 PM 281

Sat No 3
9:30 AM 277 EV
1 PM 277
3:30 PM 281
10 PM 277

Sun Nov 4
9 AM 277
noon 277
2:30 PM 277

Mon Nov 5
9 AM 277
noon 277
3 PM 277

Tues Nov 6
8:30 AM 277
1 PM 277
_________________________________________________________________________________

Everyone Vote! My prediction - Obama victory called at 11:15 PM tonight - will end up with 347 EVs

GOTV!

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Reply History of how 5 election poll aggregate or betting sites moved from Thurs Nov 1 to Today (Original post)
NRaleighLiberal Nov 2012 OP
librechik Nov 2012 #1
Nye Bevan Nov 2012 #2

Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2012, 01:51 PM

1. thx for the great post n/t

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Tue Nov 6, 2012, 11:25 PM

2. Hey- 11:15 was pretty damn close! Props (nt)

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