Mon Nov 5, 2012, 10:21 PM
AaronMayorga (128 posts)
FiveThirtyEight Updated! - Election Eve - Obama Up Big!
Last edited Mon Nov 5, 2012, 11:50 PM - Edit history (1)
November 6th Forecast*:
Electoral Vote: Obama 315.3, Romney 222.7
Chance of Win: Obama 91.4%, Romney 8.6%
Popular Vote: Obama 50.9%, Romney 48.2%
*November 6th Forecast is now aligned with Now Cast.
Ohio: 86.8% Chance of Obama Win
Iowa: 81.2% Chance of Obama Win
Wisconsin: 94.5% Chance of Obama Win
New Hampshire: 80.2% Chance of Obama Win
Nevada: 90.0% Chance of Obama Win
Colorado: 69.7% Chance of Obama Win
Virginia: 72.6% Chance of Obama Win
Florida: 52.3% of Obama Win
North Carolina: 77.2% of Romney Win
Electoral Distribution Probability:
Obama 303: 14% : Obama wins all swing states but Florida and North Carolina.
Obama 332: 17% : Obama wins all swing states but North Carolina.
Obama 347: 11% : Obama wins all swing states.
Chance of Majority:
Massachusetts: 93.6% of Warren Win
Ohio: 96.5% of Brown Win
Missouri: 88.3% of McCaskill Win
Indiana: 67.7% of Donnelly Win
Wisconsin: 77.2% of Baldwin Win
New Mexico: 93.2% of Heinrich Win
Virginia: 85.0% Chance of Kaine Win
West Virginia: 89.7% Chance of Manchin Win
New York: 100% Chance of Gillibrand Win (That's My Girl!)
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FiveThirtyEight Updated! - Election Eve - Obama Up Big! (Original post)
|No Vested Interest||Nov 2012||#6|
Response to AaronMayorga (Original post)
Mon Nov 5, 2012, 11:05 PM
No Vested Interest (3,626 posts)
6. Senate wins!
Remember six-months to a year ago when all the pundits predicted the Dems would lose the Senate because they had so many up for election compared to the few the Repubs had?
So glad to see Brown will win in Ohio, though we knew it all along, because Mandel is insufferable and arrogant to even have attempted, given his poor record as state treasurer.