Nov. 2: For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased - By NATE SILVER

[man4allcats]

"...these arguments are potentially more intellectually coherent than the ones that propose that the race is “too close to call.” It isn’t. If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can’t acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public." Emphasis Mine - m4ac

Read the full article here.

[Tutonic]

1. Not to worry. He's wearing those magic undies.

Sure to change the EVs on November 6th.

[iemitsu]

2. Its about time we abandon the idea that the main stream media has

any intent to acurately inform Americans about anything. They are propaganda outlets that put Tass and Pravda to shame.

[regnaD kciN]

3. I must say I find it disconcerting...

...that Nate would think that there is around a 1-in-6 chance that the aggregate polling has a bias of a couple of points or more in Obama's favor, enough to change the outcome of the election. Really?

[onenote]

4. I think its certainly not something to be completely discounted

I am optimistic, but not prepared to celebrate yet. There are a number of indicators, some more subjective than others, that give me pause. They include the fact that in several states, the repubs have closed the gap in early voting as compared to 2008 (i.e., there are more early votes being cast in repub leaning districts than in 2008 and/or fewer early votes being cast in Democratic leaning areas). But it is impossible to predict with any certainty what this change portends. There also is the utterly subjective evidence in my community, which was overwhelmingly pro-Obama in 2008 (my precinct supported Obama over McCain by a 36 point margin) I am seeing at least as many, if not more yard signs for Romney as for Obama. While I know that the campaign hasn't put as much emphasis on yard signs, it still makes me uneasy.

But I've cast my ballot, urged others to do the same and now must await the outcome, fingers crossed.