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Ellipsis

(9,124 posts) Fri Nov 2, 2012, 07:28 PM Nov 2012

Updated: 12:52am (ET) Nate's 538 11/3 ----- 306.3 to 231.7 - 85.7% now-cast (link)

Last edited Sat Nov 3, 2012, 03:35 AM - Edit history (10)

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Florida going up
Projected vote share ±3.1 49.4 49.9 Romney +0.5

Chance of winning 45% 55%

Colorado
Projected vote share ±3.4 50.1 48.7 Obama +1.4

Chance of winning 68% 32%

Virginia
Projected vote share ±2.8 50.1 49.0 Obama +1.1

Chance of winning 67% 33%

2012 Early Voting Statistics
Last updated: Nov. 2, 2012

Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions: 25,759,169
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

5 replies

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Updated: 12:52am (ET) Nate's 538 11/3 ----- 306.3 to 231.7 - 85.7% now-cast (link) (Original Post) Ellipsis Nov 2012 OP

the now cast is always high...was 95% amborin Nov 2012 #1

I'm seeing 81.1% re-elect odds (forecast), not 79%... regnaD kciN Nov 2012 #2

Duh, my bad... cut and pasted an older poste one and missed it on editing. Now it's changed to 83.7% Ellipsis Nov 2012 #3

. Ellipsis Nov 2012 #4

. Ellipsis Nov 2012 #5

amborin

(16,631 posts)

1. the now cast is always high...was 95%

Reply to Ellipsis (Original post)

Fri Nov 2, 2012, 07:32 PM

Nov 2012

as we get closer to Nov 6, the "nov 6' cast and the 'now' cast will converge

regnaD kciN

(26,044 posts)

2. I'm seeing 81.1% re-elect odds (forecast), not 79%...

Reply to Ellipsis (Original post)

Fri Nov 2, 2012, 08:07 PM

Nov 2012

Oddly enough, in his commentary, Nate still considers it "close," and says that Romney could easily win, if the swing-state polls turn out to be off by a couple of points in Obama's favor.