General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsNate Silver's probability of particular states deciding the election as of 10/31:
Boldface emphasis mine, for things I think bode well for us.Ohio: 49.8%
Virginia: 13.4%
Wisconsin: 8.3%
Nevada: 7.8%
Iowa: 5.4%
Colorado: 5.0%
NH: 3.2%
PA: 3.2%
FL: 2.0%
MI: 0.5%
MN: 0.4%
OR: 0.3%
NC: 0.2%
NM: 0.2%
ME Dist 2: 0.1%
Also, relative likelihood that an individual voter will determine the EC winner:
OH: 11.8%
NV: 10.4%
NH: 6.3%
and a host of others under 5%
Results of repeated simulations:
Electoral College tie (269 electoral votes for each candidate) 0.5%
Recount (one or more decisive states within 0.5 percentage points) 10.6%
Obama wins popular vote 77.4%
Romney wins popular vote 22.6%
Obama wins popular vote but loses electoral college 2.6%
Romney wins popular vote but loses electoral college 4.7%
Obama landslide (double-digit popular vote margin) 0.2%
Romney landslide (double-digit popular vote margin) <0.1%
Map exactly the same as in 2008 0.1%
Map exactly the same as in 2004 <0.1%
Obama loses at least one state he carried in 2008 99.8%
Obama wins at least one state he failed to carry in 2008 3.6%
I like what I see here and wanted to share it. The possibility of the Popular vote/Electoral College vote split is low, and even it is almost 2:1 for Obama when you consider how it would break for each candidate. I was particularly heartened to see FL and NC low on the list as deal breakers for Obama. The returns for those states will be coming in early and I want to keep people from jumping off ledges just in case.
NRaleighLiberal
(59,922 posts)Princeton Election Consortium
A first draft of electoral history
As of October 31, 8:01AM EDT
Obama: 310
Romney: 228
Meta-margin: Obama +2.40%
Probability of Obama re-election:
Random Drift 94%,
Bayesian Prediction 99%
AND....the increasing Intrade number 64.8 right now - resuming its climb
http://election.princeton.edu/electoral-college-map/
reflection
(6,286 posts)What will happen will happen, and these things can at least alleviate the tension somewhat until the night of the election. At some point you just have to let go and let the process play out. I trust Wang and Silver have put a great deal of thought into their models, and their track records are good.
NRaleighLiberal
(59,922 posts)reflection
(6,286 posts)they are refusing to show pro-Obama polls in some of the swing states, as of the last several weeks. Look at the dates on some of their polls and you will see that the Gravis "poll" and Gallup poll are constantly updated, whereas the others are frozen in the amber of post-debate #1 when Obama stumbled.
I used to think RCP was a good aggregator until I read that the founders created it to help promote the existence of what they perceived to be an "anti-conservative, anti-Christian" bias. I use it sparingly these days.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RealClearPolitics
NRaleighLiberal
(59,922 posts)barnabas63
(1,214 posts)It's like the debates never happened. America is coming home to Obama!