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reflection

(6,286 posts)
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 09:16 AM Oct 2012

Nate Silver's probability of particular states deciding the election as of 10/31:

Boldface emphasis mine, for things I think bode well for us.

Ohio: 49.8%
Virginia: 13.4%
Wisconsin: 8.3%
Nevada: 7.8%
Iowa: 5.4%
Colorado: 5.0%
NH: 3.2%
PA: 3.2%
FL: 2.0%
MI: 0.5%
MN: 0.4%
OR: 0.3%
NC: 0.2%
NM: 0.2%
ME Dist 2: 0.1%

Also, relative likelihood that an individual voter will determine the EC winner:
OH: 11.8%
NV: 10.4%
NH: 6.3%
and a host of others under 5%


Results of repeated simulations:

Electoral College tie (269 electoral votes for each candidate) 0.5%
Recount (one or more decisive states within 0.5 percentage points) 10.6%
Obama wins popular vote 77.4%
Romney wins popular vote 22.6%
Obama wins popular vote but loses electoral college 2.6%
Romney wins popular vote but loses electoral college 4.7%

Obama landslide (double-digit popular vote margin) 0.2%
Romney landslide (double-digit popular vote margin) <0.1%
Map exactly the same as in 2008 0.1%
Map exactly the same as in 2004 <0.1%
Obama loses at least one state he carried in 2008 99.8%
Obama wins at least one state he failed to carry in 2008 3.6%


I like what I see here and wanted to share it. The possibility of the Popular vote/Electoral College vote split is low, and even it is almost 2:1 for Obama when you consider how it would break for each candidate. I was particularly heartened to see FL and NC low on the list as deal breakers for Obama. The returns for those states will be coming in early and I want to keep people from jumping off ledges just in case.


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Nate Silver's probability of particular states deciding the election as of 10/31: (Original Post) reflection Oct 2012 OP
Let's add Princeton's increasingly lovely picture to this NRaleighLiberal Oct 2012 #1
Thanks NRaleighLiberal! reflection Oct 2012 #3
thoughts on why the RCP aggregate has been so stubbornly showing a slight RMoney lead? NRaleighLiberal Oct 2012 #4
My understanding is that reflection Oct 2012 #5
thanks - that clears it up (so it is NOT Real clear politics!) NRaleighLiberal Oct 2012 #6
Silver has Obama at 77% now! barnabas63 Oct 2012 #2

NRaleighLiberal

(59,922 posts)
1. Let's add Princeton's increasingly lovely picture to this
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 09:19 AM
Oct 2012

Princeton Election Consortium
A first draft of electoral history

As of October 31, 8:01AM EDT

Obama: 310
Romney: 228
Meta-margin: Obama +2.40%

Probability of Obama re-election:

Random Drift 94%,
Bayesian Prediction 99%



AND....the increasing Intrade number 64.8 right now - resuming its climb

http://election.princeton.edu/electoral-college-map/

reflection

(6,286 posts)
3. Thanks NRaleighLiberal!
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 09:30 AM
Oct 2012

What will happen will happen, and these things can at least alleviate the tension somewhat until the night of the election. At some point you just have to let go and let the process play out. I trust Wang and Silver have put a great deal of thought into their models, and their track records are good.

reflection

(6,286 posts)
5. My understanding is that
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 10:19 AM
Oct 2012

they are refusing to show pro-Obama polls in some of the swing states, as of the last several weeks. Look at the dates on some of their polls and you will see that the Gravis "poll" and Gallup poll are constantly updated, whereas the others are frozen in the amber of post-debate #1 when Obama stumbled.

I used to think RCP was a good aggregator until I read that the founders created it to help promote the existence of what they perceived to be an "anti-conservative, anti-Christian" bias. I use it sparingly these days.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RealClearPolitics

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