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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsPOLLING NEWS: Nate Silver update has Obama at 299 - 238 Romney, 77.4% chance of winning
POLLING NEWS: Nate Silver update has Obama at 299 - 238 Romney, 77.4% chance of winning
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
+10.7 since Oct. 23 Electoral vote
+9.3 since Oct. 23 Chance of Winning
Obama wins popular vote 74.9%
Obama Chance of winning
OHIO 78% Projected vote share +2.4
NV 83%
IA 74%
CO 61%
NH 75%
VA 62%
WI 88%
Expect this trend to continue, with Florida shifting blue by Tuesday!
Place your "official" predictions while you can:
***** Official Pre-Election Electoral College Vote = Predictions Thread *****
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021644060
BumRushDaShow
(126,616 posts)Shuhered
(200 posts)I became so sick of this election cycle just days into it (2 years ago). Mitt is such an exemplary example of a human being harming another human being(s) without conscience. During his campaign, he seemed quite adept at keeping the tenets of his religion at bay while he broke about every common law regarding decency that he could. I hope that he, Ann, Tagg and the rest just fade into oblivion after this. They are the benchmark for Unabated Indifference for all of North America.
obamanut2012
(25,869 posts)And FL?
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)Florida more recently trending Obama. After early voting started the GOTV effort became apparent.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021644060#post15
obamanut2012
(25,869 posts)Even though the map says blue. Fifteen EVs.
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)RomneyLies
(3,333 posts)His model is supersensitive to any movement in Ohio.
doc03
(35,078 posts)Vietnameravet
(1,085 posts)Not only do I want to have Obama as President but I just want to say "Fuck You" to so many right wing racist bigots who have done so much to prevent his election!!
Vietnameravet
(1,085 posts)I clicked on the link you provided and this is not the map that shows..what am I doing wrong?
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)FailureToCommunicate
(13,968 posts)Thanks a lot M$M (yeah, you too Big Ed)
bigbrother05
(5,995 posts)The rebound is solid and growing in each poll cycle
nolabear
(41,902 posts)I've been waiting for this bump.
byeya
(2,842 posts)the pollsters themselves not divulging their response rate?
Silver is a smart guy but unless he factors in the lack of response poll by poll, he's dealing with uncertain numbers. And, if he says he only works with hard facts, how does he know he's dealing with hard facts when it's not public information?
Silver has a good record but the majority don't answer their phones if the caller has a toll free number or blocks its number. Even if a call gets through, many people simply hang up when it's a political poll.
If anyone knows, Silver does, but I am not persuaded he's getting a broad picture of the electorate in any state.
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)Thanks for pointing that out.
flamingdem
(39,300 posts)byeya
(2,842 posts)I would pick landslide.
Archbishop
(41 posts)there is no way Obama wins Indiana. This state is going easily to Romney. There's no momentum for Obama like there was in 2008. I'm just happy Mourdock exposed his true psychopath self and will lose that race.
Also this only matters if we all vote and get our friends and family to vote.
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)Never say never. Without a saddle horn, Mitt could still take a huge fall!