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Coyotl

(15,262 posts)
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 08:01 AM Oct 2012

POLLING NEWS: Nate Silver update has Obama at 299 - 238 Romney, 77.4% chance of winning

POLLING NEWS: Nate Silver update has Obama at 299 - 238 Romney, 77.4% chance of winning
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

+10.7 since Oct. 23 Electoral vote
+9.3 since Oct. 23 Chance of Winning
Obama wins popular vote 74.9%

Obama Chance of winning
OHIO 78% Projected vote share +2.4
NV 83%
IA 74%
CO 61%
NH 75%
VA 62%
WI 88%

Expect this trend to continue, with Florida shifting blue by Tuesday!

Place your "official" predictions while you can:

***** Official Pre-Election Electoral College Vote = Predictions Thread *****
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021644060

22 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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POLLING NEWS: Nate Silver update has Obama at 299 - 238 Romney, 77.4% chance of winning (Original Post) Coyotl Oct 2012 OP
K&R BumRushDaShow Oct 2012 #1
Finally, an accurate Poll :) Shuhered Oct 2012 #2
When/why did he suddenly flip NC blue? obamanut2012 Oct 2012 #3
Oct. 26: State Poll Averages Usually Call Election Right By NATE SILVER Coyotl Oct 2012 #16
He still has NC red obamanut2012 Oct 2012 #21
NC is shifting in the polls, trending positive. Coyotl Oct 2012 #22
Good polls in Ohio RomneyLies Oct 2012 #4
Don't know why such a change but I'll take it. n/t doc03 Oct 2012 #5
K& R Dalai_1 Oct 2012 #6
Yaaaa HOOOOOO!!! Vietnameravet Oct 2012 #7
Question.. Vietnameravet Oct 2012 #8
long way round Coyotl Oct 2012 #13
Incredible to think that only a month ago 538 had Obama at 98% chance of winning! FailureToCommunicate Oct 2012 #9
After the first debate it dropped to low 60s, high 50s bigbrother05 Oct 2012 #10
Nothing could be finer than to see a blue Carolina in the morning!! Hell yes! nolabear Oct 2012 #11
How can we be sure of the accuracy of these polls with only a 10% response rate and byeya Oct 2012 #12
Indeed. Obama may be heading for a HUGH landslide. Coyotl Oct 2012 #14
Visualize Landslide! flamingdem Oct 2012 #15
If I had to pick between landslide and loss based on what I've learned and observed, byeya Oct 2012 #17
That map is what I would like to see, but Archbishop Oct 2012 #18
Six days is a long time in politics, esp. the last six Coyotl Oct 2012 #20
Hope for a Blue Missouri! joanbarnes Oct 2012 #19

Shuhered

(200 posts)
2. Finally, an accurate Poll :)
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 08:25 AM
Oct 2012

I became so sick of this election cycle just days into it (2 years ago). Mitt is such an exemplary example of a human being harming another human being(s) without conscience. During his campaign, he seemed quite adept at keeping the tenets of his religion at bay while he broke about every common law regarding decency that he could. I hope that he, Ann, Tagg and the rest just fade into oblivion after this. They are the benchmark for Unabated Indifference for all of North America.

 

Coyotl

(15,262 posts)
16. Oct. 26: State Poll Averages Usually Call Election Right By NATE SILVER
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 10:42 AM
Oct 2012


Florida more recently trending Obama. After early voting started the GOTV effort became apparent.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021644060#post15
 

Vietnameravet

(1,085 posts)
7. Yaaaa HOOOOOO!!!
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 09:00 AM
Oct 2012

Not only do I want to have Obama as President but I just want to say "Fuck You" to so many right wing racist bigots who have done so much to prevent his election!!

 

Vietnameravet

(1,085 posts)
8. Question..
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 09:06 AM
Oct 2012

I clicked on the link you provided and this is not the map that shows..what am I doing wrong?

FailureToCommunicate

(13,968 posts)
9. Incredible to think that only a month ago 538 had Obama at 98% chance of winning!
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 09:13 AM
Oct 2012

Thanks a lot M$M (yeah, you too Big Ed)

nolabear

(41,902 posts)
11. Nothing could be finer than to see a blue Carolina in the morning!! Hell yes!
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 09:41 AM
Oct 2012

I've been waiting for this bump.

 

byeya

(2,842 posts)
12. How can we be sure of the accuracy of these polls with only a 10% response rate and
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 09:57 AM
Oct 2012

the pollsters themselves not divulging their response rate?

Silver is a smart guy but unless he factors in the lack of response poll by poll, he's dealing with uncertain numbers. And, if he says he only works with hard facts, how does he know he's dealing with hard facts when it's not public information?

Silver has a good record but the majority don't answer their phones if the caller has a toll free number or blocks its number. Even if a call gets through, many people simply hang up when it's a political poll.

If anyone knows, Silver does, but I am not persuaded he's getting a broad picture of the electorate in any state.

 

byeya

(2,842 posts)
17. If I had to pick between landslide and loss based on what I've learned and observed,
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 11:32 AM
Oct 2012

I would pick landslide.

Archbishop

(41 posts)
18. That map is what I would like to see, but
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 11:35 AM
Oct 2012

there is no way Obama wins Indiana. This state is going easily to Romney. There's no momentum for Obama like there was in 2008. I'm just happy Mourdock exposed his true psychopath self and will lose that race.

Also this only matters if we all vote and get our friends and family to vote.

 

Coyotl

(15,262 posts)
20. Six days is a long time in politics, esp. the last six
Wed Oct 31, 2012, 11:39 AM
Oct 2012

Never say never. Without a saddle horn, Mitt could still take a huge fall!

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