The House races, specifically: Any possible way we're going to get a majority there?

[Poll_Blind]

I'm not seeing it, not by a long shot.

From what I'm seeing it looks like we get the Presidency, have 51 seats in the Senate, and maybe pick up a seat in the House. That would give us 194 seats to the GOP's 241, or so.

Does anyone have a tracker -anywhere- which has numbers showing we can possibly get a majority in the House?

PB

[juba]

1. Senate should be better than that

Aggregate polling sites strongly suggest 52-53 at this late stage

[Poll_Blind]

2. Is there a tracker using that data and if so, what's the link?

Thanks!

PB

[sweetloukillbot]

3. In Arizona we've got a good chance to pick up two seats alone.

We're currently 5-3 Republican, and we're gaining a seat next year. There are two safe Dem seats (Pastor and Grijalva) and we should hold Gabby's old seat (Barber). Sinema is looking strong in the new district and Kirkpatrick has a good shot to take back her old seat. That would give us a 5-4 advantage over the Republicans.

[amborin]

4. Nate says 90% prob there will be Dem majority in Senate

no link now, sorry

eta: link: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

9.1%
-3.3 since Oct. 19 90.9%
+3.3 since Oct. 19 Chance of
Majority

[BumRushDaShow]

5. "maybe pick up a seat in the House"

Walsh is a goner in Illinois and because of re-districting, a new district, and a non-incumbent rethug, there's a good chance that Alan Grayson will get a seat back in Florida.

There's an interesting tracker here (you can make up your mind) -

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/election-map-2012/house/

[Poll_Blind]

7. Thanks for that- that's still better than the other ones I pulled up but...

...it definitely looks like even in the best-case scenario we're still in the same House vs Senate/Presidency situation as we've had for the last 4.

Ugh...

PB

[BumRushDaShow]

8. I think aside from redistricting, it may come down to turnout

Alot of the Dem seats that were lost were close wins in 2006 and 2008, and when the electorate went to sleep in 2010, the seats switched back.

I remember the chatter back in 2006 speculating on how many seats the Dems could get and many of the pundits really underestimated the outcome. The padding of the majority in 2008 was also a bit underestimated, and most notably in the Senate.

[Brother Buzz]

6. California may good for three seats, possibly more....

Recent polls of the local races are very scarce, but the money RCCC is dumping on local ads tells me some races are very close. Momentum!

[onenote]

9. We should pick up a few seats in the House, but no one seriously thinks

we have a shot and regaining the majority.

[EC]

10. I'm hoping we pick up Ryan's

seat. It looks doable this time.