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Tue Oct 30, 2012, 09:59 AM

Pollster: Undercounted Cellphone Users Hide Obama's Lead

Are Obama voters underrepresented in presidential polls because they use cellphones?

That's the argument put forward by Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg in a new memo released Monday. Government data shows that an increasing percentage of Americans have ditched their traditional land-line phones and now use only cellphones. A year ago, 32 percent of adults used only a cellphone, according to the Center for Disease Control, which tracks cellphone usage. But more and more Americans are relying solely on their cellphones—Greenberg estimates that that figure is now 37 percent. And government statistics show still larger percentages of hispanics, blacks, and young people—all of whom are more likely to favor Obama, polls show—use cellphones only.

Why does this uptick in cell-only users matter? Because, as Greenberg writes, some polls used to gauge the state of the presidential race don't reach these people—and could therefore be lowballing Obama's standing. (Robocalls are used by many pollsters, but cellphones are blocked from receiving robocalls.) Greenberg went back and analyzed 4,000 of his polling firm's interviews this election season and found that cell-only voters break for Obama in significant numbers. As the following charts show, people who only use a cellphone said they'd vote for Obama by an 11-point margin, and those who mostly use a cell opted for Obama by 9 points. On the other hand, those who said they used a landline and a cellphone backed Romney by 3 points.

Cellphone-only respondents, Greenberg says, are "attitudinally and culturally distinct." They're less conservative, but not necessarily libertarian, either, though they praise both the National Rifle Association and same-sex marriage. They're a crucial piece of the electorate not entirely captured by polls used in the presidential race.



The rest: http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2012/10/polls-cell-phone-obama-voters-undercount

8 replies, 1259 views

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Arrow 8 replies Author Time Post
Reply Pollster: Undercounted Cellphone Users Hide Obama's Lead (Original post)
WilliamPitt Oct 2012 OP
mainer Oct 2012 #1
LisaL Oct 2012 #5
nolabear Oct 2012 #2
regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #4
flamingdem Oct 2012 #6
Ninga Oct 2012 #3
Comrade_McKenzie Oct 2012 #7
politicaljunkie41910 Oct 2012 #8

Response to WilliamPitt (Original post)

Tue Oct 30, 2012, 10:03 AM

1. This chart doesn't make sense to me

It shows that those who use landline only break for Obama +14. If you go by this chart, it appears that landline only is more likely to favor Obama than cell phone only.

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Response to mainer (Reply #1)

Tue Oct 30, 2012, 10:09 AM

5. To me either.

Got to be some mistake with "landline only" bar.

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Response to WilliamPitt (Original post)

Tue Oct 30, 2012, 10:03 AM

2. What we've been saying all along.

I really believe it. Imo cell only people are voters. And there are a bunch of us.

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Response to nolabear (Reply #2)

Tue Oct 30, 2012, 10:06 AM

4. The only odd point...

...is that Gallup recently started polling cellphones more heavily -- and results (RV as well as LV) immediately moved in Romney's direction.



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Response to nolabear (Reply #2)

Tue Oct 30, 2012, 10:11 AM

6. The numbers for black and latino only cellphone users is 65% ish

Though that might also equate to the the differential of those whose vote is suppressed!

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Response to WilliamPitt (Original post)

Tue Oct 30, 2012, 10:06 AM

3. In my circle, almost all are duel, and strong Obama. This goes for those I know

in several other states as well.

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Response to WilliamPitt (Original post)

Tue Oct 30, 2012, 10:12 AM

7. There's also more generations of families living together these days...

 

Sharing one phone line or not necessarily voting in unison.

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Response to WilliamPitt (Original post)

Tue Oct 30, 2012, 10:13 AM

8. We'll know in a week, won't we.

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