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trof

(54,255 posts)
Tue Oct 30, 2012, 09:20 AM Oct 2012

Top handicapper: Barack Obama a strong bet for re-election (not Nate Silver)

Professional oddsmaker Danny Sheridan says President Barack Obama is a strong bet to win re-election to a second term.

Sheridan, of Mobile, said Obama is a 2:1 favorite to defeat Republican challenger Mitt Romney. The odds mean a $1 winning bet would return an additional $2.

Sheridan is best known for his football predictions, but he also dabbles in politics. He said he set the odds after studying polling data and national voter trends.

Sheridan said the odds are subject to change but that he's willing to back up his prediction. He said he'll bet anyone any amount of money that Obama will win, with any of his proceeds going to charity.
http://blog.al.com/live/2012/10/top_handicapper_barack_obama_a.html

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Top handicapper: Barack Obama a strong bet for re-election (not Nate Silver) (Original Post) trof Oct 2012 OP
If Obama is a 2 to 1 favorite, then you would have to bet $2 to get $3 back. Systematic Chaos Oct 2012 #1
So there is no losing bet? ToxMarz Oct 2012 #3
The losing bet is getting it wrong cojoel Oct 2012 #4
The smart money knows the deal n/t flamingdem Oct 2012 #2
There ya go. trof Oct 2012 #5

Systematic Chaos

(8,601 posts)
1. If Obama is a 2 to 1 favorite, then you would have to bet $2 to get $3 back.
Tue Oct 30, 2012, 09:39 AM
Oct 2012

Those betting on Romney would be able to bet $1 to get $3 back.

But whatever.

cojoel

(951 posts)
4. The losing bet is getting it wrong
Tue Oct 30, 2012, 11:03 AM
Oct 2012

Ignoring house vig, if the odds are Obama 2:1, then:

If Obama Wins: $2 bet on Obama will return the original $2 bet, plus $1 winnings, for $3 total.
$2 bet on Romney will lose.

If Romney Wins: $2 bet on Obama will lose
$2 bet on Romney will return the original $2 bet, plus $4 in winnings, for $6 total.

The way a book actually operates is not based on any notion of true odds (often they aren't known) but rather perceived odds among the betting community, with the goal of making the bets aligned so that the pile of money bet is equal to the amount of money to pay out.

The way they make a profit is to take a cut of the total pool, in the form of a betting fee or an adjustment of payouts. An example of the latter might be making the bet on Obama pay out 2:.95 and on Romney 1:1.90. In that case your total winnings on a successful Obaman bet would instead b $2.95, and on a successful Romney bet $5.90.

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