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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsTop handicapper: Barack Obama a strong bet for re-election (not Nate Silver)
Professional oddsmaker Danny Sheridan says President Barack Obama is a strong bet to win re-election to a second term.
Sheridan, of Mobile, said Obama is a 2:1 favorite to defeat Republican challenger Mitt Romney. The odds mean a $1 winning bet would return an additional $2.
Sheridan is best known for his football predictions, but he also dabbles in politics. He said he set the odds after studying polling data and national voter trends.
Sheridan said the odds are subject to change but that he's willing to back up his prediction. He said he'll bet anyone any amount of money that Obama will win, with any of his proceeds going to charity.
http://blog.al.com/live/2012/10/top_handicapper_barack_obama_a.html
Systematic Chaos
(8,601 posts)Those betting on Romney would be able to bet $1 to get $3 back.
But whatever.
ToxMarz
(2,146 posts)cojoel
(951 posts)Ignoring house vig, if the odds are Obama 2:1, then:
If Obama Wins: $2 bet on Obama will return the original $2 bet, plus $1 winnings, for $3 total.
$2 bet on Romney will lose.
If Romney Wins: $2 bet on Obama will lose
$2 bet on Romney will return the original $2 bet, plus $4 in winnings, for $6 total.
The way a book actually operates is not based on any notion of true odds (often they aren't known) but rather perceived odds among the betting community, with the goal of making the bets aligned so that the pile of money bet is equal to the amount of money to pay out.
The way they make a profit is to take a cut of the total pool, in the form of a betting fee or an adjustment of payouts. An example of the latter might be making the bet on Obama pay out 2:.95 and on Romney 1:1.90. In that case your total winnings on a successful Obaman bet would instead b $2.95, and on a successful Romney bet $5.90.