Early Vote Spinning
Michael P Mc Donald
Associate Professor George Mason University
Now with over 3 million people voting across the country, the campaigns are spinning the early vote. Here are my takeaways so far:
Iowa is firming up for Obama. The early vote confirms the polls showing an Obama lead, but by a narrower margin than 2008. Romney still has time to make up ground, but with over 300,000 people voting the clock is certainly ticking.
The early vote indicates that Florida and Ohio are close. We knew that already.
North Carolina started in-person early voting and the early vote numbers shifted dramatically towards registered Democrats. This is expected, as more registered Democrats voted early than Republicans in 2008 and 2004. A point of interest is that North Carolina allows unregistered voters to register and vote all in "one stop." This has the potential of shifting likely voter models since unregistered voters don't make the likely voter screen.
My detailed analysis follows, based on the raw data I report here.
(scroll down in article to see state by state analysis,his NC reporting is much
more in sync with what I have thought to be more accurate than Nat'l Polls)