HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » General Discussion (Forum) » Republicans Desperate to ...

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:43 PM

Republicans Desperate to Spin Romney as the Front-Runner Are Becoming 'Nate Silver Truthers'

What do you do when reality doesn't look good for your team? Republicans just create their own alternate reality.

October 24, 2012

We are looking at a very tight race right now, with a virtual tie in national polling. But we don't elect presidents by popular vote, and Obama has enjoyed a lead in the race to get 270 votes in the Electoral College every single day of this campaign – Romney has never led in any of the Electoral College projections.

But in recent days, the Romney-Ryan campaign has claimed that it's moving ahead. As Jonathan Chait noted, “This is a bluff. Romney is carefully attempting to project an atmosphere of momentum, in the hopes of winning positive media coverage and, thus, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.” Despite zero evidence that Romney has made any gains since receiving a healthy bounce from the first debate, reporters appear to be buying it, with a raft of lazy stories about Mitt Romney's supposed “momentum.”

A significant problem for conservatives bent on spinning this alternate reality is New York Times ' polling guru Nate Silver and his 538 forecast model, which called 49 out of 50 states accurately in 2008 and is considered the industry's gold standard (the model also pretty much nailed the 2010 mid-terms). As I write, Silver's model gives Barack Obama a 68 percent chance of winning reelection, with a projected 288 Electoral College votes.

As one might expect in such circumstances, Silver is now becoming a target of the Right. We've seen 'poll truthers' who think all the big pollsters are intentionally skewing their results in Obama's favor, and 'debate truthers” who insist that moderators are in the tank and the questions are rigged to make Romney look bad. Now we're seeing the emergence of 'Nate Silver truthers,' who attack the numbers-cruncher as if he's a pundit expressing a personal opinion rather than a statistics geek who developed a very robust computer model. And they're using the same tactics they deploy to deny climate change – launching ad hominem attacks on an expert -- calling him corrupt -- rather than offering a criticism of the methodology of his model, a criticism they don't have the technical knowledge to come up with.

The Rest: http://www.alternet.org/election-2012/republicans-desperate-spin-romney-front-runner-are-becoming-nate-silver-truthers?akid=9582.1086515.7ZJyL9&rd=1&src=newsletter732753&t=5

12 replies, 1114 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 12 replies Author Time Post
Reply Republicans Desperate to Spin Romney as the Front-Runner Are Becoming 'Nate Silver Truthers' (Original post)
JaneyVee Oct 2012 OP
NRaleighLiberal Oct 2012 #1
aletier_v Oct 2012 #2
JaneyVee Oct 2012 #5
aletier_v Oct 2012 #7
davidn3600 Oct 2012 #8
WCGreen Oct 2012 #12
DeschutesRiver Oct 2012 #10
pointsoflight Oct 2012 #3
morningfog Oct 2012 #4
LVdem Oct 2012 #6
aaaaaa5a Oct 2012 #9
davidn3600 Oct 2012 #11

Response to JaneyVee (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:46 PM

1. I hope Nate is enjoying every bit of it!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to JaneyVee (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:53 PM

2. It's strange to read on FR that Romney is winning

And then read here that Obama is winning.


It's really kind of creepy, because none of us can be sure, and yet I see such positive beliefs on both sites.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to aletier_v (Reply #2)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 12:04 AM

5. We have officially become 2 separate countries.

On one side you have the sane, rational Left-Wing. On the other side you have the mental patients.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to JaneyVee (Reply #5)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 12:12 AM

7. We can't know that, though, until Nov 6th.

One side is gonna be pretty pissed off, no matter what.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to aletier_v (Reply #2)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 12:18 AM

8. It's like before a football game

Fans of each side think they are going to win and cherry-pick the stats that make them think they will win.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to davidn3600 (Reply #8)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 02:29 AM

12. And then the kick off makes it real....

We have seen the kick off with the first quarter looking good for president Obama, at least by looking at what is happening in the Early Voting...

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to aletier_v (Reply #2)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 02:15 AM

10. Just saw "we are just weeks away from a landslide win"

in an editorial in a local ranching/supply newsletter, which went on to speculate about how hard it was going to be for all the peeps on handouts to give 'em up, etc. This guy had that rock solid absolute certainty that you mention about his beliefs in this regard. I thought he was delusional.

I mean, feel free to think your candidate may win, but honestly - the absolute certainty that there will be not just a win, but a landslide win coming? For Romney? In what alternate universe?

Reading your post suggests that there are many inhabitants in that alternate universe.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to JaneyVee (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:57 PM

3. It's the Romney strategy. The clock is running out and they don't have enough time...

...to get it done the usual way. So what they're doing is trying to sell the idea that they're winning, have the momentum, and are even pulling away. This is intended to keep their supporters motivated while deflating ours.

We can't fall for it. The math that we see on Nate's site is what counts, and there we're in good shape, and if anything, the numbers are trending slightly our way, not theirs.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to JaneyVee (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:59 PM

4. Nate's current numbers are now 70.1% and 290+ EVs.

Last edited Thu Oct 25, 2012, 07:28 AM - Edit history (1)

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to morningfog (Reply #4)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 12:09 AM

6. I think it's 70.1%...

I'd love it if it were 79%, and maybe it will be in a week. We'll see.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to JaneyVee (Original post)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 01:06 AM

9. But they have Dick Morris?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to JaneyVee (Original post)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 02:25 AM

11. Unless the pollsters are wrong

I don't know about you guys but when the consensus of polls is showing an Obama lead in OH of +2 when the poll has a 3 pt margin of error...that's way too close for comfort.

Im cautiously optimistic. But im not comfortable.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread