Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:32 PM
NRaleighLiberal (28,613 posts)
why this picture should make us happy tonight - from Nate's 538 update just now.Last edited Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:32 PM USA/ET - Edit history (1)  ?1
Conventions, debates are now done. MSM has spun what it can. It is now about two weeks of a superior ground game focused on swing states. Look at the line, and extrapolate it out two weeks. I see this as a great status update tonight. And slipping votes/stealing would be pretty obvious with where things should be by election day if the trend holds. 
|
35 replies, 3163 views
 35 replies |
Author | Time | Post |
 why this picture should make us happy tonight - from Nate's 538 update just now. (Original post) |
NRaleighLiberal | Oct 2012 | OP |
| meadowlark5 | Oct 2012 | #1 | |
| naviman | Oct 2012 | #2 | |
| flamingdem | Oct 2012 | #4 | |
| flamingdem | Oct 2012 | #3 | |
| Bigredhunk | Oct 2012 | #34 | |
| Spazito | Oct 2012 | #5 | |
| hrmjustin | Oct 2012 | #6 | |
| applegrove | Oct 2012 | #7 | |
| catbyte | Oct 2012 | #8 | |
| klook | Oct 2012 | #9 | |
| renate | Oct 2012 | #26 | |
| amuse bouche | Oct 2012 | #10 | |
| nolabear | Oct 2012 | #11 | |
| Thekaspervote | Oct 2012 | #12 | |
| NRaleighLiberal | Oct 2012 | #13 | |
| defacto7 | Oct 2012 | #14 | |
| defacto7 | Oct 2012 | #17 | |
| NRaleighLiberal | Oct 2012 | #19 | |
| NRaleighLiberal | Oct 2012 | #18 | |
| aaaaaa5a | Oct 2012 | #29 | |
| Chichiri | Oct 2012 | #15 | |
| NRaleighLiberal | Oct 2012 | #16 | |
| krawhitham | Oct 2012 | #23 | |
| krawhitham | Oct 2012 | #20 | |
| NRaleighLiberal | Oct 2012 | #21 | |
| pointsoflight | Oct 2012 | #22 | |
| Thekaspervote | Oct 2012 | #24 | |
| Turborama | Oct 2012 | #25 | |
| Ellipsis | Oct 2012 | #27 | |
| JB126 | Oct 2012 | #28 | |
| ProudProgressiveNow | Oct 2012 | #30 | |
| Jazzy_Obama | Oct 2012 | #31 | |
| lobodons | Oct 2012 | #32 | |
| Jazzy_Obama | Oct 2012 | #33 | |
| SleeplessinSoCal | Oct 2012 | #35 |
Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:33 PM
3. Nice. It never went much higher did it?
Response to flamingdem (Reply #3)
Thu Oct 25, 2012, 02:05 AM
Bigredhunk (243 posts)
34. I Think It Was 81% or 87% Shortly After The 1st Debate
Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:34 PM
Spazito (26,463 posts)
5. Romney's supposed 'momentum' looks much more like "joementum"
Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:36 PM
applegrove (58,419 posts)
7. .
Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:36 PM
catbyte (3,945 posts)
8. I feel better seeing it trend back up to 75%
 |
Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:38 PM
klook (4,461 posts)
9. Elizabeth Warren's chance of winning = 89% too!
|
Hell yeah!! Long way to go, but I'm feeling better lately.
 |
Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:40 PM
10. Now that's what I love to see
|
Thank you. This made my night. Wheeeeeeeeeeee
 |
Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:43 PM
nolabear (14,710 posts)
11. Yep. Barring something utterly out of the blue we are in wrap-up mode. GOBAMA!
 |
Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #12)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:44 PM
NRaleighLiberal (28,613 posts)
13. Its the now cast, which pretty much shadows the nov 6 forecast in trends.
Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #12)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:46 PM
defacto7 (3,273 posts)
14. I'm also seeing mid September
Response to defacto7 (Reply #17)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:51 PM
NRaleighLiberal (28,613 posts)
19. yes, his numbers were incredible pre-debate 1
Response to defacto7 (Reply #14)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:50 PM
NRaleighLiberal (28,613 posts)
18. the now cast was near 100% after the Dem convention and pre-debates.
Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #12)
Thu Oct 25, 2012, 01:11 AM
aaaaaa5a (3,701 posts)
29. The NOW CAST and Nov. 6th number will eventually converge. nt
Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:48 PM
Chichiri (2,987 posts)
15. That's the now-cast. The forecast is at 71.0%.
|
That's 1.9 points up from yesterday.
 |
Response to Chichiri (Reply #15)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:49 PM
NRaleighLiberal (28,613 posts)
16. Yup - the trends in both are the same - easier to see the trend in this version, hence the pic.
Response to Chichiri (Reply #15)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:53 PM
krawhitham (3,148 posts)
23. 2.9 points from yesterday
Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:51 PM
krawhitham (3,148 posts)
20. That is the NOW cast not the NOV 6th forecast
Response to krawhitham (Reply #20)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:52 PM
NRaleighLiberal (28,613 posts)
21. Yep - it sure is. the forecast and now cast have parallel trends/slopes.
Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:53 PM
22. Exactly where we were in early September, but 6 weeks closer to election day!
Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)
Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:55 PM
24. Thx for pointing out the difference with the now cast
Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)
Thu Oct 25, 2012, 12:45 AM
Turborama (19,368 posts)
25. K&R and thanks for sharing. It looks really cool if you turn it on its side
Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)
Thu Oct 25, 2012, 12:54 AM
Ellipsis (5,560 posts)
27. Awesome
Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)
Thu Oct 25, 2012, 01:11 AM
28. Beautiful!
|
Thanks, I really needed that tonight! FORWARD!!!!
 |
Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)
Thu Oct 25, 2012, 01:13 AM
ProudProgressiveNow (3,239 posts)
30. Quite a bounce! K&R
Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)
Thu Oct 25, 2012, 01:28 AM
32. Who knocked over the candlestick?
Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)
Thu Oct 25, 2012, 01:30 AM
33. This is wonderful
|
But I won't celebrate yet untill I see the presidents victory speech & Romney Conceding! Then I'll pop the champagne cork!
 |
Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)
Thu Oct 25, 2012, 02:17 AM
SleeplessinSoCal (1,639 posts)
35. I especially like the falling red line. Gives me a little more faith in the electorate.
