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Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:32 PM

why this picture should make us happy tonight - from Nate's 538 update just now.

?1

Conventions, debates are now done. MSM has spun what it can. It is now about two weeks of a superior ground game focused on swing states. Look at the line, and extrapolate it out two weeks. I see this as a great status update tonight. And slipping votes/stealing would be pretty obvious with where things should be by election day if the trend holds.

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Reply why this picture should make us happy tonight - from Nate's 538 update just now. (Original post)
NRaleighLiberal Oct 2012 OP
meadowlark5 Oct 2012 #1
naviman Oct 2012 #2
flamingdem Oct 2012 #4
flamingdem Oct 2012 #3
Bigredhunk Oct 2012 #34
Spazito Oct 2012 #5
hrmjustin Oct 2012 #6
LineReply .
applegrove Oct 2012 #7
catbyte Oct 2012 #8
klook Oct 2012 #9
renate Oct 2012 #26
amuse bouche Oct 2012 #10
nolabear Oct 2012 #11
Thekaspervote Oct 2012 #12
NRaleighLiberal Oct 2012 #13
defacto7 Oct 2012 #14
defacto7 Oct 2012 #17
NRaleighLiberal Oct 2012 #19
NRaleighLiberal Oct 2012 #18
aaaaaa5a Oct 2012 #29
Chichiri Oct 2012 #15
NRaleighLiberal Oct 2012 #16
krawhitham Oct 2012 #23
krawhitham Oct 2012 #20
NRaleighLiberal Oct 2012 #21
pointsoflight Oct 2012 #22
Thekaspervote Oct 2012 #24
Turborama Oct 2012 #25
Ellipsis Oct 2012 #27
JB126 Oct 2012 #28
ProudProgressiveNow Oct 2012 #30
Jazzy_Obama Oct 2012 #31
lobodons Oct 2012 #32
Jazzy_Obama Oct 2012 #33
SleeplessinSoCal Oct 2012 #35

Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:33 PM

1. Yay!! I hope it sticks!

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:33 PM

2. Exactly

The momentum is with us!

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Response to naviman (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:34 PM

4. We've got O-mentum! n/t

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:33 PM

3. Nice. It never went much higher did it?

How quickly we forget, I remember 75% a bit fuzzy if it hit 80% one time

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Response to flamingdem (Reply #3)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 02:05 AM

34. I Think It Was 81% or 87% Shortly After The 1st Debate

Before all the post debate spin and liberal hand-wringing, I think Nate had it up to one of those two %'s (81 or 87). Not sure though.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:34 PM

5. Romney's supposed 'momentum' looks much more like "joementum"

That graph looks very promising!

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:35 PM

6. wonderful pic

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:36 PM

7. .

GO BAMA

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:36 PM

8. I feel better seeing it trend back up to 75%

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:38 PM

9. Elizabeth Warren's chance of winning = 89% too!

Hell yeah!! Long way to go, but I'm feeling better lately.

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Response to klook (Reply #9)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 12:52 AM

26. that is so awesome!!!

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:40 PM

10. Now that's what I love to see

Thank you. This made my night. Wheeeeeeeeeeee

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:43 PM

11. Yep. Barring something utterly out of the blue we are in wrap-up mode. GOBAMA!

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:43 PM

12. 74 on 538?

When I look at 538 I'm seeing 71 up from 68. Others posted that earlier as well. Great if it is 74

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Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #12)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:44 PM

13. Its the now cast, which pretty much shadows the nov 6 forecast in trends.

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Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #12)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:46 PM

14. I'm also seeing mid September

at 100% Obama and 0% Romney on the above graph. ????

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Response to defacto7 (Reply #14)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:50 PM

17. But yep

that's what the site says! on the president now cast. 74.1% to 25.9%

and 100% Obama in mid September???

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Response to defacto7 (Reply #17)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:51 PM

19. yes, his numbers were incredible pre-debate 1

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Response to defacto7 (Reply #14)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:50 PM

18. the now cast was near 100% after the Dem convention and pre-debates.

shows how much the first debate tanked the win probability for quite some time. coming back at last.

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Response to Thekaspervote (Reply #12)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 01:11 AM

29. The NOW CAST and Nov. 6th number will eventually converge. nt

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:48 PM

15. That's the now-cast. The forecast is at 71.0%.

That's 1.9 points up from yesterday.

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Response to Chichiri (Reply #15)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:49 PM

16. Yup - the trends in both are the same - easier to see the trend in this version, hence the pic.

feeling pretty fine tonight!

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Response to Chichiri (Reply #15)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:53 PM

23. 2.9 points from yesterday

68.1 to 71

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:51 PM

20. That is the NOW cast not the NOV 6th forecast

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Response to krawhitham (Reply #20)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:52 PM

21. Yep - it sure is. the forecast and now cast have parallel trends/slopes.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:53 PM

22. Exactly where we were in early September, but 6 weeks closer to election day!

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:55 PM

24. Thx for pointing out the difference with the now cast

I'll take it sleep well

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 12:45 AM

25. K&R and thanks for sharing. It looks really cool if you turn it on its side

It kind of looks like an alien with antennae sticking out of its head. Hoping those antennae get reeeeally looong!

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 12:54 AM

27. Awesome

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 01:11 AM

28. Beautiful!

Thanks, I really needed that tonight! FORWARD!!!!

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 01:13 AM

30. Quite a bounce! K&R

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 01:28 AM

32. Who knocked over the candlestick?

damn, this makes me able to sleep better tonight. But still, that does look like a candlestick that has been knocked over.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 01:30 AM

33. This is wonderful

But I won't celebrate yet untill I see the presidents victory speech & Romney Conceding! Then I'll pop the champagne cork!

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Original post)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 02:17 AM

35. I especially like the falling red line. Gives me a little more faith in the electorate.

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