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Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:47 PM

Gallup's Own Polling Numbers Indicate an Obama Landslide, Not a Romney Lead

I remember every political pundit I listened to just 2 or 3 months ago, telling me that all we had to do was watch the President's approval numbers. If he was 50% or above, he couldn't be beaten.

Occasionally, as in 2004, the incumbent could be just slightly under 50% and still win (Bush at 49.7%).

Gallup's explanation in Jan. 2012
http://www.gallup.com/poll/152051/Obama-Faces-Challenging-Election-Climate.aspx

Today (10/24), Gallup has Romney with a 3 point lead nationwide with Likely Voters. Even accounting for the fact that Obama's approval numbers are with Registered Voters, his 53% to 42% approval-disapproval spread this late in the game is more suggestive of an Obama electoral vote landslide than a 3 point Romney lead.

I follow these numbers very closely. I remember what all the pundits say. These numbers, from the same pollster on the same day interviewing the same people, make no sense at all, even using the pollster's own reasoning.

Link;
http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

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Reply Gallup's Own Polling Numbers Indicate an Obama Landslide, Not a Romney Lead (Original post)
louis c Oct 2012 OP
HubertHeaver Oct 2012 #1
SleeplessinSoCal Oct 2012 #2
KaryninMiami Oct 2012 #3
louis c Oct 2012 #7
Third Doctor Oct 2012 #4
Tutonic Oct 2012 #5
louis c Oct 2012 #14
DCBob Oct 2012 #6
louis c Oct 2012 #8
DCBob Oct 2012 #9
louis c Oct 2012 #10
AverageJoe90 Oct 2012 #12
unc70 Oct 2012 #11
Hamlette Oct 2012 #13
louis c Oct 2012 #15
outsideworld Oct 2012 #16
Jennicut Oct 2012 #17
justiceischeap Oct 2012 #18

Response to louis c (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:50 PM

1. Gallup's polling is very confusing to Gallup.

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Response to HubertHeaver (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:53 PM

2. This is why God gave us Nate Silver

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Response to SleeplessinSoCal (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:56 PM

3. Yes- I refer to Nate Silver as my Xanax

When I'm heading towards the ledge, Nate talks me down. Almost every time although there have been moments when even Nate has had me a bit jittery. Hopefully those days are over for this campaign...

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Response to HubertHeaver (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:58 PM

7. It certainly is confusing to me

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Response to louis c (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:57 PM

4. I stopped trying to figure Gallup out years ago.

I just know now not to trust everything they release.

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Response to louis c (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:57 PM

5. Watch Gallup and Rasmussen over the next ten days.

They'll start to correct their numbers so that on November 7th, they can boast to their FOX and Friends that they called it right all along. Also look for them to start selling snake oil around November 8th.

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Response to Tutonic (Reply #5)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 01:39 AM

14. Rasmussen has topped Gallup

Rasmussen is now Romney +4 and Gallup is Romney +3.

Yet Rasmussen still has Obama up in its own EV count.

Go Figure

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Response to louis c (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:58 PM

6. There is serious disconnect in those numbers.

With Obama having that high an approval I dont see how on earth Romney still leads. It hard to believe such a large chunk of respondents would say they approve the Presidents performance but wont vote for him. I think Gallup's methodoligy is flawed.

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Response to DCBob (Reply #6)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:11 PM

8. That's why I posted this

Why isn't this being talked about on any cable shows?

It is an interesting contradiction and it would be interesting to hear an explanation from Gallup.

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Response to louis c (Reply #8)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:14 PM

9. Agreed. Gallup should attempt to explain it..

because to most normal thinking people that makes zero sense.

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Response to DCBob (Reply #9)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:44 PM

10. Thanks for the response

Last edited Thu Oct 25, 2012, 02:00 AM - Edit history (1)

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Response to DCBob (Reply #6)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 12:26 AM

12. Me neither.

IMHO, I've long suspected it's just to keep ad revenue going. Without a horse race....well, it's pretty obvious.

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Response to louis c (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:07 PM

11. Gallup had extreme outlier polling couple days last week

That was when they went suddenly from Obama +2 RV to Romney +2 RV, that on a 7 day rolling average. This means they had some incredibly unlikely polling outlier sample happening twice and on succesvide days, or as I suspect they somehow really screwed things up somehow.

Those strange polling samples are now aging out of the 7-day average and Obama surged to +1 RV. The gap for LV has now closed from -7 to -3, but should close another 2-3 assuming the 3-day job approval increase holds or advances.

We have been discussing this on DU ever since Gallup went weirder than usual, about 5 days ago. If this plays out as we believe likely over the next few days, I expect the MSM will be all over the place trying to explain Obama's "unexplained" surge.

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Response to unc70 (Reply #11)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 12:42 AM

13. agreed, if Gallup is down to a three point spread, the last 2-3 days of polling must be good for us.

I wonder if they just had a terribly off couple of days.

Nate (he's my xanax too although the last couple of weeks I've been taking the real stuff too...whole 'nother story) said recently that Gallup is always off 2-3 weeks out from an election then come to the "real" numbers later.

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Response to Hamlette (Reply #13)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 06:22 AM

15. Today (10/25), will be an interesting watch of Gallup

The trend line is important here.

If Obama shows an even 1 point move and cuts to 2, that will be significant.

I've seen polling data that shows that the national numbers are being run up by huge Romney pluralities in the deep South, none of which are swing states.

As these national numbers move toward Obama, those voters are generally in the swing states that control the Electoral College.

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Response to louis c (Original post)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 06:55 AM

16. How

On earth was bush at 49?

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Response to louis c (Original post)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 07:19 AM

17. Approval is all adults.

I don't know why they don't do approval for LV's or RV's.
Gallup is confusing in general.

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Response to louis c (Original post)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 07:25 AM

18. I'm convinced for the most part that all these polls are BS

I'm also convinced that people lie to on-phone pollsters. If I recall, exit polls and polls in general had Kerry trending toward a win... it was close but he was trending that way and he lost.

I'm not saying President Obama is going to lose, far from it, I think he's going to win. I've stated repeatedly, he has the hispanic vote, women's vote, millennial vote, african-american vote... I'm pretty sure minorities, women and the youngins combined with Democratic/Independent/Moderate males puts President Obama over the top no matter what the numbers show. And as the OP said, if his approval rating stays above 50% over the next 11 days, all these +Romney's will be for naught and show how bogus the polls really are.

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