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Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:30 PM

Romney's 269 Electoral Vote Strategy Will Begin This Weekend.

The Romney group will reveal their hand this weekend as they move to the last days of the election with their best shot at winning the White House. They are going for a 269 electoral victory. And with fury. It's already happening.

It is important for Democrats to understand this:

President Obama needs 270 electoral votes to win, but Mitt Romney only needs 269.

If there's a 269/269 electoral tie on election night, the GOP dominated House of Representatives gets to choose the next President of the United States.

And the 269 scenario is the easiest road to the White House for Romney. And it is the road they are going to take. You heard it here first.

This weekend at the earliest, or Monday by the latest, we will see Romney's advertising dollars and manpower shift big-time for the 269 template.

1.) Romney's campaign will without fanfare (and certainly without tipping their hat as much as possible) quietly pull out of Ohio, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Michigan and put it all down on the following:

a.) holding their current leads in Florida, Virginia and North Carolina
b.) pumping the rest into Iowa, Nevada and Colorado

2.) Doing the above let's them focus on the 269 they need to toss it to the House for their victory.

Of course, Romney's campaign will head-fake by keeping some advertising going in the other battleground states and leave a showing of a ground game there, but:

1.) Romney cannot win Ohio, Wisconsin, New Hampshire or Michigan. Obama will win them. Those states are beyond his control and they are not going to waste money and time the last week there except to keep Obama's campaign guessing.

2.) I ask you: Where did Romney run to after the last debates? Nevada and Colorado.

3.) I ask you: Where is Romney today? Iowa.

It's the 269 electoral strategy and Romney's easiest and best chance left to win.

Be aware. It's already begun.

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Reply Romney's 269 Electoral Vote Strategy Will Begin This Weekend. (Original post)
David Zephyr Oct 2012 OP
aaaaaa5a Oct 2012 #1
Agnosticsherbet Oct 2012 #8
jmowreader Oct 2012 #80
brooklynite Oct 2012 #96
jmowreader Oct 2012 #98
Agnosticsherbet Oct 2012 #100
Drahthaardogs Oct 2012 #31
nsd Oct 2012 #55
BainsBane Oct 2012 #86
unc70 Oct 2012 #2
David Zephyr Oct 2012 #7
unc70 Oct 2012 #16
David Zephyr Oct 2012 #25
unc70 Oct 2012 #66
WI_DEM Oct 2012 #3
David Zephyr Oct 2012 #42
Berlum Oct 2012 #85
Pirate Smile Oct 2012 #4
David Zephyr Oct 2012 #9
Floyd_Gondolli Oct 2012 #20
David Zephyr Oct 2012 #35
Floyd_Gondolli Oct 2012 #54
scheming daemons Oct 2012 #36
David Zephyr Oct 2012 #43
SWTORFanatic Oct 2012 #49
aaaaaa5a Oct 2012 #10
Pirate Smile Oct 2012 #21
ProudProgressiveNow Oct 2012 #77
SingleSeatBiggerMeat Oct 2012 #5
David Zephyr Oct 2012 #12
graham4anything Oct 2012 #6
David Zephyr Oct 2012 #17
graham4anything Oct 2012 #62
0rganism Oct 2012 #74
dsc Oct 2012 #11
David Zephyr Oct 2012 #37
dsc Oct 2012 #44
David Zephyr Oct 2012 #75
BainsBane Oct 2012 #87
David Zephyr Oct 2012 #90
RomneyLies Oct 2012 #13
DCBob Oct 2012 #14
morningfog Oct 2012 #19
morningfog Oct 2012 #15
David Zephyr Oct 2012 #22
ncav53 Oct 2012 #18
David Zephyr Oct 2012 #41
SoCalDem Oct 2012 #23
krawhitham Oct 2012 #28
SoCalDem Oct 2012 #30
David Zephyr Oct 2012 #34
SoCalDem Oct 2012 #56
David Zephyr Oct 2012 #69
ItsTheMediaStupid Oct 2012 #64
nsd Oct 2012 #61
cthulu2016 Oct 2012 #72
cthulu2016 Oct 2012 #83
JaneyVee Oct 2012 #24
SingleSeatBiggerMeat Oct 2012 #26
David Zephyr Oct 2012 #38
krawhitham Oct 2012 #27
MineralMan Oct 2012 #29
David Zephyr Oct 2012 #70
MFM008 Oct 2012 #32
David Zephyr Oct 2012 #91
porphyrian Oct 2012 #33
MuhkRahker Oct 2012 #59
Dalai_1 Oct 2012 #39
yellowcanine Oct 2012 #40
oswaldactedalone Oct 2012 #45
RedSpartan Oct 2012 #46
JackRiddler Oct 2012 #47
bigtree Oct 2012 #48
David Zephyr Oct 2012 #92
Takket Oct 2012 #50
Tribetime Oct 2012 #51
H2O Man Oct 2012 #52
Samantha Oct 2012 #63
David Zephyr Oct 2012 #73
a kennedy Oct 2012 #95
ProudToBeBlueInRhody Oct 2012 #53
jimlup Oct 2012 #57
David Zephyr Oct 2012 #76
geek tragedy Oct 2012 #58
cliffordu Oct 2012 #60
David Zephyr Oct 2012 #88
obnoxiousdrunk Oct 2012 #65
unc70 Oct 2012 #67
Texas Lawyer Oct 2012 #68
cthulu2016 Oct 2012 #71
demgrrrll Oct 2012 #78
Warren DeMontague Oct 2012 #84
David Zephyr Oct 2012 #93
mshasta Oct 2012 #79
reflection Oct 2012 #99
jmowreader Oct 2012 #81
Warren DeMontague Oct 2012 #82
David Zephyr Oct 2012 #94
davidn3600 Oct 2012 #89
6000eliot Oct 2012 #97

Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:31 PM

1. Under this scenario



Joe Biden is still the VP for another 4 years.


The House chooses the President.

The Senate chooses the VP.

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Response to aaaaaa5a (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:39 PM

8. The VP has no real power.

So should this extreme long-shot occur, it will be a Republican administration with the VP waiting ot attend state funerals and break a tie in the Senate.

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Response to Agnosticsherbet (Reply #8)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 03:12 AM

80. Forget about issuing tiebreakers

If a bill gets less than 60 votes it dies, and 50 is just as dead as 59.

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Response to jmowreader (Reply #80)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 07:26 AM

96. Senate will change the rules

Dems will hold the Senate, and I've talked to Reid and most D Senate candidates aboutnthis. the momentum is there.

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Response to brooklynite (Reply #96)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 08:55 AM

98. Only if Obama is reelected

The current rule is ruining the country, but if there's a Romney presidency the Democrats won't change it, as the Democrats will save us from Romney's austerity policies.

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Response to jmowreader (Reply #80)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 12:49 PM

100. The tiebreaker vote is a Constitutional thing...

Even if he isn't called, he has that power.

The 60 votes are on Cloture on the Motion to Proceed. if it passes, it is then voted on in the Senate. Once a bill gets to the floor, it still needs to pass by a majority vote. Bills have passed cloture and still failed to pass for various reasons. In the event of a tie, the VP is tiebreaker.

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Response to aaaaaa5a (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:05 PM

31. Why Biden? Why not Obama?

The Senate can pick whoever they want. If you really want to fracture the electorate, pick Obama not Biden.

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Response to Drahthaardogs (Reply #31)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:59 PM

55. The Senate has to pick either Biden or Ryan.

The 12th amendment specifies that it has to choose between the two top vote-getters.

The relevant part of the text: "The person having the greatest number of votes as Vice-President, shall be the Vice-President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed, and if no person have a majority, then from the two highest numbers on the list, the Senate shall choose the Vice-President; a quorum for the purpose shall consist of two-thirds of the whole number of Senators, and a majority of the whole number shall be necessary to a choice. But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States."

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Response to Drahthaardogs (Reply #31)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 03:45 AM

86. No way Obama would agree to be Robme's VP

A Dem VP would be put in an isolated office and allowed to do nothing but break senate ties. Obama would never agree to that. This scenario is EXTREMELY unlikely because of the current polling status of the electoral map. If Obama wins Ohio and NH, he'll also get Nevada. Then it's game over for Mitt.

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:32 PM

2. Don't think so. They have no viable option

Doing what you suggest screws everyone down ticket with no chance of success. In my opinion.

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Response to unc70 (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:38 PM

7. Read the OP. They will leave the "appearance" of a full strategy.

It's Romney's only way to victory, unc70.

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Response to David Zephyr (Reply #7)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:46 PM

16. He has no way. Not this one, not a direct one. No way.

Polls are about to collapse on Romney everywhere. Gallup has aged out its bad polling days, Obama already surging on job approval which should be reflected in further closing the gap or even going Obama +1 LV on Gallup national. Ohio moving to Obama +5. Despite the polls, places like VA and even NC are very much in play for Obama. Things like enthusiasm, low turnout among blacks from gay marriage or whatever, and all the others are just myths that were supported by flawed or fraudulent polling.

Game about over for Romney.

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Response to unc70 (Reply #16)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:52 PM

25. Read the OP.

Romney will walk away from Ohio this weekend leaving on the pretense of a campaign there. He can't win.

Romney's path to 270 is nearly impossible. They know that. They will focus on what they think they can win.

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Response to David Zephyr (Reply #25)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:25 PM

66. Read it, of course. Neither 269 or 270 happens

I don't see your scenario as anything more than an intellectual exercise, sort of like discussing whether George Romney or John McCain were really natural born citizens.

I have been looking broadly at recent polling and in depth at many of them. I already posted my conclusions on DU. The Obama campaign is so far ahead and thorough in their planning in every detail there is no way your proposed scenario is somehow still a viable option. No way.

As I personally see this playing out, the polling is about to surge for Obama at the state and national level. Worse for Romney, while we, the pollsters, and MSM are looking at samples of hundred or a few thousand, Axelrod et al are tracking nearly ever potential voter in the swing states. We assume, they know.

You seem really interested in promoting this scenario. I know this has been circulating among media types, an EV tie possibility gets dragged out every four years, but is there some additional reason you seem so committed to this unlikely scenario?

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:36 PM

3. Not likely. Nevada is looking very good for Obama. To even 'quietly' pull out of Ohio

will bring lots of adverse publicity and be indicative that his campaign is losing momentum and there strategy is that they have momentum. For that matter early voting numbers in Iowa are pretty strongly democratic and it might be difficult for him to pull out victory there.

No Republican has won without Ohio and that is the whole ball game.

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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:32 PM

42. Romney can't win Ohio.

It's gone. David Axelrod and the President sealed that deal long ago. The early voting math is impossible for Romney now.

WI_DEM, my message here is Romney can't get to 270. That's the real message. They will punt for what they can get.

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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #3)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 03:43 AM

85. Nevada? Hmmm, isn't that where Sheldon Adelson lurks amidst the Republican Casinos?

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:37 PM

4. Nevada is already gone for Romney. Remember how Reid couldn't win - but he did, easily.

Demographics & the Reid/OFA machine have already won Nevada. It's gone.

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Response to Pirate Smile (Reply #4)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:41 PM

9. Reid is Mormon. So is Romney.

Harry Reid, who I like (while some here attack him a lot) is Mormon and he wins lots of Republican Mormon votes. And he still barely won his Senate seat.

The casino money is "in" for Romney like never before. I won't argue with you, but ask youself:
Why did Romeny run to Nevada after the debate. Watch next week, he'll be returning there.

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Response to David Zephyr (Reply #9)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:47 PM

20. He might have run there because he's behind

 

Just a thought.

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Response to Floyd_Gondolli (Reply #20)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:19 PM

35. Romney has to run there. He can't win otherwise.

The very best Romney can do now is 269. They know it.

His trip after the debate revealed it all.

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Response to David Zephyr (Reply #35)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:57 PM

54. You seem very invested in this scenario

 

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Response to David Zephyr (Reply #9)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:19 PM

36. he didnt barely win.... Reid won by 6 points

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Response to scheming daemons (Reply #36)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:35 PM

43. I believe President Obama will win Nevada. Colorado, I'm not so sure about.

My message is that Romney can't get to 270. He will not win Ohio and he knows it. The President's campaign nailed have nailed that down. Romney has to have another path to win and it requires Nevada which is why he left the debate and went to Nevada, Colorado and Iowa.

Iowa, I believe is unwinnable for Romney, but he has little other options.

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Response to David Zephyr (Reply #43)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:48 PM

49. If Obama wins OH (very, very likely), WI (almost certain), and IA or NV he gets 271

He could also win OH + CO + IA or NV

Or OH + VA + IA or NV

Or OH + VA + WI or CO

Or OH + WI + CO

and many other paths as well.

How are you getting Rmoney to 269?

206 (in the bag) + FL + CO + VA + NV + IA?

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Response to Pirate Smile (Reply #4)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:43 PM

10. Look at the 2008 and 2010 Senate polling


Obama and Reid WAAAAAAY over performed their number.


The pollsters can't figure out the hispanic vote. I have never worried about Nevada from the start. If the polls have Obama up 3-5, he wins by 8-10 on election day.

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Response to aaaaaa5a (Reply #10)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:49 PM

21. Exactly. Melman, who polled for Reid in 2010, is polling for Obama and says he is up 5-8%

consistently.

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Response to Pirate Smile (Reply #21)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 02:08 AM

77. +1

They are a good source.

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:37 PM

5. It Is Still A Hail Mary Pass....

Because he isn't "up" in Florida or Virginia and is behind in Iowa and Nevada.

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Response to SingleSeatBiggerMeat (Reply #5)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:44 PM

12. Just watch where Romney campaigns starting this weekend, especially next week.

That will tell everyone everything.

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:38 PM

6. the NEW congress, not the current one

 

and if he pulls out of some states, they will lose more house seats

plus there are 2 states where 1 electoral vote might go to Obama

and Gary Johnson looms

if mitt shows he is out of Ohio, johnson is going to be more of a factor

And Goode in Virginia
Most polls are not showing either of them

and Obama is oging to win Florida and Virginia, though he don't have to

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Response to graham4anything (Reply #6)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:46 PM

17. Show me one scenario where the Democrats take back the House.

Not arguing.

Where was Romney after the debate? Nevada, Colorado and Iowa.

269.

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Response to David Zephyr (Reply #17)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:47 PM

62. Mitt needs to win ALL the swing states. While yes in theory, if he don't win Ohio, the

 

the voters won't be there in Nev. and Iowa

let alone Florida or Virginia

and if the Dems win bigger than you think, the house could be ours.

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Response to David Zephyr (Reply #17)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 01:56 AM

74. iirc, Dems need to return a bit more than 1/3 of the seats we lost in 2010 to take the house

it's not incredibly likely, but i think it's more likely than Rmoney winning all of FL, VA, NC, IA, NV, and CO. Especially NV and IA. If Obama grows some coattails, a Democratic house majority could happen...

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:43 PM

11. We are actually in better shape in NV than in Ohio

so I don't think this will work. I am amazed at how well we are doing there.

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Response to dsc (Reply #11)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:24 PM

37. Romney can't win. The early voting in Ohio killed him there.

Romney can't break 270. There's no road for him to do it. The best he can do at this point is the 269 template. That's why he left the debate and headed straight to Nevada, Colorado and now Iowa. It's all he has.

President Obama and his entire team have run a masterful campaign against all odds. They started early where they needed to: the midwest. It worked.

Let's cross our fingers that we have an upset by winning either one or all of Florida, Virginia or North Carolina and we can all breathe because then it will really be over.

Romney's road to the White House is very narrow now. They will platoon their resources where I've described.

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Response to David Zephyr (Reply #37)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:36 PM

44. Are you thinking the Nevada polls are wrong?

I know you live out there, like I lived in Ohio. I don't think Romney can win Ohio either in part because of early voting and in part because of the polls. But in Nevada there isn't even one poll with Romney leading or tied. I just don't see anyway Romney can win out there unless the polls are just plain off.

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Response to dsc (Reply #44)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 02:05 AM

75. I believe President Obama will win Nevada and Iowa.

We agree about Ohio. I'm not very secure about about Colorado, but I can hope, can't I.

My OP was that I believe what I describe is the only path Romney really has left. Someone messaged me that Rachel Maddow mentioned this tonight on her show (not my post, but the 269 template). I wish I could have seen it.

When Romney left the debate and went straight to those three states, it just fits in with the whole desperate picture they now face. The faces of the Romney family after the debate are the saddest forced smiles I've seen in a debate. They know the internal numbers. They are in their end game now.

Axelrod is a genius and the Obama ground game is brilliant. The ads in the midwest months ago paid off. And Ohio started voting eons ago.

Yes, Nevada's polls are all over the place, but the Latino vote is motivated and all this "rape" crap that the GOP keeps spewing out is really turning everyone off except the haters.

I just can't see how Romney can get to 270, dsc. I don't see it. New Hampshire, one of his hopes, has melted away from him, too.

But they are very tricky and his easiest path now is 269 and that would be truly horrible if he succeeded, which I don't think he will as I think Florida and Virginia will fall for Obama. If Virginia goes to Obama, it's all over.

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Response to David Zephyr (Reply #75)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 03:55 AM

87. If Obama wins OH, NV, and IA

He wins the election because he'll also carry WI. No way Obama wins IA and loses WI. That should put him over 270.

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Response to BainsBane (Reply #87)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 05:02 AM

90. I agree and believe Obama will win all three.

Romney's campaign is down to very limited options without Ohio. And Romney won't win it and I think they know it.

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:45 PM

13. Extremely risky. 270 is far safer.

 

The risk is the House and the fact that it is not a straight up or down vote but instead it is a vote by the state delegations.

The wild card is the 112th Congress does not vote but instead the 113th Congress votes.

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:45 PM

14. that may their best option.. but its still a very unlikely one.

Winning Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada and Colorado is about 100 to 1 shot. Aint gonna happen.

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Response to DCBob (Reply #14)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:47 PM

19. Agreed. 270has always been an extremely long shot for mitt. 269 is just a

little less of a long shot.

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:46 PM

15. He won't take IA or NV, but I don't disagree that this may be his strategy.

I have long said he has no viable path to 270. His path to 269 is still very, very tough and very, very narrow.

Iowa has already started early voting, and Obama is doing well. I think Nevada has too. Romney has never led in Nevada or Iowa.

I honestly can't figure out what the hell is wrong with CO that is has narrowed so much there.

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Response to morningfog (Reply #15)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:50 PM

22. It's narrowed in Colorado because he is spending money there and time.

Your first sentence is the key to everything, morningfog: "I have long said he has no viable path to 270." I agree with that.

His path to 269 is easier. The path to 269 are the states I mention and where he is polling best and where he is now spending his time in person.

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:46 PM

18. Romney ain't winning Nevada, period.

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Response to ncav53 (Reply #18)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:30 PM

41. I don't think he will win Nevada. It's his only road. He can't get 270.

That's why he ran to Nevada after the debate.

He's losing and they know it.

It showed in his eyes during the debate. It showed in the eyes of his wife and children.

He has a very limited path to the White House.

President Obama, David Axelrod and all the campaign ran a great campaign against all odds and a ruthless media. They started early in the mid-west and it worked.

The hardest state of the ones I mentioned for Romney to win will be Iowa.

Go Obama!

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:51 PM

23. Obama wins with 271..no Iowa...no Colorado...no Nevada

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Response to SoCalDem (Reply #23)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:58 PM

28. 2 from NE?

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Response to krawhitham (Reply #28)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:02 PM

30. Yep..he got them last time too..

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/02/obamaha-in-case-of-a-269-269-electoral-split/


‘Obamaha’? In Case of a 269-269 Electoral Split
Email 7 Smaller Font Text Larger Text | Print

Nebraska may be a reliably red state, but the Obama campaign has had staff on the ground in Omaha since October, and the campaign has an office opening there planned for March 15, campaign sources say.

Why?

Because Nebraska is one of two states (the other is Maine) that awards electoral votes according to congressional district. And in case of any 269-269 electoral college tie, the campaign is taking no chances.

Scoff if you like — but the campaign did this in 2008, and won Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district. The Obama campaign jokingly referred to the strategy – and the city – as “Obamaha.” No one outside the state really noticed that Nebraska split its electoral votes, given Mr. Obama’s electoral landslide, but what started out as a just-in-case measure actually proved itself as achievable.

But how likely is a 269-269 electoral vote split? Not as unlikely as you might think.

Let’s assume an election where the battleground states are, from west to east, NV, CO, NM, IA, MO, WI, MI, FL, OH, NC, VA, PA and NH. Let’s give all of them to the GOP except for FL, MI, and NC.

269-269.

Or try again — but this time give Obama WI, MI, OH, PA, NH and NM.

269-269.

So “Obamaha” might come in handy.

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Response to SoCalDem (Reply #30)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:16 PM

34. Well, I hope you are right about Nebraska, SoCalDem

But we really need Iowa. That's our best shot to shut this thing down.

I do not believe Romney can get more than 269. It's just not there. And I'm sure they know it, too.

It's too late for Ohio for Romney.

Here's what I firmly believe: Romney cannot get to 270.

We need Iowa or Nevada or Colorado...or Nebraska

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Response to David Zephyr (Reply #34)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:04 PM

56. I think Obama will get Nevada & Iowa

at least I hope so.. but with Ohio's voting shenanigans, who knows.. As long as Karl Rove is on the planet, we can never be sure of much..except for skullduggery & cheating

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Response to SoCalDem (Reply #56)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 01:46 AM

69. I'm confident President Obama will take Ohio.

I liked your map, by the way.

Unfortunately, some here missed (not you) my overarching point: Mitt Romney's window has narrowed down to what I believe is only 269 and that's if he can hold on to Florida, Virginia and North Carolina. I believe Florida will be a blue state again and probably Virginia, too.

Romney's in a vice. It showed on the faces of his family after the debate.

Come on Nebraska!

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Response to David Zephyr (Reply #34)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:11 PM

64. If we continue GOTV, Romnesia won't sniff 260

nT

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Response to SoCalDem (Reply #30)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:18 PM

61. Obama got 1 Nebraska vote in 2008.

He won the Omaha district, which gave him 1 EV. McCain took the other 4 EV.

But in any case, if Obama is doing well enough to win Omaha, he'll certainly win Iowa (and probably several other swing states) too.

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Response to SoCalDem (Reply #30)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 01:53 AM

72. redistricting. This isn't 2008

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Response to SoCalDem (Reply #23)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 03:37 AM

83. 0% chance of a NE district EV this year. 0%. Really.

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:51 PM

24. It's harder to get to 269 than it is to 270. It's a 2% chance of being a tie.

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:52 PM

26. One Other Thought....

While this is one of the better discussions I have gotten into in my short time here, I had one other thought about Nevada.

Could you imagine the mobilization of hispanic and union voters in Clark Couny if they knew Nevada was the only thing between Obama and "Self Deportation?"

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Response to SingleSeatBiggerMeat (Reply #26)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:25 PM

38. That's part of why I posted this.

Iowa, Colorado and Nevada are essential for our GOTV. You said it.

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:57 PM

27. Maybe we should just they and win the house back

Since the incoming house picks

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:58 PM

29. Desperation move.

That's what that is. It won't succeed.

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Response to MineralMan (Reply #29)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 01:48 AM

70. It will be a desperation move. Romney's in a vice now.

President Obama and David Axelrod and his amazing campaign did an amazing job early on in the mid-west.

Romney can not win Ohio. I don't think he will carry Iowa or Nevada either, but it's about all he has left. I also may be naive, but I feel very good about Florida.

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:06 PM

32. big 3

OHIO,NEVADA,IOWA.
Plus holding the Kerry states of 2004.

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Response to MFM008 (Reply #32)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 05:05 AM

91. Yes!

We win.

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:06 PM

33. Won't happen. Romney won't take Iowa. n/t

 

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Response to porphyrian (Reply #33)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:13 PM

59. OR Nevada! N/T

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:29 PM

39. Colorado is a nightmare

The show Rachel had this week sure highlighted the registration
problems and refusal to make it right..I think she said they
only had 11 days to correct all these problems..

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:30 PM

40. So they would be playing for a tie. Losing strategy in any game.

Go for it Mitt. You miss on one of those states, and you will, and you lose.

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:42 PM

45. Romney can get to 270

by winning Maine's 2nd district. Thug PACs are getting ready to sink a half mil of ads to try to win that district. These ads might impact New Hampshire as well.

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:44 PM

46. He's not winning Nevada or Iowa. No f'ing way.

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:44 PM

47. How do you know the results of the House election?

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:46 PM

48. he won't win Nevada

probably will lose in Iowa because he's snubbed them at every turn and the Obama camp has an established ground operation there.

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Response to bigtree (Reply #48)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 05:10 AM

92. I agree. But it's all they have left.

Romney will not win Ohio. And I think they know it because of the early voting and Obama's masterful campaign there. It leaves them a scrambling and they have to focus on the few options they have left and try to fake out the Prez. We have to really be vigilant with Iowa and Nevada. I'm still very optimistic about Florida and Virginia. This "rape" crap for these GOP men will really turn off people.

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:48 PM

50. electoral votes

If you believe this site:

http://www.electionprojection.com/2012elections/president12.php

and you assume romeny wins all the states that he is "weakly" ahead in right now, that leaves him at 257, 12 shy of 269

the states obama is "weakly" ahead in are

Iowa (6)
Nevada (6)
New Hampshire (4)
Ohio (18)
Wisconsin (10)

so to get to 269, or more, romney has to flip:
Ohio by itself
OR
Wisconsin + any other 1 state
OR
Iowa + Nevada

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:51 PM

51. hold current leads in Florida, Virginia, north Carolina...did I miss something

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:52 PM

52. Recommended. Here's why:

I note that some DUers I respect as intelligent people are responding with "not likely" to the OP. I remember that in 2000, the presidential election was decided by the US Supreme Court. That not only was "not likely," but was not legal -- in fact, it required the USSC to make a determination was was A-Okay with widespread voter suppression.

More, the combined dark forces of the rabid religious right, the neoconservative war machine, and the ultra-rich 1% are going all out to "win" this election. People like the Koch brothers do not invest 500 million in elections and willingly let fairness rule.

I do not think that enough people are fully aware of the beast we are confronting.

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Response to H2O Man (Reply #52)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:02 PM

63. I agree with what you say but the 269/269 scenario has been floating around for weeks and

Nate Silver only gives it a .7% chance of happening. So that might be why not too many people are too concerned this will happen. Check here:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/

Under Scenario Analysis:

"Electoral College tie (269 electoral votes for each candidate) 0.7%"

I do wholeheartedly agree with anyone though who says the Romney campaign will in "unorthodox" ways conspire to rig a victory through whatever maneuvers they find necessary.

Sam

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Response to H2O Man (Reply #52)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 01:56 AM

73. Thanks. The OP was about the tight vice Romney is now facing. I don't think he can get more than 269

And I don't think he's going to get those either (some think I'm saying he will, but I'm saying he has to try for that).

Ohio is gone. The early voting is so far in President Obama's favor that the Romney group knows it. Look at the video of Romney's family's faces after the debate. Those were not joyous smiles. They were sad smiles.

Romney will not carry Nevada or Iowa (he might get Colorado), but he has no other choice now but to try to hold on to his fractional lead in Virginia, North Carolina and Florida (I think Obama will carry Florida and Virginia) and shoot for 269.

I feel better now about the election than I have in a long time.

Still, as you say, they are beasts and they will do anything for power. Including taking it to the House of Representatives.

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Response to H2O Man (Reply #52)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 07:15 AM

95. Ok, now I'm just sick.....

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:55 PM

53. Rmoney is not winning Nevada

Book it. He's more likely to get Iowa than Nevada.

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:05 PM

57. Well I'll be glad when they pull the hell out of Michigan

I'm so sick of their ridiculous and false commercials. We'll beat their 269 strategy by winning both Virginia and Ohio...

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Response to jimlup (Reply #57)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 02:07 AM

76. I'm with you.

I actually President Obama will win Florida, too along with Virginia.

Romney's path is very limited now. Even New Hampshire melted away from him.

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:08 PM

58. They are not going to pull out of Ohio. Iowa and NV are small states that

don't require additional resources. Also, Romney has no chance in NV. None.

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:13 PM

60. Although I appreciate the work you've done on this,

I gotta say it's a bogus posit.

I have about as much chance of nailing Halley Berry as that scenario working out.

Elegant stuff, though.

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Response to cliffordu (Reply #60)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 04:31 AM

88. It won't work out. It will show how desperate they are.

Obama's campaign has Romney pinned down to a pathetic last shot at 269. There's no other path and they'll have to put their resources there. The OP is about how Axelrod/Obama and their campaign have limited Romney to just 269. And they won't get that either. But show me any other credible path for Romney now. There isn't one. That's how bad his campaign is at this point. They have to concentrate somewhere and this is the best I can see them. The good news is they won't win Iowa or Nevada. I really think President Obama will win Florida and Virginia. If so, it's all over.

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:19 PM

65. So this is what

NPR was talking about today. It sounded so ridiculous.

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 11:40 PM

67. Rachel talked about it tonight

This type things always pops up a couple weeks before every presidential election. Nothing to see. Move along.

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 12:02 AM

68. Interesting thought, but Romney cannot win Nevada - his odds are better in Ohio and New Hampshire

than his odds in Nevada.

Romney is in Iowa because it not quite out of his reach, and he's in Nevada because (1) he is kissing Sheldon Adelson's ring or ass or both and (2) the GOP wants that Nevada Senate seat almost as it wants to beat the President.

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 01:52 AM

71. An electoral map of the Scenario you Describe

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 02:43 AM

78. Joe Scar seemed very interested in talking about this scenerio this am..

He was shot down by other guests IIRC but he had a great interest in the possibility of 269. He also seemed sad and subdued.

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Response to demgrrrll (Reply #78)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 03:37 AM

84. They must feel like Ohio is slipping away, then.

God, I hope so.

If Mitt loses Ohio, stick a fork in him. I say he's done.

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Response to Warren DeMontague (Reply #84)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 05:14 AM

93. Stick a fork in him.

I am so impressed at how Axelrod and President Obama and the entire campaign went after Ohio so early on. They had great vision. Brilliant.

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 03:09 AM

79. i DONT TRUST YOUR POST

I DON'T TRUST YOUR INTENTIONS HERE AT DU....

whats with 269 scenario for rmoney?....is that what they tell you to start spreading your 269 bullshit here at DU why??? and who are you?



what's in it for you?...

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Response to mshasta (Reply #79)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 09:14 AM

99. You're telling a guy with 11 years at DU and over 22,000 posts

that you don't trust his intentions at DU and asking what his ulterior motive is? I guess that's your right.

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 03:31 AM

81. No way he gets even 269

Obama will take 300-325 votes. The GOP's worry now is keeping the House.

There is a Queen song that goes "I want it all and I want it now." The tea party sang it in this Congress, and it hurt the R's because most Americans, unlike the baggers, believe there's a role for government.

Thanks to the tea party, I see a distinct chance of retaking the House.

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 03:35 AM

82. If he banks on Iowa, he's gonna lose.

I think Iowa stays blue.

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Response to Warren DeMontague (Reply #82)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 05:17 AM

94. Iowa will stay blue.

They are just out of options and have to focus on what they think they can still win. They are toast.

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 04:53 AM

89. You actually think the republican strategy is to make an electoral tie?

Give me a break.

This election is making everyone nuts.

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Response to David Zephyr (Original post)

Thu Oct 25, 2012, 07:45 AM

97. This sounds more like an admission of defeat if it's true.

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