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Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:41 PM

Someone of Stephanie Miller claimed Romney has the edge in EVs on RCP. What's up?

I know he probably has it nationally because of Gallup.

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Reply Someone of Stephanie Miller claimed Romney has the edge in EVs on RCP. What's up? (Original post)
GusFring Oct 2012 OP
Mass Oct 2012 #1
catbyte Oct 2012 #6
demwing Oct 2012 #8
rbrnmw Oct 2012 #2
Kber Oct 2012 #3
cthulu2016 Oct 2012 #4
MjolnirTime Oct 2012 #5
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #7
KamaAina Oct 2012 #9
standingtall Oct 2012 #10

Response to GusFring (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:42 PM

1. Yes, they have because RCP has MI and PA as toss-up states...

MI has O by 5 and PA O by 4.8, but they still say these are toss-up states.

All included O 281, R 257

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

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Response to Mass (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:47 PM

6. No way in hell is Romney taking Michigan

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Response to Mass (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:48 PM

8. RCP wont move a state

into a candidate's bucket till the margin is greater than 5%.

So the CURRENT status, with "tossups" in O=201 / R+206 EV

However, the site offers a "No Toss Ups" option. In that, Obama is ahead 281 to 257

Interestingly, RCP has Virginia perfectly tied, but when you chose the "No Toss Ups" option, it gives the state to Romney :|


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html


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Response to GusFring (Original post)


Response to GusFring (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:43 PM

3. RCP has solid and likely votes at 201 (O) to 206 (R)

When you throw in toss-ups the lead goes back to Obama.

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Response to GusFring (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:44 PM

4. RCP has Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania as toss-ups

So their count is only as a valid as thaose categorizations

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Response to GusFring (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:46 PM

5. Are you concerned??

 

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Response to GusFring (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:48 PM

7. Your Concern Is Duly Noted.Thank You For Your Input./nt

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Response to GusFring (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:49 PM

9. RCP throws in all those new polls that just popped up this cycle

I can pretty much guarantee you that none of them are the least bit left-leaning.

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Response to GusFring (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:50 PM

10. Nothing to worry about


Romney only leads in electoral votes among solid states, and that's just barely. Thrown in the toss ups, and Obama wins.
Also there seems to be a trend over the last few days on RCP to only include polls favorable to Romney in their polling average.

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