Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:41 PM

GusFring (385 posts)

Someone of Stephanie Miller claimed Romney has the edge in EVs on RCP. What's up?

I know he probably has it nationally because of Gallup.

10 replies, 845 views

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10 replies	Author	Time	Post
Someone of Stephanie Miller claimed Romney has the edge in EVs on RCP. What's up? (Original post)	GusFring	Oct 2012	OP
Yes, they have because RCP has MI and PA as toss-up states...	Mass	Oct 2012	#1
No way in hell is Romney taking Michigan	catbyte	Oct 2012	#6
RCP wont move a state	demwing	Oct 2012	#8
This message was self-deleted by its author	rbrnmw	Oct 2012	#2
RCP has solid and likely votes at 201 (O) to 206 (R)	Kber	Oct 2012	#3
RCP has Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania as toss-ups	cthulu2016	Oct 2012	#4
Are you concerned??	MjolnirTime	Oct 2012	#5
Your Concern Is Duly Noted.Thank You For Your Input./nt	DemocratSinceBirth	Oct 2012	#7
RCP throws in all those new polls that just popped up this cycle	KamaAina	Oct 2012	#9
Nothing to worry about	standingtall	Oct 2012	#10

Response to GusFring (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:42 PM

Mass (24,636 posts)

1. Yes, they have because RCP has MI and PA as toss-up states...

Last edited Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:44 PM USA/ET - Edit history (2)

MI has O by 5 and PA O by 4.8, but they still say these are toss-up states.

All included O 281, R 257

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

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Response to Mass (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:47 PM

catbyte (3,945 posts)

6. No way in hell is Romney taking Michigan

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Response to Mass (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:48 PM

demwing (10,985 posts)

8. RCP wont move a state

into a candidate's bucket till the margin is greater than 5%.

So the CURRENT status, with "tossups" in O=201 / R+206 EV

However, the site offers a "No Toss Ups" option. In that, Obama is ahead 281 to 257

Interestingly, RCP has Virginia perfectly tied, but when you chose the "No Toss Ups" option, it gives the state to Romney :|

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

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Response to GusFring (Original post)

rbrnmw This message was self-deleted by its author.

Response to GusFring (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:43 PM

Kber (3,312 posts)

3. RCP has solid and likely votes at 201 (O) to 206 (R)

When you throw in toss-ups the lead goes back to Obama.

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Response to GusFring (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:44 PM

cthulu2016 (7,946 posts)

4. RCP has Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania as toss-ups

Last edited Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:44 PM USA/ET - Edit history (1)

So their count is only as a valid as thaose categorizations

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Response to GusFring (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:46 PM

MjolnirTime (1,326 posts)

5. Are you concerned??

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Response to GusFring (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:48 PM

DemocratSinceBirth (46,047 posts)

7. Your Concern Is Duly Noted.Thank You For Your Input./nt

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Response to GusFring (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:49 PM

KamaAina (45,290 posts)

9. RCP throws in all those new polls that just popped up this cycle

I can pretty much guarantee you that none of them are the least bit left-leaning.

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Response to GusFring (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 12:50 PM

standingtall (318 posts)

10. Nothing to worry about

Romney only leads in electoral votes among solid states, and that's just barely. Thrown in the toss ups, and Obama wins.
Also there seems to be a trend over the last few days on RCP to only include polls favorable to Romney in their polling average.

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