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Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:19 AM

exit polls in states with early voting will be WAY off

In Ohio, how can exit polls be anywhere near accurate, when 25% of the electorate will have voted early and NONE of those people will have been part of any exit polls?

If the composition of the early voters was the same as the election-day voters, then that would be one thing.

But since Obama does well on early voters, the election-day voting may skew GOP and show up in exit polling.

Don't get freaked out if exit polls show Romney ahead in Ohio. They wont include the early voters.

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Reply exit polls in states with early voting will be WAY off (Original post)
scheming daemons Oct 2012 OP
porphyrian Oct 2012 #1
GeorgiaDemGuy Oct 2012 #2
rbrnmw Oct 2012 #3
kerouac2 Oct 2012 #4
OldDem2012 Oct 2012 #5
Maeve Oct 2012 #7
Bandit Oct 2012 #6

Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:21 AM

1. Really, don't get freaked out by any polls between now and the election. Just vote. n/t

 

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:34 AM

2. I read somewhere that they might include them.

Wish I had the link, but forgot where I saw it.
Anyway, SUPPOSEDLY early voting will be somehow tabulated into the election day polling results to give a 'true" picture. Not sure how, though. Maybe a statistician type would know the formula for doing so.

Vote, Phone Bank, Canvass, Get on Social Media!!!!! Lets win this thing, the alternative is too awful to imagine!!!!!

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:36 AM

3. They Count the Early Votes First

In Ohio I know because I asked when I voted at the Board of Elections. So it won't show Romney ahead

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Response to rbrnmw (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:54 AM

4. May not be so good, then...

because people may get home from work and see Obama crushing in polls and blow off voting and then romney's votes will roll in and take him over the top by a few thousand votes...

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Response to kerouac2 (Reply #4)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:56 AM

5. Not this year. Too much at stake. Appreciate your CONCERN, though! nt.

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Response to kerouac2 (Reply #4)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 09:01 AM

7. No, they don't release the full exit polls until the real polls close, for that very reason

They try not to call the election until voting ends in the western states, too, to prevent discouraging voters.

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Response to rbrnmw (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:56 AM

6. counted votes and exit polling are entirely different things

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