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Tue Oct 23, 2012, 07:48 PM

Romney supporter tries to manipulate Intrade

http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2012/10/intrade-manipulation-fail.html

"ntrade Manipulation Fail
by Alex Tabarrok on October 23, 2012 at 12:32 pm in Current Affairs, Data Source, Economics | Permalink
Brad Plumer at the Wonkblog discusses a recent attempt to manipulate Intrade.

On Monday night, after the debate, Barack Obama was leading Romney on Intrade by around 60 percent to 40 percent. But at around 10:00 a.m. on Tuesday morning, Romney surged to 48 percent. Was this evidence that the conventional wisdom was wrong? Had Romney actually won the debate handily? Or, alternatively, was the nosedive in the stock markets putting a dent in Obama’s re-election chances?

Neither. As economist Justin Wolfers pointed out on Twitter, the huge swing toward Romney appears to have been driven by a single trader who spent about $17,800 buying up Romney shares and pushing the Republican candidate’s chances on Intrade up to 48 percent. But the surge only lasted a few minutes before other traders whittled the price back down to what they saw as a more accurate valuation. Romney’s odds of winning are currently back at around 41 percent.

…As Wolfers pointed out, this mysterious trader ended up overpaying by about $1,250 for shares that quickly collapsed in value. Was this just someone who made a bad trade? Or was somebody trying to influence Intrade odds in order to sway perceptions of the race? And if so, was it worth $1,250 to jolt the markets for less than 10 minutes?" ....more

33 replies, 3963 views

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Arrow 33 replies Author Time Post
Reply Romney supporter tries to manipulate Intrade (Original post)
Skidmore Oct 2012 OP
uponit7771 Oct 2012 #1
aletier_v Oct 2012 #6
progressoid Oct 2012 #10
NRaleighLiberal Oct 2012 #2
Dalai_1 Oct 2012 #13
andym Oct 2012 #3
jberryhill Oct 2012 #14
Lucinda Oct 2012 #4
meadowlark5 Oct 2012 #5
Light63 Oct 2012 #7
jberryhill Oct 2012 #12
leveymg Oct 2012 #20
Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #8
CoffeeCat Oct 2012 #9
Kingofalldems Oct 2012 #16
DarthDem Oct 2012 #25
jberryhill Oct 2012 #11
DLnyc Oct 2012 #17
Liberalynn Oct 2012 #15
spooky3 Oct 2012 #18
leveymg Oct 2012 #21
spooky3 Oct 2012 #22
leveymg Oct 2012 #23
jberryhill Oct 2012 #24
leveymg Oct 2012 #31
TalkingDog Oct 2012 #19
ReallyIAmAnOptimist Oct 2012 #26
PatrynXX Oct 2012 #27
Sebass1271 Oct 2012 #28
cherokeeprogressive Oct 2012 #30
cherokeeprogressive Oct 2012 #29
Skidmore Oct 2012 #32
a kennedy Oct 2012 #33

Response to Skidmore (Original post)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 07:50 PM

1. 18000$ buy from one trader

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Response to uponit7771 (Reply #1)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 07:53 PM

6. krauthammer

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Response to uponit7771 (Reply #1)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 08:05 PM

10. Pocket change for his pals.

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Response to Skidmore (Original post)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 07:50 PM

2. thanks for this - I have been very surprised at Intrade today, and suspected something odd going on.

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Response to NRaleighLiberal (Reply #2)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 08:16 PM

13. Same Here

I usually keep Intrade open and finally closed it...certainly
didn't comport with any developments that I have been aware
of..

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Response to Skidmore (Original post)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 07:51 PM

3. Intrade is a small enough market to be easily manipulated

Be careful in using it as a prognosticator.

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Response to andym (Reply #3)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 08:23 PM

14. That's part of the beauty of it, really

Because I think everyone knows that, yes, in the larger scheme of things, someone with real money can manipulate prices.

But, by the same token, that very knowledge is something that Intrade investors factor in to their thinking.

Someone manipulating prices in order to make some kind of propaganda score only stimulates demand for the counter-proposition.

I used to play horses a lot more than I have time for lately, but I think people severely underestimate the intelligence of a mutual gambling markets. There are people who think that playing horses involves predicting the outcomes of races. No, it's not that at all. It is about determining whether horses and horse combinations are being undervalued by the market, while quickly assessing market trends because the smart money comes in big at the very last minute. You make a rational statistical assessment of general likelihood of any of the horses winning, and then just watch the pools. I don't care if a horse is going to win the race or not. But if a horse with a 30% chance of winning is going to post at 99 to 1, that's my horse.

The weird thing is that there is an Iron Law of playing horses. Consistently, the post time favorite is going to win 2/3 of the time.

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Response to Skidmore (Original post)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 07:52 PM

4. DU called it earlier today.

Don't have the link, but this was suspected.

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Response to Skidmore (Original post)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 07:52 PM

5. The way the Romney owners are throwing money around, $17,800 was a drop in the bucket nt

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Response to meadowlark5 (Reply #5)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 07:54 PM

7. Intrade is then invalid!

If anyone can use money to manipulate the numbers, then imho Intrade is not valid in terms of prediction.

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Response to Light63 (Reply #7)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 08:11 PM

12. Then you don't get how markets work

Short term manipulations are just that for a reason - short term.

The bottom line is that I want to see guys like Koch and Adelson dump a wad of cash into Intrade. I would freaking love to see a share price of 40. That would be a better than even money proposition right there, my friend.

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Response to meadowlark5 (Reply #5)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 09:15 PM

20. $18K like one major market 120-second block TV buy. Peanuts. Don't trust Intrade anymore.

Too easy to manipulate, as are the rest of the polls you don't commission yourself.

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Response to Skidmore (Original post)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 07:55 PM

8. This happened around the exact same time four years ago...

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Response to Skidmore (Original post)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 08:02 PM

9. And did you notice the concern trolls

...all over DU--alerting all if us to these alarming developments and expressing such deep, tear-stained concern!

Oh they couldn't have been more CONCERNED!!

...and most had low post counts.

So, this wasn't just a trade. It was a plan. Trade, then spread alarming messages intended to demoralize and upset the Dems.

These fuckwit fuckheads are amateurs. And as a stay-at-home mom from the suburbs, I don't say "fuckwit fuckheads" ever.

I'm sure saying it now! These people will not demoralize us! We will not fall for their garbage!

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Response to CoffeeCat (Reply #9)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 08:27 PM

16. I noticed big time

They will do anything to win.

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Response to CoffeeCat (Reply #9)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 10:46 PM

25. Definitely!


Although it's probably too late for this election, the concern trolls really need a new playbook. They all read from the same script in jackbooted unison (sorry for the Godwin's Law confirmation there), and they're soooooooooo obvious.

These people would be funny if they weren't so pitiful. And filled with hate.

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Response to Skidmore (Original post)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 08:08 PM

11. That's really great


I missed the buy-in at 61, and I hope these kinds of people keep the share price artificially depressed long enough for me to grow the stones to go large.

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Response to jberryhill (Reply #11)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 08:28 PM

17. yes, seems like a very good time to buy

Fun to profit off these jerks, too.

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Response to Skidmore (Original post)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 08:24 PM

15. There are 2 things PuKes are good at

lying and cheating. That's all they know.

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Response to Skidmore (Original post)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 08:49 PM

18. Just goes to show how little Republicans understand about markets. n/t

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Response to spooky3 (Reply #18)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 09:18 PM

21. The other markets are rigged the same way. They do understand. Some of them do it for a living.

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Response to leveymg (Reply #21)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 09:20 PM

22. did you read jberryhill's posts on this thread?

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Response to spooky3 (Reply #22)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 09:27 PM

23. Yes. I love the suggestion of doing a reverse trade. But, alas, no mullah to play with. ;-(

If someone on this board wants to put up some capital, I'll have a hamburger today and gladly pay Tuesday!

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Response to leveymg (Reply #23)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 09:46 PM

24. With or without you, that wealth is getting redistributed

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Response to jberryhill (Reply #24)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 07:56 AM

31. Tell us how it works out.

If you get rich, you'll have to buy DU the first round of drinks!

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Response to Skidmore (Original post)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 09:05 PM

19. PA-THET-IC

Just can't deal with the fact that he is going to lose.

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Response to Skidmore (Original post)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 10:53 PM

26. I don't think the hankie panky is over...

Right now Obama is 54.5%, earlier this afternoon (4:15pm) he was at 56.7%, and as you said yesterday he was at 60% (which was down from before the first debate).

Not that InTrade matters one whit, it just smacks of more than one bad player, otherwise why hasn't it recovered to 60% and even gained past 60%? Especially considering last night's debate?

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Response to Skidmore (Original post)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 10:53 PM

27. Gee wish I had that sort of money on one night.

albeit don't think that'd buy me a night for dinner with Natalie Portman and family but maybe Emma Watson? albeit I'd be thrown out on the streets if I told them my odd hobby. anyone here got a steth? be easier than listening in via ear. don't think I'd be able to get that close


something that isn't sexual in a matter of speaking and gaining ground. and healthy too. and besides I've got a point of reference to blame. The English Patient as the male lead points the the female lead the valley in her neck wants to call it something. it's all his fault. (turning red)

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Response to Skidmore (Original post)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 11:00 PM

28. The question should be is it legal?

Itsnt there some laws against insider trading? Or am I mistaken?

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Response to Sebass1271 (Reply #28)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 11:07 PM

30. Trading in PREDICTONS? Illegal?

It's a fucking poll that you have to pay to play in. NOTHING MORE.

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Response to Skidmore (Original post)

Tue Oct 23, 2012, 11:05 PM

29. Let me get this straight... people are buying shares in PREDICTIONS?

Fuck me runnin'.

There are obviously people on BOTH sides of the aisle with too much time AND too much money on their hands.

I've never heard of such stupid shit. I've seen the references to it here, but I had no idea people actually SPENT MONEY on this kind of idle stupidity.

On top of all that... I see DUers worried about someone buying too many shares one way or the other?

To Intrade speculators: Send your money to ME, dipshits... I'll tell you who's going to win!

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Response to cherokeeprogressive (Reply #29)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:01 AM

32. Personally, I don't understand how Intrade works but I know that there are DUers

who follow it. I was more interested in the degree to which the Republicans are willing to go to cheat this election.

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Response to Skidmore (Original post)

Wed Oct 24, 2012, 08:03 AM

33. Thank you....they are now off my bookmark list....

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