Rachel seems to have drunk from the Repuke Punch

[flamingdem]

This is sad, she is pumping the NBC poll TIED!!1!!! Women jumping ship (well that's Chuck Todd's specialty).

Martin Bashir must not have received the memo or he is the designated Democrat for the day.

Disgusting. I hope she gets with it fast!

[aletier_v]

1. Well, something is wrong.

Nate Silver has Obama up significantly

but Intrade has the opposite.

[krawhitham]

4. He is up 2% since I looked earlier today (intrade)

58% to 60%

[aletier_v]

13. He was at 65% a few days ago, after 2nd debate

There's a trend divergence between Intrade and Silver and I don't understand why it's so large.

[Akoto]

14. I think Intrade gets nervous around the debates.

Probably better to look at where it is towards the end or after.

[progressivebydesign]

18. Intrade is NOT a poll. It's a place where people bet.

And if the MSM has Romney looking closer, you know damn well people will take a chance that Romney wins. The longshot.. ever hear of it?

[aletier_v]

23. Intrade and polls tend to track together.

Likewise with IEM.

Ultimately they are all aggregations of many people drawing conclusions from intersecting sets of the same information.

[Egalitarian Thug]

22. Forget the political prognosticators, if you want the real story follow the money.

Vegas odds:
Barack Obama: -190 - Odds On Favorite
Mitt Romney: +155

This is the popular vote and it still shows a significant lead for President Obama. State-by-state can be found here, but you have to do the electoral math yourself.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

2. I don't think she's gone GOP; remember - she did this in 2008, too.

She is a worry-wart. She kept saying McCain was probably going to win. It got so bad I stopped watching her; I've stopped this time as well.

[flamingdem]

11. Thanks, I don't remember

It must be the environment over there ..

[vaberella]

15. That's true...she does do that. n/t

[renate]

16. that's right! I'd forgotten

I'd be worried if Obama were still at a 85% chance of winning. Rachel is just like me!

[aquart]

28. White Queen Syndrome aka The Power of Negative Thinking.

My personal philosophy.

[Spazito]

24. I agree, I love Rachel, love her show but...

her "talk me down" mantra in 08 drove me crazy, I stopped watching her during that time. I am still hoping she doesn't go there this time, she hasn't so far so am still watching her.

[gleannfia]

34. I remember that, too

[Zalatix]

35. Is Rachel trying to scare people out of complacence?

Remember when McCain started running those post-convention ads saying that Obama's rising star collapsed? McCain's polls were rising and the Democratic voters panicked. That panic turned into a huge flood of donations and GOTV drives. It utterly erased McCain's phony "lead".

So is Rachel trying to scare Dems into fighting harder? I can see her moves being justified if it means more Dem voters steel their resolve to vote or get out the vote.

[Whisp]

38. I used to really like her, until I see what she and all her colleagues are really all about.

Themselves.

Me, Myself and Mine. me me me me.

I think the only people in the public that I still trust are the Obama's - everyone else has their own piece of personal selfish turf they must protect.

Rachel can now kiss my dog's wet ass.

[BeyondGeography]

3. There's one thing she's just bad at: Predictions

Hillary was always going to beat Obama, no matter what the delegate math said...Remember, Talk Me Down? She has an attraction to disaster theories.

[leveymg]

6. You've gotta love her, anyway. eom

[BeyondGeography]

8. I do

[flamingdem]

9. There is some analytical aspect missing from her thinking

When Obama has been ahead in the electoral vote for so long -- what is her justification for pushing the even steven poll as if we're low info voters. How many people desiring a horse race have tuned in to the Foreign Policy debate?

They are watching football ..

[meadowlark5]

5. What is wrong with her lately?

I haven't been able to really even watch her show. And she annoys the shit out of me with these debates. All giddy and giggling in excitement and delight like it's some boxing match or football game. She is an example of what is wrong with these debates. It's like a spectator sport or reality tv. This isn't a game or at least it shouldn't be. But that's what it's being turned into.

[treestar]

7. Nobody should let these pundits bother or influence them

To me the ones supposedly on the left are worse than the ones on the right! The lefty ones give the Rs something to gloat over.

[Jennicut]

10. The NBC poll is the poll all MSNBC pundits are instructed to use.

They all promote their own polls.

[Blue Idaho]

12. M$NBC if full of "fair weather friends."

I'm getting really tired of their TV show rating pumping BS.

[Loge23]

17. Maybe she's trying to fire up the troops?

Whatever. For me, RM is one of the truest, sharpest, and smartest voices we have. I think she's right - this is way too close. We need to get the vote out.
Can we pick on someone from the right?

[flamingdem]

20. We need some consistency here. CNN and FOX are pumping Romney

If MSNBC goes there and Mitt starts and closes well you know what the headlines are going to be.

Rachel just doesn't seem to be the one to push back. She has the credibility, I think she doesn't care that much.

[progressivebydesign]

19. Maddow suffers from the "I need to be right" disease that afflicts too many Dem pundits.

No, Rachel, you don't get a fucking cookie for playing fair and being right.

[win_in_06]

21. What do you expect? She can't discount her own company's poll. n/t

[Aerows]

29. Settle down

You aren't a respected journalist if you don't assay the situation on the ground. She does. Just because you don't like her *initial* assessment, doesn't mean she's wrong.

[Aerows]

25. Rachel Maddow doesn't drink the punch

She's pretty straightforward, and is intelligent as hell.

If she is saying it, she's probably calling it as she sees it right this minute. Remember that things change minute by minute in journalism.

[pacalo]

26. You do have to wonder if the network is putting the pressure on to make it seem more like a close

horse race "to keep (viewers) coming back to watch the ads" (Matt Taibbi -- How the Hype Became Bigger Than the Presidential Election ).

That goes for the polls, too. There is no way Robme could legitimately be even close to Obama's approval rating.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

31. The broadcast media also want the campaigns to buy more ads.

And if they keep claiming there's a tie, presumably both campaigns will be scared into more and bigger ad buys.

[pacalo]

36. Thanks for adding that -- good point.

[Comrade_McKenzie]

27. Because she's a reporter that doesn't have the luxury of the bubble we do? nt

[Motown_Johnny]

30. That is just the popular vote. The battleground states are a different story.

It is all good.

Maybe she thinks it will help get people out to vote early.

[mythology]

32. Or she's reading the polls as they are

Just because she says something you don't want to hear, doesn't mean she's wrong or a cultist or anything of the sort.

[Egalitarian Thug]

33. Give Rachel a break. She's gone from a comfortable, but nowhere near astronomical salary

as a syndicated radio talk show host to a 1% TV phenom raking in the multi-millions. Nobody wants to see that go away, just ask Keith.

That's the problem with the plutocracy, once you're in and experience what life can be like, you get a whole new perspective and suddenly the deprivation and suffering of those millions of people you probably wouldn't like very much and will never meet anyway seems rather distant.

[nadinbrzezinski]

37. You know just because they polls do nto say what you want to hear

does not mean they are automatically GOP punch.

This happens every cycle. As the elections close polls tighten, ESPECIALLY national polls.

People really need to learn how to read polls, poll internals, and realize they are a picture of the moment in time they were taken.

[warrprayer]

39. I love Rachel

and she has done more to further progressive causes than most people on earth