Think our justice system is screwy? Six Italian scientists have just been convicted of manslaughter

[pnwmom]

for failing to predict an earthquake.

After a series of minor tremors, they correctly said that the tremors didn't necessarily mean that any larger earthquake would be forthcoming, that minor tremors were common in that part of Italy -- but then the "big one" occurred sometime later. They've each been sentenced to 6 years in prison and seismologists around the world are in an uproar.

Some of the locals who filed civil suits said they wanted to send "a message that they want more and better information about possible future quakes." (WHO WOULDN'T??? But it's not the fault of these seismologists that the science hasn't developed to that point yet.)

As with Amanda Knox, these scientists have been convicted in the first level of trials in Italy, and two levels of appeals will follow. Statistically, there is approximately a 50% likelihood that this conviction will be overturned in the first appeal, which is what happened with Knox's case. (She's still waiting for the outcome of the second level appeal because the prosecution is disputing the outcome of the first appeal. )

What a nightmare for these poor scientists.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57537288/italian-scientists-convicted-for-not-warning-about-deadly-2009-quake/

Scientists worldwide had decried the trial as ridiculous, contending that science has no reliable way of predicting earthquakes.

"This trial has raised huge concerns within the scientific community because here you have a number of scientists, who are simply doing their job, being prosecuted for criminal manslaughter, and I think that scares all of us who are involved in risk communication," professor Tom Jordan, director of the Southern California Earthquake Center, told CBS News.

Among those convicted were some of Italy's most prominent and internationally respected seismologists and geological experts, including Enzo Boschi, former head of the national Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology.

"I am dejected, desperate," Boschi said after the verdict. "I thought I would have been acquitted. I still don't understand what I was convicted of."

SNIP

[CBGLuthier]

1. There seems to be a lot of incentive to stay out of Italy. Thatsa Shame.

[pnwmom]

2. Or make sure you've got a lawyer with you. n/t

[redwitch]

3. Appalling.

I cannot grasp the logic behind this at all. And who will want to do the job now? I am hoping they can appeal the decision and win, this is a horrible miscarriage of justice!

[pnwmom]

6. The appeal is automatic under their system. What is also crazy to me

is that they're satisfied with a system that results in 50% false convictions at the first level.

[Stargazer09]

4. I can't believe they were convicted

NOBODY in the geology world believes that earthquakes can be predicted with any sort of accuracy, especially not with enough accuracy to prevent deaths in a region with old architecture that isn't built to withstand earthquakes.

If I were a scientist in Italy, I'd walk away and never look back.

[pnwmom]

5. How will they ever get any scientist to sit on that commission again?

Or any commission?

[Stargazer09]

12. I understand that people died

I understand that people want answers, and they want reassurance that this won't happen again. Unfortunately, they also want revenge, and that is what this whole farce is about.

Italy is a very seismically active country near a tectonic plate boundary. There are going to be earthquakes. There are going to be volcanic eruptions. If you live in Italy, you must accept the risks involved with living there. I've visited Italy. It's a beautiful country with a lot of history and culture, so I don't blame the Italians for wanting to stay there.

However, the science of predicting earthquakes is still in its infancy. At this point in time, there is absolutely no way to predict when an earthquake will occur. We can predict that one will happen sometime in the future, but that could mean tomorrow or twenty years from now.

One thing is absolutely certain. No scientist in his or her right mind would want to be on any sort of commission in Italy after this fiasco. Italy has just scared away the very people who could make a difference in the future.

I'm angry that this has happened.

[Ikonoklast]

10. If I were a seismologist, I'd would then tell everyone to evacuate every single time.

I'd predict that they were in mortal fear of their lives, and to leave the area immediately, leave all their belongings, flee as quickly as possible.

I'd cause as massive a relocation and disruption problem for the government and the local population looking for a scapegoat that I possibly could.



Fuck 'em.


After two or three times of that happening, I'd think bullshit like this would stop.

What would they do, put me in jail?

Gonna do that anyway, it seems.

[Stargazer09]

14. No kidding

But I'm sure they'd blame the scientists for the false alarms, too.

Damned if you do. Damned if you don't.

[valerief]

7. Why am I thinking of natural gas fracking here?

If scientists can't predict earthquakes totally accurately, they shouldn't predict at all. In fact, any seismology data is heresy unless blessed by the Pope. Therefore, no seismology data can be tied to fracking.

[pnwmom]

9. They weren't predicting. They were all members of a national commission

and are being held responsible for not warning the public that a major earthquake could be coming.

[RomneyLies]

8. Shades of Galileo.

This is what we are doomed to if the GOP prevails.

[lalalu]

11. Ican't even laugh about this.

Those scientists must be really depressed.

[pnwmom]

15. They're either really depressed or in a state of shock.

I wonder if Italians will ever get fed up with a system that produces so many false convictions?

[mshasta]

13. wow ..just wow!

that's fuck up!...in every way that you can think of....really stupid ass judges...

[Nye Bevan]

16. Well that's really going to encourage bright young Italians to enter into seismology.

Not.

[Politicalboi]

17. Don't give the GOP any ideas

They would love to do this out here.

[Xithras]

18. The case isn't nearly as straightforward as it's being presented in the media.

They were NOT convicted of failing to predict a quake. Here's the nutshell version of what happened, to the best of my recollection:

A medieval stone city sits in an area that has a long history of earthquake swarms. Since the 1300's the residents of the city have had a standard way of responding to them...when the first quake hits, they evacuate some of the more dangerous parts of town, camp outside of their homes, etc. This is perfectly normal to them, and has a long local history. Sometimes this go on for months, and sometimes just days. Instead of living in their dangerous homes, they get our of them until the "danger passes".

In 2009 two small quakes hit, and many of the people in the town quickly began preparations to evacuate or began moving outside of their homes. The government official, along with several seismologists, went to a town hall meeting and on TV to tell the people in the town that there was no need to evacuate or worry, that earthquakes couldn't be predicted, and that they were perfectly safe in their homes. The towns traditional response to the swarms was to get to safety, but the local government and these seismologists told them to stay in their homes. Documents showed that the seismologists were actually aware of the towns history of earthquake swarms, but the overriding concern at a meeting between them and the local government was to pacify the town and "keep things normal".

When the quake struck 7 days later, over 300 people were killed as the old stone buildings collapsed on them. If the townspeople had evacuated or moved outside, a substantial percentage of them may have lived.

[pnwmom]

21. It isn't true that the seismologists told people to stay in their homes.

A politician may have said that, but the seismologists were never accused of that. They were accused of failing to dispute the politician who was trying to calm the residents.

The other fact you've left out is that this area is an extremely active earthquake zone -- and has been, forever. If people left their homes and slept in the street every time there was a swarm of earthquakes, they would never sleep in their homes. The seismologists were CORRECT. There was nothing in the swarms of earthquakes that they'd had in the months before the fatal earthquake to warn them -- or any other seismologists -- that a serious earthquake was coming.

http://www.foxnews.com/science/2012/10/22/italian-court-convicts-7-scientists-for-failing-to-predict-earthquake/

The world's largest multi-disciplinary science society, the American Association for the Advancement of Science, condemned the charges, verdict and sentencing as a complete misunderstanding about the science behind earthquake probabilities.

Earthquakes are, of course, nearly impossible to predict, seismologists say. In fact, according to the website for the USGS, no major quake has ever been predicted successfully.

"Neither the USGS nor Caltech nor any other scientists have ever predicted a major earthquake," reads a statement posted on the USGS website. "They do not know how, and they do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future."

http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/italian-experts-convicted-of-manslaughter-over-deadly-2009-quake-1.1005457

There are swarms of seismic activity regularly in Italy and most do not end up causing dangerous earthquakes, said AAAS geologist Brooks Hanson, deputy editor of the organization's Science magazine. He said that if seismologists had to warn of a quake with every swarm there would be too many false alarms and panic.

"With earthquakes we just don't know," Hanson said Monday. "We just don't know how a swarm will proceed."

[4th law of robotics]

19. " they want more and better information about possible future quakes"

And the way to do this is to put all your seismologists in jail and deter anyone with sense from going in to that field.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

20. They should have stuck to reading chickent entrails like the old Romans did.

Then accuse the Romans of pissing off the earthquake God by screwing too much.