Sun Oct 21, 2012, 01:56 AM
AaronMayorga (128 posts)
HuffPost & TPM Electoral Maps
With just fifteen days left until Election Day and less than one day until the third Presidential Debate, the Huffington Post and Talking Points Memo Electoral Maps show President Obama with a commanding lead in the EV race.
At the moment, the Huffington Post shows the President with 277 Electoral Votes, seven more required to clinch a second term, and Republican Mitt Romney with 206 EVs. The map shows Obama winning Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Governor Romney holds a slight lead in North Carolina, with New Hampshire, Florida, Virginia and Colorado as toss-ups.
Similarly, the Talking Points Memo Electorial Scoreboard shows President Obama with 259 Electoral Votes, and leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nevada. Once again, Republican challenger Mitt Romney lags behind with only 199 EVs, while holding slight leads in North Carolina and New Hampshire. Toss-ups include Ohio, Colorado, Arizona, Florida, and Virgina.
Interestingly, the TPM Electoral Scoreboard shows Tennessee as only "leaning Romney." Perhaps, Tennessee may be this election cycle's Indiana, but that seems unlikely.
With these current maps, a Romney victory seems highly unlikely, however a strong debate on Monday may turn the tides in his favor. Even then, for Romney to reach the magical 270, it would require him to win Ohio (where Obama currently leads), Florida (which according to a CNN poll, is only leading by 1%), Colorado, and then some.
For more insight, Sam Wang's Princeton Election Consortium shows the President with 293 EVs with Romney winning 245 EVs. The "meta-margin" shows Obama with a 2.12% lead. Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight projects the President to win 288.6 (289) EVs with 50.0% of the Popular Vote, and winning the Election 68% of the time.
To conclude, it seems as if the President's 271 firewall is holding up. However, for us democrats, we aren't in the clear just yet, but some good news certainly doesn't hurt.
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Response to AaronMayorga (Original post)
Sun Oct 21, 2012, 02:22 AM
BainsBane (39,188 posts)
1. I find it difficult to imagine
Romney having a strong performance in a debate on foreign policy. I understand he's bright enough to study, but his policy is incoherent. Though most Americans seem to know nothing about foreign policy so it may come down to style over substance.