An unusual path to 270 — Western Hispanic Libertarian edition

[cthulu2016]

Last edited Sat Oct 20, 2012, 06:16 PM - Edit history (2)

Talking Points Memo's electoral map is odd. It has only four pure toss-up states—Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and Arizona, of all places. I doubt AZ is really up for grabs, but at least one poll last week showed Obama leading AZ if Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson was included in the polling.

There are two potentialities that, if they developed, could have a regional effect that offered a very unexpected path to 270.

• Unexpectedly large western hispanic turnout.

• Unexpectedly strong western performance by Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson. (Pulling say 3-4% in western states.)

Neither of those is likely, and a perfect storm of both is surely not likely. But how's this for a weird map...

Say Romney won FL, OH, VA, IA, NH... every eastern swing state. But then say Obama won Colorado and Arizona.

Obama 273 - Romney 265

I do not expect either end of that scenario. I do not predict it. It is quite unlikely.

But it is interesting.

[cthulu2016]

1. .

[Zalatix]

2. I'm surprised that Dems haven't helped Libertarian candidates in Conservative districts in AZ & TX

[cthulu2016]

3. And Colorado

[stevenleser]

4. We don't do that kind of stuff. Not sure Libertarians would go for it either.

Kinda disappointing that Greens accept this kind of help from Republicans.