How come nobody's talking about Obama's rebound in Nate Silver's forecast?

[craigmatic]

Obama is back at a 66% chance of winning the race and Nate has him winning every swing state except Florida. It's not really a bad day in polling after all.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[BumRushDaShow]

1. I thought he was back to that yesterday?

I think some did mention.

[craigmatic]

4. I wasn't on so I didn't see it if they did. It just seems to be gloom and doom on here today so I

thought I'd spread some good news.

[BumRushDaShow]

18. I hear ya!

Some of us are trying to focus on the electoral counts instead, but as I mentioned downthread - the same media swore to us that Santorum was on his way to victory, so their sooth-saying should be taken with a whole vat of salt.

[Hamlette]

2. this is from late yesterday, he only updates once a day and its pretty late in the evening. nt

[Fawke Em]

3. Doesn't fit the MSM's narrative?

[catbyte]

5. It's not fitting in with the Amazing Mittster Comeback Meme, what with all those poor pathetic souls

like the entire Fox-PAC lineup and Chuckie Todd & David Gregory angling to be appointed Press Secretary in a Romney Administration. Yuck. I threw up a little in my mouth just writing that.

[skeewee08]

6. This is good!!!!!

[hack89]

7. Because Nate is a RW corporate shill

and only diehard republicans support him.

Or so I was told this morning on another thread.

[Curtland1015]

11. The ONLY pollster we can trust is... which ever one he's currently doing best in.

That one, whicher it is, is the only one I trust! The rest are in the GOP'd pocket!

[budkin]

12. LOL

[former9thward]

8. How can people talk about him when they trash talked him for two days.

On DU I saw him called "a corporate whore" and "just another liar". http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251137921

How can you be a lying corporate whore one day and be credible the next?

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

17. This is DU....

That's pretty much par for the course.

[Ruby the Liberal]

9. Because it isn't skewed for "Todays Momentum Index"

No idea WTF this is, but it made me laugh. http://tom1247.wordpress.com/momentum-2012/

[patrice]

13. Yes. Something more-or-less like this, but with more razzle-dazzle to hide it. nt

[BumRushDaShow]

16. You just made me think of something

that I had forgotten. These same media are the ones who, repectively, predicted that Batshit BachKKKman, Hermit Cain, Newt Getrich, and finally Rick Sanitarium were all going to win.

'Nuff said.

[patrice]

10. Maybe "pushback" isn't considered a valid & reliable statistical phenomenon. Perhaps the experts

consider it to be as much of an echo (an evoked property) as the polls that give it a starting point (e.g. Gravis Marketing).

Maybe subject matter experts do not consider evoked properties to be the same thing as emergent properties, because one is more single-point intentional/top-down and the other is more multi-intentional/bottom-up.

Just speculating here.

[patrice]

14. Maybe subject matter experts are thinking about the difference between "Moneyball" and

Moneyball.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1210166/

[kestrel91316]

15. It's just back to reality, IMHO. The dip was fake.

[Spike89]

19. Biggest change was the shift from register to likely polls

It was inevitable that Obama was going to "drop" once the polls shifted to likely voters. So-called likely voters are simply registered voters with a track record of voting. Some definitions of "likely" ensure that no youth (must haved in a high % of last 8 years elections), or ignore key changes in electorate (black voters are still likely to be engaged, even if they may not vote as heavily in other elections). Not all likely voter screens are equally bad, but they all model themselves on the past, not whether someone is likely to actually vote this year.

Combine that natural shift in polls with the timing of the 1st debate and it was pretty much a slam dunk that Romney would "surge" even though he did nothing of the sort.