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Tue Oct 16, 2012, 10:32 AM

Update on the Gravis Marketing Fraud investigation; Statistician offers proof of fraud in the polls.

Last edited Tue Oct 16, 2012, 11:37 AM - Edit history (1)

There is a small working group that includes some very very talented researchers who have gone way beyond my modest little initial postings.

A short teaser. There is more to come.

We now have a small mountain of hard cold facts that will show a long sustained career of shadowy marketing and fraudulent activity by Kaplan and his other known associates.

There will be no doubt in the end that Kaplan was not a pollster and had some financial interest in misrepresenting himself and the activities of Gravis Marketing.

Let me make this absolutely clear. No doubt. None.

The information is so categorical, and so voluminous that it will raise substantial questions as to how the polling community could be so completely duped.

We have reason to believe that even the claim to attend DeVry, not a particularly bold claim, may not be true.

In fact the only fact that Kaplan has put out that we cannot refute is this one



http://www.site.dougkaplan.net/Doug_Kaplan.html

By the age of 14, I had read several books




One DUer visited Gravis yesterday

No one was there but made the following report


The office is about 10x10.. very small with 4 small desks inside.


Our earlier post has opened up a new front on Gravis Marketing as a fraud.



A statistician has examined his numbers and found them to be statistically impossible

dawolf at logarchism.com

http://www.logarchism.com/2012/10/14/a-gravis-fraud/

has published a statistical exam of Gravis Marketing and concluded that the numbers published are not statistically possible given the sample size. You need to follow his careful point by point argument to get the full weight but this chart gives you the idea:





That article has become the foundation for a thread at Intrade:

https://www.intrade.com/v4/forum/ (there is no direct link to the thread, you have to go to the political discussion forum)

thanks to EmeraldCityGrl for the heads up on that

36 replies, 4044 views

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Reply Update on the Gravis Marketing Fraud investigation; Statistician offers proof of fraud in the polls. (Original post)
grantcart Oct 2012 OP
FSogol Oct 2012 #1
grantcart Oct 2012 #8
oldhippydude Oct 2012 #2
MuhkRahker Oct 2012 #3
renate Oct 2012 #18
myrna minx Oct 2012 #4
porphyrian Oct 2012 #5
Sheepshank Oct 2012 #6
grantcart Oct 2012 #14
Sheepshank Oct 2012 #21
Baitball Blogger Oct 2012 #24
Sheepshank Oct 2012 #30
BlueStreak Oct 2012 #7
1StrongBlackMan Oct 2012 #9
BumRushDaShow Oct 2012 #10
gademocrat7 Oct 2012 #11
Jazzgirl Oct 2012 #12
yellerpup Oct 2012 #13
matt819 Oct 2012 #15
Maeve Oct 2012 #16
progressivebydesign Oct 2012 #17
renate Oct 2012 #19
Fawke Em Oct 2012 #20
MuhkRahker Oct 2012 #22
Lone_Star_Dem Oct 2012 #33
beac Oct 2012 #23
patrice Oct 2012 #25
speedoo Oct 2012 #26
HooptieWagon Oct 2012 #27
cliffordu Oct 2012 #28
sabrina 1 Oct 2012 #29
Denzil_DC Oct 2012 #31
sabrina 1 Oct 2012 #32
NorCen_CT Oct 2012 #34
Kurovski Oct 2012 #35
MuhkRahker Oct 2012 #36

Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 10:35 AM

1. K & R. Keep up the good work.

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Response to FSogol (Reply #1)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 11:05 AM

8. thank you on behalf of 'the working group'

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 10:36 AM

2. thanks so much..

fantastic service to the group my friend

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 10:36 AM

3. Great stuff, saw this earlier.

Still waiting for the first break of this scandal in "Google news", I now have Gravis and Paul Kaplan marked for alerts.

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Response to MuhkRahker (Reply #3)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 12:19 PM

18. welcome to DU!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 10:37 AM

4. K&R n.t

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 10:38 AM

5. . n/t

 

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 10:46 AM

6. Limbaugh *knew* this was coming. He *knew* Gravis was going to be outed.

And as is the normal MO, the RW'ers hurry and claim the Left is doing exactly what they have been doing for some time. The right has been manipulating the polls in the hopes of gaining electoral advantage by disheartening the opposition while trying to enthuse their base.

The Right has been doing this with their patently false outrage over Leftie voter fraud.
The Right has done this with voter registration fraud.
The Right has done this with calls that Obama has not worked across the ailse
The Right has done this with the "concern" over LW filibusters.
The Right has done this with debate lies.
The Right has done this with proclaiming the Left has increased spending
The Right has done this with claiming the Leftie have not created jobs
The Right has done this with claiming the Left is not an advocate of small business.

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Response to Sheepshank (Reply #6)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 12:02 PM

14. has Limbaugh made any comments about Gravis?

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Response to grantcart (Reply #14)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 12:39 PM

21. My not so very clear reference......

Limbaugh has been on air, complaning that the Left is manipulating the Polls to discourage the RW'ers from getting out the vote.

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Response to Sheepshank (Reply #21)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 12:53 PM

24. Projectionism.

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Response to Baitball Blogger (Reply #24)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 02:27 PM

30. It's not just a psychological phenomena....it's a deliberate political strategy n/t

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 10:48 AM

7. This link gets you into the InTrade thread

http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/preList/494211/564967.page

You may have to scroll around a bit from there.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 11:13 AM

9. Posted to for later viewing; but ...

I guess I really don't need to read it ... The verdict is already in.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 11:17 AM

10. K&R

And thanks for your exhaustive work!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 11:23 AM

11. Great work

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 11:27 AM

12. Excellent work!

Glad you all are keeping on top of this. One day we'll see it splashed across HuffPost and MSNBC and CNN and.....oh....wait....

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 11:31 AM

13. Good work!

You are amazing, truly!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 12:10 PM

15. This leads to a much larger problem

It is pathetic that so many in the media, including Silver, have been duped in this way. I have little doubt that the response, if there even is a response, from Silver, et al, is that the "results" from Gravis had no material effect on his/their analyses. This is bad enough.

A larger problem is the question of how many of these bogus operations are feeding lies into "the system." I would find it hard to believe that Gravis is the sole "bad apple," so, in the end, there's really no telling whether the meta poll analyses we are seeing have any basis in reality.

And then there's the question of whether the poll results from established operations are valid, given that some polls traditionally, and consistently, lean right or left.

And I still have the problem that despite the neck and neck race the media is portraying, Silver and others put the "probability" of an Obama win at 80+%.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 12:12 PM

16. Back in the day, I took journalism classes in college

Back in the day when "journalism" was actually taught and respected....(I quit because I did not want to compete with my fiancee in the same field. Little did I know the field would disappear to be replaced with 'media reporters')

What you have done is the sort investigation real journalists DO. Assemble the facts, dig into the truth, expose the lies. I wish my words could express the warmth in my heart that your work has engendered. This is what the free press was supposed to do. I wish it still did.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 12:18 PM

17. K&R. Wonderful work. Let this be the first of MANY frauds exposed. nt

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 12:21 PM

19. fantastic work!



And funny too! "By the age of 14, I had read several books"...

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 12:27 PM

20. Has anyone been sending this to Nate Silver?

He's the one weighting Gravis's polls so fondly, so isn't he the one who should see this expose?

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Response to Fawke Em (Reply #20)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 12:44 PM

22. I sure have!

But I'm not stopping at Nate. This story is either going to be HUGE and absolutely blow up or be totally ignored. I'm contacting my friend who works with The Young Turks next, they'll run with this one. I will be sending this to a bunch of bloggers I like too, one of them has questioned GravMark''s results a few times in the recent past...

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Response to MuhkRahker (Reply #22)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 03:46 PM

33. Welcome to DU!

Nice to have you aboard.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 12:52 PM

23. Hurrah for grantcart & Co.!!



Hope Nate Silver is being copied on all this.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 12:53 PM

25. K&R and Shared.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 12:57 PM

26. K&R

And thanks again grantcart and your group.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 01:04 PM

27. Nice work, grantcart and others who contributed to exposing Gravis Marketing.

Which leads me to an obvious question: Are they the only one? Doesn't stand to reason Rove & co would put all their eggs in one basket. Perhaps Gravis is merely a smokescreen. Their operation is so amateurish, perhaps Rove & co KNEW they'd be outed, thus diverting attention from bigger and more professional fish?

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 01:11 PM

28. K&R.

Shore do hope someone in the MSM runs with all of this.....

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 01:38 PM

29. This was really impressive work. And as other people have said in the thread, is this the only

one? And if Nate Silver wants to stay relevant, he needs to comment on this and stop using these polls from now on.

I would not be surprised if the same people who funded Breitbart aned O'Keefe et al, funded this phony operation. They always seem to pick people like this, O'Keefe eg, who are willing to lie and have shady histories.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 02:34 PM

31. Kick!

Keep it coming!

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 03:36 PM

32. Grantcart, not sure if you saw this diary on Daily Kos re your work:

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 06:12 PM

34. $$$

How is Doug Kaplan paying for all of this? I remember reading a quote where he stated that he was basically paying for this out of his own pocket (Office space, telecom equipment & service, employees....that is unless he really is just getting the numbers given to him, and he creates a polling release, along with the subsequent data off of that)? I can think of absolutely NO way that he can be paying for all of this, unless he is discretely being given some PAC money, or is an individual's/groups puppet.

I've done a little (OK, a more than a little) digging into this, and it seems that Doug not only has no other job, but actually owes (liens/garnishments) the IRS, as well as a few banks/mortgage lenders (foreclosure) to the tune of $350,000 (or more. $350k is all I've discovered so far, can post proof/links if need be).

Grantcart, let me know if you would like me to forward you (not enough posts/reply's to use DU mail ) the financial information/documents I have (a few criminal dockets as well). I prefer to have you post them up, as you've done such a great job with Gravis already, and I'd prefer to a) not bury the financial part of this in a comment, and b) better to keep this in as few posts as possible, so probably better off in your next follow-up, as opposed to me starting a new thread.

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 08:41 PM

35. K&R. (nt)

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Response to grantcart (Original post)

Wed Oct 17, 2012, 09:46 PM

36. Kick...

Kick...

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