Obama Camp Slams Gallup

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_____ The Obama campaign’s Joel Benenson slammed this poll and Gallup’s historical accuracy. “Only 2 years ago the distortions in Gallup’s likely voter screen were exposed, leaving Gallup’s survey 9 points off the mark just days before the election,” Benenson writes.

Furthermore, Benenson writes that Gallup’s thorough likely voter screen creates an inherent “bias against groups inclined to support Obama.”

We believe the problem with Gallup’s outlying data is rooted in their 7 question likely voter screen, which distorts the composition of likely voters, leading to erratic and inaccurate results.

For example, Benenson objects to Gallup asking voters if they have voted in their precinct before and where they go to vote. He says that this intimidates casual voters who drop out of the likely voter model because they cannot or refuse to answer this question.

Finally, the memo was accompanied by a graphic which showcases just how much of an outlier Gallup’s numbers appear to be among women. The memo shows that, across a number of post-debate polls, Romney suffers an average 10 point deficit among Women compared to just over 2 points on average deficit with the broader electorate.



read: http://www.mediaite.com/online/obama-camp-unskews-gallup-poll-showing-romney-leading-in-swing-states-tied-among-women/

read more: http://www.nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/obama-campaign-criticizes-gallup-for-swing-state-poll-20121015

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1. kick

[flamingdem]

2. K&R

[regnaD kciN]

3. It does seem rather odd...

...for virtually every other poll to show Obama running stronger in swing states than nationwide, and this poll showing the exact opposite.

I'm sure Nate Silver will take it at face value, though.

[OldDem2012]

4. Thank you! Well done! nt.

[ProSense]

5. Nate Silver wasn't a fan of that poll either:

Looking at breakouts of "swing states" from national polls is just dumb when there are dozens of actual swing state polls out every week.

http://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight

[LiberalAndProud]

6. Am I the only one weary of reading polls?

OutLiar or no. There is one poll I am interested in. When people actually vote, they throw the "LV" factor out of the equation.

Take a friend to the polls with you.

[font size = "4" color="blue"Get Out the Vote![/font]

[bigtree]

7. weary, yes

. . . but this is a bit beyond obsessing on the latest poll. The landscape that underlay previous poll 'models' and forecasts has changed in dramatic and notable ways. One was highlighted in April by the OFA leadership:

In April, Obama senior adviser David Axelrod tweeted a link to a piece written by National Journal's Ronald Brownstein. That article suggested that Gallup's registered-voter pool included fewer nonwhite respondents than the overall population of registered voters and the probable November electorate.

Two months later, in an exhaustive story, the Huffington Post's Mark Blumenthal wrote that certain methodological quirks were leading to Gallup surveying fewer nonwhites than other pollsters, which was leading to poorer ratings for Obama on its presidential approval measure.

Last week, however, Gallup made some changes to its methodology. It began making fully half of its phone calls via cell phone and made slight alterations to demographic targets for weighting, which had the initial result of surveying more nonwhite respondents for the president's approval rating.

read: http://www.nationaljournal.com/2012-presidential-campaign/obama-campaign-criticizes-gallup-for-swing-state-poll-20121015

It's not as if all of these pollsters are going to lose their influence if we just decide to stop paying attention.

[krawhitham]

8. Not a good sign when you have the trash the polls

The Rethugs were doing the same 3 weeks ago

[ProSense]

10. Not the same thing.

The Gallup poll is old, and most likely an outlier.

Speaking of "not a good sign""

The Romney Campaign Shredded A New Poll That Shows Obama Destroying Mitt Romney Among Early Voters
http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-romney-early-vote-poll-voters-reuters-ipsos-2012-10

[bigtree]

12. sometimes you have to call a lie a lie

You can define that any way you want, but you can either defend their methods; call them out for them; or ignore them.

It's little more than self-serving to just stand back and slam the folks looking for some fairness and accuracy to these pollsters' privileged, elevated, influential and contradictory claims.

[AtomicKitten]

9. The varying polls & the cancellation of exit poling in some 19 states

... will create enough chaos that manipulation of the election outcome could occur.

Bank on it.

[spanone]

11. screeeeeeew the polls.

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13. what, and take away the entire definition of a Romney 'win' in the last debate?

All of that's based on these marginally shifting polls . . . can't just leave the debate over the debate folks without their manufactured wood to chew on and spit out.

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14. kick

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[Baitball Blogger]

17. kick