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Sat Oct 13, 2012, 08:29 AM

 

Updated list of bad poll firms to those that do not know. (7)

Last edited Fri Oct 19, 2012, 08:41 PM - Edit history (4)

edit to add list to first post of bad pollsters
Rasmussen
Gravis
ARG- American Research Group
Crossroads GPS
Strategic Alliance
American Crossroads
weaskamerica (we ask america)


and Gallup's LV skewered heavily to the south

keep them coming in.



I know alot of you already realize that, but for the many who don't

This year, those sites that average different polls out, like my personal favorite,
electoral-vote.com have started listing a separate page which takes out all Rasmussen(fox propaganda) polls out.

So they show two different pages. One with, one without.

HOWEVER, what seems to have happened (OOH, COINCIDENCE, AT THE SAME TIME)- is
Karl Rove and the boys and Ras started brand new poll firms to do polls reflecting the same Rasmussen stuff as the one now not taken seriously.
Then they release new polls ALL AT THE SAME TIME, therefore

when pollsters like Nate Silver and others and electoral-vote himself, do the daily new polls,
it skewers it totally to the rightwing polls and keeps it there for days.

IMPORTANT ***** THERE ARE NOT ENOUGH NORMAL REGULAR POLLS TO OFFSET AN AVERAGE IF 4 OR 5 OR 6 POLLS ARE INCLUDED FROM THE OTHER SIDE.
THE WEIGHT OF THE POLLS ALL BEING EQUAL has distorted everything (which is the goal of those

and furthermore- it leads to the demoralization of our side, with one negative post after another about polls(and even when a poster is finally caught and tossed, a new one will attempt to do the same thing

Negativity then gets more negativity and the demoralization of 'the troops" is done.

And Karl Rove and the boys are smiling ever after.

(this is one reason I and others here, so desperately were trying to keep things positive the last 2 weeks in a sea of negativity, and my comment about potted plants being spotted in our garden and my comments about debbie downers and sad sams and cutten runners.

We need to remember this about polls- and we should bombard the pollsters themselves who give averages like Nate Silver, telling them to tell us the averages if all the Ras & other named firms lurking that are doing Rove's work, are taken out of the equation

So we see a true picture each day.

BTW-Electoral-vote today has Obama at 290-Mitt at 239 with 9 tied each way, meaning
EVEN WITH ALL THE RIGHTWING POLLS INCLUDED, MITT STILL HAS NO EASY WAY OF BREAKING THROUGH TO 270, as I for one cannot believe some of the recent turns of states to red(NOW INCLUDED IN MITTS 239) will remain Mitt's.

Obama has this thing won, no matter how many fake polls are used.
However, we need to all figure out some solution about names of polls and who in reality backs them behind the curtain and get rid of them from the equation if the Nate Silver's actually want to report REAL HARD NEWS and not try to become a superstar sellout(like Chuck Todd for instance).

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Reply Updated list of bad poll firms to those that do not know. (7) (Original post)
graham4anything Oct 2012 OP
kelliekat44 Oct 2012 #1
Tennessee Gal Oct 2012 #2
OldDem2012 Oct 2012 #12
Tennessee Gal Oct 2012 #21
NYC Liberal Oct 2012 #27
OldDem2012 Oct 2012 #31
geckosfeet Oct 2012 #3
PATRICK Oct 2012 #29
Caretha Oct 2012 #4
graham4anything Oct 2012 #5
byeya Oct 2012 #6
DavidL Oct 2012 #7
mick063 Oct 2012 #8
Hugin Oct 2012 #9
OldDem2012 Oct 2012 #10
lonestarnot Oct 2012 #11
Scuba Oct 2012 #13
Mc Mike Oct 2012 #26
olegramps Oct 2012 #14
Maeve Oct 2012 #15
byeya Oct 2012 #16
Dustlawyer Oct 2012 #17
barbtries Oct 2012 #18
ellie Oct 2012 #19
Iliyah Oct 2012 #20
thatgemguy Oct 2012 #22
axollot Oct 2012 #24
spooky3 Oct 2012 #28
Grammy23 Oct 2012 #34
lynintenn Oct 2012 #23
cthulu2016 Oct 2012 #25
graham4anything Oct 2012 #32
graham4anything Oct 2012 #35
treestar Oct 2012 #30
arthritisR_US Oct 2012 #33
Grammy23 Oct 2012 #36
arthritisR_US Oct 2012 #37
CoffeeCat Oct 2012 #39
diane in sf Oct 2012 #38
A-Schwarzenegger Oct 2012 #40
Tribetime Oct 2012 #41
graham4anything Oct 2012 #42
CuriousAboutPolls Oct 2012 #43
graham4anything Oct 2012 #44

Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 08:32 AM

1. I think most DUers know this but we need to make our family and friends aware of this and perhaps

Rachel and or Ed and Lawrence should do a show on this?

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 08:38 AM

2. According to the map from Electoral Vote,

187 are strongly Dem, 50 are likely Dem, and 53 are barely Dem. That does not seem all that strong to me. Am I wrong?

Not that it matters much, but Tennessee is definitely red, red, red.

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Response to Tennessee Gal (Reply #2)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 10:09 AM

12. Because the polls are being "influenced" to the right by Rove, so is the Electoral Map.

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Response to OldDem2012 (Reply #12)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 10:41 AM

21. Going to their Rasmussen free map changes the

strongly Dem from 187 to 189, the likely Dem from 50 to 38, and the barely Dem for 53 to 63. The total stays the same.

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Response to Tennessee Gal (Reply #21)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 11:26 AM

27. Because that only gets rid of Rasmussen, not other right-wing polls.

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Response to NYC Liberal (Reply #27)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 12:25 PM

31. Bingo. I thought I was being pretty clear with my post to Tennessee Gal....

....but I guess not.

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 08:45 AM

3. All the more reason to remember that r0m0ney is a tax cheat, liar and fraud.

Tax cheat - well documented.

Mitt Romney's Tax Dodge

Liar - Bain bought viable companies, squeezed every last cent out of the balance sheets for investor profit and in the process destroyed the company and many jobs along with it. The lying bastard was never a "job creator" and the corporate class is not a job creator. They exist to make profit. Right now they are sitting on billions if not trillions of dollars of cash handed to them through the bush tax cuts. Money that could be doing a lot to employ people and rebuild the country and economy.

The First Debate: Mitt Romney's Five Biggest Lies

Fraud - see tax cheat and liar above. If he is the great businessman that he claims to be, why can't we see the tax returns? Are they that fucking bad? What criminal activity will they expose? How is an election against a lying asshole like this even close?

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Response to geckosfeet (Reply #3)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 11:40 AM

29. Answered own question

Right down to its roots the GOP offering is fraud, theft and false propaganda. While it might seem a throwaway just to maintain a fake smokescreen over undeserved Congressional and statehouse power it certainly is a total attempt to win anyway and any way they can. it is a test of impunity standards every year while Dems remain stationary in honest registration and moderation mode. What the Dems fail to do to protect the vote the GOP dares to take up and reverse on their heads alone.

The ticket represents the heart and core of the GOP whether their voters like it or not. This will end up being groundwork for next time depending exactly on how dependably little the Dems react to this steady encroachment against their vote totals and fair public forums.

It's quite a list, with names and organization trees and specified donors replete with naked agendas that no American in their right mind is quite exposed to by a heavily fraudulent or useless news community.

Registration: Limit all Dem and local efforts to register general voters but allow GOP fraud efforts and their targeted registration of their people. They grouse about early voting, trying to get their losing numbers in but count on big efforts to kill that if they "rebound" in still rigged states.

Removing people from roles. Individual battles and general war will continue with no question it seems of anyone able to lay down a general law or enforcement of the issue. Numerous, dirty and well known methods.

Trench warfare on Obama SCOTUS nominees. If no other obstruction happens, this will to the bitter end. This simply is their golden ticket at the end of the dark rainbow.

The electoral college. Roles have shifted. It is now the GOP, not just complacent but desperate to game the one way you can win with less popular votes- which is very likely since they will not ever benefit the people(47,50,60,80%). You would think with the simple Dem majorities in cities and big states this would be risky, but it is doable, necessary and gamed by "red" state giveaways which is the flip side of the once consistently limited Dem electoral strategy.

Electronic voting machines. For a system of INHERENTLY, by its very nature, insecure electronic translation of ballot choice and counting every stage where an electronic transfer occurs is "hackable". Nothing, nada, has been been to halt or reverse the increase and dominance of this adulterated crap. Every part of the process works for the GOP, from breakdowns(long lines, shrinking number of polling places, ballot switching, bad numbers) to outright total manipulation with man in the middle editing, even out of state is entrusted to GOP leaning companies with proprietary software that rarely follow the weak guidelines and checks where they are in place. The vine of party leadership does not feed reform (or anti-false reform)efforts.

The general corruption of politics by money. The general lack of law and order in elections except for irrational GOP bullying.

Finally, when collared the old political shrug. "We just have to swamp the swamp with more Dem votes, lean more to the general propaganda enforced delusions, live with corruption, face up to the people never being able to match big money(most of which is ending up as our tax and savings funneled into the noose that hangs us)." No vision for reform anymore, nearly as muted as blacked out media news.

By the way, it seems the stories spill out without digging about them using every dirty election trick that ever existed to get the impossible tyranny over the under-served majority. The fact is, pols don't want election laws applied to them as a matter of greatest self-interest. There public treason flourishes as in few other public areas of law.

With a principle of no accountability honest voting is merely the last remaining threat to their careers.

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 09:07 AM

4. Sounds very Rovian to me

- a very clever way to skew the polls and perhaps steal another election.

It would be a very good idea to list these pollsters, and perhaps out them.

I'll start with 2 that have been outed here on DU:

Gravis
ARG - American Research Group.

Are these 2 included in the right-wing shifting of the "weighted polls"?

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Response to Caretha (Reply #4)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 09:12 AM

5. Bad pollsters-Rasmussen Gravis ARG(american research group)Crossroads American Crossroads

 

Last edited Sat Oct 13, 2012, 12:43 PM - Edit history (1)

so far its
Rasmussen
Gravis
ARG- American Research Group
Crossroads GPS
American Crossroads

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 09:16 AM

6. I am one who did not know and I appreciate your taking the time to explain it to me(us?)

 

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 09:34 AM

7. It's important for everyone to know why Rasmussen is...

 

such a biased poll.

Basically, they call more Republicans than Dems because they only take the first call answered and older voters, who trend Repub, are home more during the day and early eve than younger Dems. They never re-dial the same number twice, so they take the first who answers their call, trending older voters.

Its all explained here on this page:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Info/rasmussen.html

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 09:51 AM

8. An analogy

 

Last edited Sat Oct 13, 2012, 11:28 AM - Edit history (1)

My dad worked for the Corps of Engineers at the highest civilian level. He had to deal with politics often.

One thorn in his side was the salmon runs on the Columbia River and the impact that Dams had on them.

Often this issue would pit biologists against each other in court.

My dad often said, "A biologist will reflect the science of the people that write his paycheck".

You can say the same thing about pollsters.

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 10:02 AM

9. Keep this on the front page.

and... GOTV!

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 10:06 AM

10. Thanks for explaining what I and others strongly suspected!...

....I guess the question now is which polls have not been corrupted by Rove's efforts and are still producing honest results? Those are the polls we should be watching, if any.

I wish we had access to the internal polls being conducted by the Obama Campaign.

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 10:06 AM

11. K & R against liars!

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 10:10 AM

13. Most polls are designed to shape opinion, not measure it.

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Response to Scuba (Reply #13)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 11:18 AM

26. +1 to this, and the o.p. nt.

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 10:13 AM

14. This is why I appreciate DU. It is a gold mine of information.

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 10:19 AM

15. I believe you are right--but it is easy to catch the fear

Fear is what the right has been selling for years--not just selling, but giving away. Frightened people are easily swayed by empty promises spoken with conviction and the right are filled with confidence (confidence men usually are--otherwise, they couldn't con anyone!)

The Columbus Dispatch here in Ohio is working to write the story of this race as the tale of Mitt coming from behind and winning with his "proven leadership" BS. They were wrong four years ago; I think they are still wrong. I'm sure the other corporate media are following the same line. But not all things being sold are bought.

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 10:21 AM

16. So ,then, the RupubliKKKan machine creates these spurious polls to make the election appear

 

closer than it is so that, (a) more of their side will feel compelled to donate; (b) the media will ramp up "it's anybody's ballgame" story; and (c) when the RepubliKKKans steal the 2 - 4% they are capable of doing, less suspicion will be thrown their way.
Right?

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 10:33 AM

17. Chuck Todd is a tool! I guess he figured out that the shift of MSM more to the right, he would

be rewarded both by MSM and by Rove & Co. I get so tired of this shite sometimes! However, I NEVER give up, EVER!

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 10:36 AM

18. i think i'm ready

to do away with all polls. this roller coaster ride is too stressful. just GOTV and it'll be four more years.

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 10:37 AM

19. I recall 2008 was the same way.

McCain was close up to election day and Obama ended up winning. I would trust the Obama campaign's internal polls and get out and volunteer! We won't win unless we GOTV.

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 10:37 AM

20. Remember when the GOPpers were screaming about the polls

"Truthers", well they were setting up for their own polls to bombard showing their candidate favors. Always remember when they scream about something they are doing it themselves. Voter fraud, guess who is doing the actually the voter fraud, yes the GOP.

Yes, the GOPpers are setting up for a potential steal and I have no doubt about it. Yes the GAWD fearing so called "Christians" (NOT) are evil hell and if there is a heaven and hell I truly hope they meet him, the devil with open arms!

Look at Libya, the house goppers are covering up and putting blame on O. These are some truly evil people who follow satan not GOD.

Obama will win

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 11:00 AM

22. I'm in Ohio

I've received three telephone calls this week doing political polls. I've hung up on all three.

One of the callers ask me to participate in a short survey. Nearly ten minutes later, after being asked some very leading questions, I ended the call. The caller, then called back three times, to try to get me to finish the poll. I might add that this was 9:30 at night.

Last night I received a robo poll call asking me to respond using the telephone keypad. I picked random keys to answer all questions.

I'm tired of the daily interuptions of telephone politics...

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Response to thatgemguy (Reply #22)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 11:09 AM

24. Oh have fun with those polls..

I like to tell them I am an independent. I make it clear who I will vote for and these same companies keep calling back. In some ways I am an independent anyway - like a Bernie Sander's progressive rather than a corporate Democrat.

Peace and remember skew their polls.

Cheers
Sandy

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Response to thatgemguy (Reply #22)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 11:32 AM

28. Similar things happened to me (in VA) and to another DUer (in Iowa)--see this thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251133102

Sometimes they block their phone # so you will see "private caller" on your caller ID. Sometimes they use a fake name like "Alexandria VA" when they are actually calling from another location. And if you ask, they refuse to identify themselves as anything other than a "national polling firm."

Obviously, many Obama voters will see through this and not participate, so the #s they get will be way off.

I'm surprised they are going to all this trouble to commit fraud, when they could simply lie about calling anyone.

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Response to thatgemguy (Reply #22)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 01:01 PM

34. I have an answering machine that says out loud who the caller is. If I don't recognize the name


or number, I don't answer and simply let the machine pick up. Many of the callers (and pollsters, too, I guess) have gotten wise to this and block their outgoing number, so many, many calls say "Unknown caller". If it says that, I do not ever pick up. If it's someone I actually know and they start talking to leave a message, I can pick up the phone and talk to them.

Ironically, this morning I got a call and it was announced as "Unknown caller." So I let the machine pick up. A few seconds into the call I hear a voice say, "Hello, this is John McCain....calling for Mitt Romney...." I jumped up at that point, picked up the receiver and then hung back up, thus ending the call. I hope they recorded that as a hang up! LOL That is the second or third call like that we've received in the past week. One was from Ann Romney. Ick....

Sure wish they'd leave this life long Democrat alone. But at least my machine helps screen my calls!

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 11:05 AM

23. Thanks for your explanation

All these polls posts were making me nervous and suspicious of many of the posters.

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 11:09 AM

25. If "Obama has this thing won" then why so agitated?

This is a logical inconsistency.

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Response to cthulu2016 (Reply #25)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 12:41 PM

32. because we have a chance to win the house and 56 in the senate that's why. And 2014 and 2020 22 24

 

that is why

the house is now have a chance but I don't want it to go had a chance

every seat is important, every state, optismism breeds optimism
negativity dissent is what they want

With the house we control the investigations
With an amount of GOOD democrats closer to 60, we can stop obstruction as the middle roaders of the right will have to do something or get a challenger

we are very close, on the cusp of forever holding power

the more in the house and senate, the better the SCOTUS pick going from acceptable to legendary great

That is why

and these polls bring the demoralization of the "troops" here and in real life

every vote counts


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Response to cthulu2016 (Reply #25)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 01:04 PM

35. why do you use the word "agitated". What are you implying?

 

agitated is a word security in hospitals uses to chain an elderly person to the bed
or cops use right before tasering a person 50 times
what exactly is this word agitated used for here?

And even Nate Silver, today has obama at around 65% chance of winning.
Mitt is up to 35% but hey there ho there, I would think 2 to 1 is great odds and anyhow, one can't legally bet in the US on elections

but if people write a headline"Mitt and Glove are up to 35" it is a negative headline and is a loser and the politics of demoralization
Whereas if the headline is Obama leads Mitt in odds to win 2 to 1, well baby that sounds like a winner to me.

which would you rather a person entering a thread read?
in the words of a poster who once was on another board I had the mispleasure of bumping into "methinks" I would rather have a 2 to 1 odds of winning.(and that is right at this moment from Nate Silver.)

and I want to win the house, then we can investigate Isaa and wonder why he is wasting so much money going on fishing trips when he should be working for America.



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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 12:09 PM

30. There have been a plethora of new ones

And it would be just like Rove to do that.

They are gleeful at how easily we are manipulated. They are gleeful at how they manipulate right wingers, there is no doubt, but they need more sophisticated methods for manipulating us, and if it works, are even more thrilled at their "accomplishment."

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Response to treestar (Reply #30)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 12:52 PM

33. The belief that this is a tight race will make

the theft easier.

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Response to arthritisR_US (Reply #33)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 01:11 PM

36. Exactly. And it makes for less questions.....or so they think.


Just as soon as the election is over and surprise, surprise....they can claim, Well, it was a very close, tight race. Our man just got more voters to the polls. Or something similar. They will try to soothe us with that explanation and will discount exit polls and any other method they can find to not make a fuss over the results. They will say Obama fought a good fight but the voters chose Romney. They are counting us griping, complaining bitterly, posting our sadness and outrage here and other places. And then doing nothing but lick our wounds and go quietly away. How long are we going to keep doing this?

I am not sure how you fight against this if no one will listen to you or discounts your arguments. They will tell us and everyone else that we are simply wearing Tin Foil Hats and are just not rational or we are just showing our sour grapes over the outcome. I wish I knew that we would really take the streets with pitch forks and torches. But alas, I fear that if it is stolen (AGAIN), we will just bitch and moan among ourselves until we're all worn out and defeated.

Any signs of hope that we're not going to do this any more? Will it be possible to use the organization that the Obama Team has built to take our outrage and distrust to the next level? Or is Resistance futile?

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Response to Grammy23 (Reply #36)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 01:36 PM

37. Given they are doing away with exit polls

I really am apprehensive. If it is stolen, I so hope for massive resistance! The days of licking our wounds in a quiet corner are gone

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Response to treestar (Reply #30)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 12:58 AM

39. All of a sudden we were deluged with polls!!!

It was unbelievable! Like magic, this large bounty of polls was dumped on us--and most of these polls were from organizations that we'd never heard of. And all of these polls favored Romney.

And you know what? If they have to lie about poll numbers and pull a stunt like that--for sure they are losing.

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 10:38 PM

38. This looks like the Repugs are blowing smoke to cover stealing elections

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 01:50 AM

40. WEASKAMERICA.

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 01:53 AM

41. never heard of the last 3

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 02:14 AM

42. Power of Demoralization as a political tool

 

demoralization can cause a "theft" without the actual need for a theft.

demoralization as a political tool leads to depressing the vote, people think a theft will happen, the figure why bother
people get depressed and voila, without actually having a theft occur, the result is the same, our candidate loses.

It is another reason that people here, need to take a positive attitude back to their friends and family and pass it along to them that Obama will win. And implore them to also carry it forward to their friends and their friends and workers families.and so on and so on

I have not seen one Obama voter shift sides to Mitt. NOT ONE.
And the phony polls are why it seems like it has occurred, but it is just an illusion

and it goes on


It is why they keep going, because they know this, they created this and they want to demoralize us so they keep winning.

We can beat Karl Rove and the republicans by winning this election and the ones in 2014 and 2016 and 2018 and 2020 and 2022.
We can win the house, we can win the senate, the presidency and we need to win the governorships in Texas and Florida especially and then with their side out of office and not controlling the agenda and election bureaus, they lose

We must get all democratic voters to ignore the media in total, and just think of getting their vote in, early, absentee, or at the polls 11/6/2012, and the prize is winning reelection and taking the senate and taking back the house.
ONly vote for democrats or those that will caucus with the democrats (like Angus King) in states where at all cost, we must defeat the republicanlibertarianteaparty(any and all, they are one and the same, as they are a vote against President Obama.) NO WASTED VOTES, no sitting home. NO excuses.
No retreat, no surrender.

The more democrats and those that side with the democrats, the more Karl Rove and the boys are defeated. 2010 proved what happens when democrats do not vote.Democrats stayed home, and they spinned it that it was against Obama's agenda. NO it was not. By not voting, we lost and it directly elected those draconian governors in Fl/Wisc/NJ,etc.

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 03:12 AM

43. New to the thread and have some questions...

Hi. I am new to Democratic Underground. I saw your discussion of polls like ARG, Gravis, and We Ask America. I wonder where I can find more info on how they are Republican leaning or connected in some way to Karl Rove. Thanks for any help...

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Response to graham4anything (Original post)

Fri Oct 19, 2012, 08:40 PM

44. updated Oct. 19, 2012

 

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