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Tue Oct 9, 2012, 03:26 PM

What Romney Does Not Want Discussed (He would rather the media keep covering last weeks debate)

Home prices rebound
By Chris Isidore @CNNMoney September 25, 2012: 10:11 AM ET
http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/25/real_estate/home-prices/index.html

"In another sign of a turnaround in the long-battered real estate market, average home prices rebounded in July to the same level as they were nine years ago..."

"The news on home prices in this report confirm recent good news about housing," said David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "Single-family housing starts are well ahead of last year's pace, existing home sales are up, the inventory of homes for sale is down and foreclosure activity is slowing."


Dow Jones index closes at new 5-year high
Adam Shell, USA TODAY
5:08PM EST October 5. 2012
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2012/10/05/sept-jobs-markets/1613559/

..."The fact that the market is hitting fresh five-year highs will remind people how incredibly well the market has done and that the equity culture is not dead," says Tim Fidler, portfolio manager at Ariel Investments. "It will most definitely catch the attention of people who have been pulling money out of the market."


Consumer Confidence Index:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerconfidence.cfm

Says Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board: “The Consumer Confidence Index rebounded in September and is back to levels seen earlier this year (71.6 in February 2012). Consumers were more positive in their assessment of current conditions, in particular the job market, and considerably more optimistic about the short-term outlook for business conditions, employment and their financial situation. Despite continuing economic uncertainty, consumers are slightly more optimistic than they have been in several months...”

"Consumers were also more optimistic about the short-term outlook in September. Those expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months increased to 18.2 percent from 16.7 percent, while those anticipating business conditions to worsen decreased to 13.8 percent from 17.6 percent. Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was also more favorable. Those expecting more jobs in the months ahead increased to 18.5 percent from 15.8 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs declined to 18.5 percent from 23.7 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting an increase in their incomes edged up to 16.3 percent from 16.0 percent."


Wrong Track/ Right Track Poll Movement:
National Polls: Race Tightens Among Likely Voters, Obama Approval On Economy Ticks Up
TPM Kyle Leighton October 1, 2012, 11:50 AM 21769
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/10/polls-presidential-race-tightens-obama-economy.php

New numbers from ABC News and the Washington Post showed Obama with a 49 percent to 47 percent lead over Republican nominee Mitt Romney among likely voters, and another poll from Politico and George Washington University (GWU) produced the same result. While those numbers suggest the state of the race is relatively unchanged, the view of the economy — the election’s most important issue — has seen a slow but steady movement over the last year.

“Ratings of the economy, while very negative, have grown less intensely so since late August (39 percent say it’s in poor shape, down from 45 percent),” ABC pollster Gary Langer wrote in his analysis. “Obama’s 47 percent approval rating for handling the economy, while still underwater, is numerically its highest in more than two years. And views that the nation is headed seriously off on the wrong track have eased by 9 percentage points to the fewest since January".

AND OF COURSE, THIS:

Unemployment rate falls to 7.8% as economy creates 114,000 jobs
By NBC News staff and wire reports
http://economywatch.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/05/14240541-unemployment-rate-falls-to-78-as-economy-creates-114000-jobs?lite

UPDATED 9:50 a.m. EDT: The nation's unemployment rate dropped to the lowest it has been in almost four years in September, giving President Barack Obama a potential upbeat talking point as the presidential race heads into the final innings.

The Labor Department reported Friday that the unemployment rate fell to 7.8 percent in September, a decline of 0.3 percentage point and the lowest since January 2009. The government said the economy created 114,000 jobs, about as expected, and generated 86,000 more jobs in July and August than first estimated.

A survey of households from which the jobless rate is derived showed 873,000 job gains last month, the most since June 1983. The drop in unemployment came even as Americans come back into the labor force to resume the hunt for work. The workforce had shrunk in the prior two months. The household survey is volatile, however."

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Reply What Romney Does Not Want Discussed (He would rather the media keep covering last weeks debate) (Original post)
Tom Rinaldo Oct 2012 OP
Skidmore Oct 2012 #1
Tom Rinaldo Oct 2012 #2
Johonny Oct 2012 #3
Tom Rinaldo Oct 2012 #5
Dawson Leery Oct 2012 #4
fugop Oct 2012 #14
Tom Rinaldo Oct 2012 #15
HopeHoops Oct 2012 #6
porphyrian Oct 2012 #7
Tom Rinaldo Oct 2012 #8
WilliamPitt Oct 2012 #9
Tom Rinaldo Oct 2012 #10
flamingdem Oct 2012 #11
Tom Rinaldo Oct 2012 #12
Tom Rinaldo Oct 2012 #13

Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 03:28 PM

1. K&$ Now get out there and discuss this.

Ed and Rachel and Martin, that means you too.

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Response to Skidmore (Reply #1)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 03:34 PM

2. Yep. This is the real news.

I thought it would be helpful to gather these data points together in one place. It makes it much easier to connect all the dots.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 03:38 PM

3. but those are private houses in private neighborhoods going up by private sales

when the housing prices were dropping it was due to public policies of Obama who was president yet. You see how it works in Mitt's fantasy world. Bad news is Obama's fault, good news is because of the mythical private world of Mitt Romney.

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Response to Johonny (Reply #3)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 03:39 PM

5. Yes that's a good description of Mitt's fantasy world and how it works

These are facts for real people.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 03:38 PM

4. Ed, Rachel, Lawrence, Martin, Tamron, and Tweety......

Are they listening? Send them an email and tell them this is the real story.

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Response to Dawson Leery (Reply #4)

Wed Oct 10, 2012, 09:26 AM

14. So disappointed in them

I can't believe how they failed to pivot away from the debate to the issues. They've become part of the problem, and that makes me sad.

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Response to fugop (Reply #14)

Wed Oct 10, 2012, 09:29 AM

15. Cable News is addicted to Insider talk about the horse race

msnbc does it well from the Democratic perspective, but they can't break themselves from covering the spin on the spin and why and where such and such spin is bogus. The real issues however favor Obama while the current spin cycle does not.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 03:56 PM

6. Maybe he should threaten to kill Barney, Baby Bop, and BJ in the next debate.

 

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 03:57 PM

7. . n/t

 

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 04:20 PM

8. I was dense but I get it now

The real point of some Republicans and other right wingers raising conspiracy issues about the latest unemployment numbers was incredibly simple. It was to create a alternative to actually discussing the meaning of the numbers themselves. It was to soak up air time and print space with the debunking of debunkers, rather than have the real discussion that all the data points listed above points to; the economy is actually recovering and more and more people are getting it That type of brighter future oriented picture is all it takes to kill Romney's chances if enough people start to focus on it.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 04:29 PM

9. Thread posted to BuzzFlash

K&R.

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Response to WilliamPitt (Reply #9)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 04:30 PM

10. Thanks for that Will n/t

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 05:46 PM

11. K&R

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 08:15 PM

12. So I'll discuss it (with the added bonus of kicking in the process)

If the political narrative shifts to a real discussion about the economy, there is no way Romney can win. This is a complete reversal from the Spring/ early Summer when the conventional wisdom was that any day spent not discussing the economy was a bad day for Romney and a good day for Obama.

With the economic outlook brightening, and the worst now well behind us, an incumbent President who is personally significantly more popular than his opponent should be in no real danger of losing IF the public keys in on the improving economy and is not distracted by fake issues and outright lies. Especially when you factor in that Democrats win the generic public approval contest vs Republicans, who have a damaged brand name.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Original post)

Wed Oct 10, 2012, 09:22 AM

13. About the Consumer Confidence Index

From Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_Confidence_Index


Calculation

In simple terms, increased consumer confidence indicates economic growth in which consumers are spending money, indicating higher consumption. Decreasing consumer confidence implies slowing economic growth, and so consumers are likely to decrease their spending. The idea is that the more confident people feel about the economy and their jobs and incomes, the more likely they are to make purchases. Declining consumer confidence is a sign of slowing economic growth and may indicate that the economy is headed into trouble.

Each month The Conference Board surveys 5,000 U.S. households. The survey consists of five questions that ask the respondents' opinions about the following:

Current business conditions
Business conditions for the next six months
Current employment conditions
Employment conditions for the next six months
Total family income for the next six months


Survey participants are asked to answer each question as "positive", "negative" or "neutral". The preliminary results from the Consumer Confidence Survey are released on the last Tuesday of each month at 10am EST.

Once the data have been gathered, a proportion known as the "relative value" is calculated for each question separately. Each question's positive responses are divided by the sum of its positive and negative responses. The relative value for each question is then compared against each relative value from 1985. This comparison of the relative values results in an "index value" for each question.

The index values for all five questions are then averaged together to form the Consumer Confidence Index; the average of index values for questions one and three form the Present Situation Index, and the average of index values for questions two, four and five form the Expectations Index. The data are calculated for the United States as a whole and for each of the country's nine census regions.

How it is used

Manufacturers, retailers, banks and the government monitor changes in the CCI in order to factor in the data in their decision-making processes. While index changes of less than 5% are often dismissed as inconsequential, moves of 5% or more often indicate a change in the direction of the economy.

A month-on-month decreasing trend suggests consumers have a negative outlook on their ability to secure and retain good jobs. Thus, manufacturers may expect consumers to avoid retail purchases, particularly large-ticket items that require financing. Manufacturers may pare down inventories to reduce overhead and/or delay investing in new projects and facilities. Likewise, banks can anticipate a decrease in lending activity, mortgage applications and credit card use. When faced with a down-trending index, the government has a variety of options, such as issuing a tax rebate or taking other fiscal or monetary action to stimulate the economy.

Conversely, a rising trend in consumer confidence indicates improvements in consumer buying patterns. Manufacturers can increase production and hiring. Banks can expect increased demand for credit. Builders can prepare for a rise in home construction and government can anticipate improved tax revenues based on the increase in consumer spending.

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