We need to unskew these Polls going against Obama

[cthulu2016]

Sound familiar?

Poll denial is dumb. Leave it to the RW.

Polls say what they say. No poll is magic. Few polls are entirely worthless.

They are data-points. When you know how to read a poll they say what they purport to say. No more. No less.

If the election were held tomorrow it would be quite close. But the election is not tomorrow.

[ProSense]

1. No we don't, the current Pew poll

is already unskewed.

Current LV

Republican 36 percent
Democrat 31 percent
Independent 30 percent

September LV

Republican 29 percent
Democrat 39 percent
Independent 30 percent


Current RV

Republican 33 percent
Democrat 32 percent
Independent 31 percent


September RV

Republican 28 percent
Democrat 37 percent
Independent 31 percent


Pew has Romney ahead by 4 points among likely voters, tied among registered voters (updated)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021495453

[LisaL]

4. Well that increase in republicans is certainly going to give an appearance of Romney's

doing much better now than he did in September.

[cthulu2016]

5. That is precisely the argument the unskew guy used

And it is a hopeless argument because party identification given to pollsters is unstable. People switch back and forth in how they represent themselves.

Any poll that goes the wrong way will show an oddly low number of our party. That goes for both parties. That is what "unskew" was about... the guy felt that too many Democrats were being sampled, but actually a lot of people in polls identify themselves on the fly however will agree with their headline pick.

That is why Party ID cannot be normed the way pollsters do with age, race, etc..

And how on Earth do you KNOW that the Pew demographics were accurate last month and inaccurate today? Is it not equally likely that they are accurate today and skewed a month ago?

[ProSense]

6. I was being sarcastic, but

you're upset that the sample is significantly different?

The bottom line is that Romney's gain was entirely among white Republicans. Make of that what you will.

[reformist2]

7. True, but we can point out the swings in political identification.

[oswaldactedalone]

2. Who will get this unskewing done for us?

I'm not that good at math. Surely, there is some way to get us back to the comfort zone of Obama leading by 3-6% nationally and by 11 across the swing states.

Those were easy, reassuring, and relaxing numbers. Now, anything but and the excuse makers are out in force. Obama is going to have to change the dynamic of the race and TV ads will be a wash at best.

Pressure's on Joe and Barack, prepare for these debates like there's no tomorrow.

[DisabledAmerican]

3. How about we just let Joe Biden do his thing

By the time Joe Biden has his debate these polls won't matter. Then the next debate and after that these polls will be pointless. Lets just go GOTV