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Mon Oct 8, 2012, 01:57 PM

Got This From Intrade- Could Obama Have Been Up 56% -42% In Sunday's One Day Gallup Sample?

I'm surprised nobody posted this:

From Gallup's Data, the split was 47/47 post debate and 50/45 pre-debate

So the split looks like:

9/30: 50/45
10/1: 50/45
10/2: 50/45
10/3: 50/45
10/4: 47/47
10/5: 47/47
10/6: 47/47

This would give you an average of 49/46, as it was before today's numbers.

Now we have:

10/1: 50/45
10/2: 50/45
10/3: 50/45
10/4: 47/47
10/5: 47/47
10/6: 47/47
10/7: ? / ?

For the rolling average of 50/45 that was posted today, today's data must be much more heavily favorable towards Obama to make the numbers work. 56/42 is most Romney-favorable number that makes this work

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Reply Got This From Intrade- Could Obama Have Been Up 56% -42% In Sunday's One Day Gallup Sample? (Original post)
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 OP
cthulu2016 Oct 2012 #1
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #2
cthulu2016 Oct 2012 #5
nsd Oct 2012 #3
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #4
cthulu2016 Oct 2012 #7
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #10
BumRushDaShow Oct 2012 #6
HereSince1628 Oct 2012 #11
hedgehog Oct 2012 #8
regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #9
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #12
oswaldactedalone Oct 2012 #13

Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 02:00 PM

1. That's pretty much what I got, but that method is flawed

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021494466

The unknown daily numbers should be treated as a pool of 4 unknown days. Not as 4 days of 50/45 of whatever. It makes a difference.

My math says that Obama's number on October 7 was 7 points higher than his number on Sept. 30, but we can't know what those two individual number are -- merely that the one is +7 the other.

56% is probaby the likliest Obama total for Sunday, but cannot be known.

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Response to cthulu2016 (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 02:01 PM

2. So He Won Yesterday 56-42?

But it's a 415 person sample with a huge MOE, but anyway

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #2)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 02:05 PM

5. No, he got +7 compared to 9/30

I didn't bother with trying to calculate Romney, just focusing on Obama's number.

Whatever it was on Sunday it was seven points higher than is was on Sept. 30... so 56 is distinctly possible.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 02:03 PM

3. This assumes that 9/30 was a 50-45 split.

But we don't know that to be true. All we know is that the average for 9/30 to 10/2 was 50-45. It could be that 9/30 was a bad day but that was obscured by terrific days on 10/1 and 10/2.

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Response to nsd (Reply #3)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 02:05 PM

4. You Guys And Gals Are Pretty Smart , Reverse Engineering These Tracking Polls

.

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Response to nsd (Reply #3)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 02:07 PM

7. Right. On 10/7 Obama's number was seven points above what it was on 9/30.

And that's all we can say for sure.

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Response to cthulu2016 (Reply #7)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 02:16 PM

10. If This Would Have Done A Four Day Tracker Instead Of A Three Day Tracker

It would have been

47-47
47-47
47-47
59-41

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 02:06 PM

6. In order to have a 50 - 45 in the 7-day

after the so-called "47%" in the 3-day, there had to be a gigantic jump somewhere in there.

Other threads have been noting it and the media refuses to report it and we are wondering how long they are going to spin the "it's a tie" bullshit.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #6)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 02:17 PM

11. They went to the trouble of making those graphics...they have to use them

for at least 1 day.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 02:16 PM

8. Time will tell if this is a fluke or a trend - which is the function of a rolling average!

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 02:16 PM

9. The problem with your calculations...

...is that they assume the pre-debate days were all equal, and that the three days following the debate were likewise all equal. There was probably quite a bit of variance within both sets of days.

That said, one thing you can extrapolate from tracking polls is the difference between the new day of data and the day that just dropped off the back end of the tracking period (in this case, the polling from last Sunday). The formula is, basically, the overall poll shift times the number of days in the tracker. Since the overall shift could be rounded to 2, that means it was somewhere between 1.5 and 2.49. Multiply that by the seven days of the tracking period, and you get the result that this Sunday's results were between 10.5 and 17.43 points better that last Sunday's.

Now, we don't know exactly what was in last Sunday's numbers -- they might have been poor for Obama. But here's another way of looking at it: pre-debate, it was O+5. Friday's release was still O+5, indicating that Romney still hadn't gotten much of a bounce post debate. Saturday's numbers, however, showed the lead shrinking to +3, which would indicate that Friday was a huge polling day for Romney (which is borne out in the other tracking poll shifts as well). After staying +3 on Sunday (Saturday's numbers) it went back to +5 today. That suggests that the numbers were roughly as favorable to Obama on Sunday as they were to Romney on Friday -- the big polling day for one canceled out by a big one for the other.

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Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #9)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 02:21 PM

12. Playing Gallup's Game I Will Just Extract The Last Four Days For A Four Day Tracker

It would have been

It would have been

47-47 10/4
47-47 10/5
47-47 10/6
59-41 10/7

50-45

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 02:21 PM

13. OK...

so looking at the Gallup numbers from Sunday, let's drop the hammer on these Repig bastards and open up the wallets for the Obama campaign, House, Senate, or any individual you want to. It hurts me to do this, but I just dropped $100 each on OFA, DSCC, and DCCC.

There's no way Obama or Biden are going to bomb in the next debates so we'll regain momentum and kick their ass. Now's our chance, give what you can.

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