Bounce Comes Into Focus

[kentuck]

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/10/bounce_comes_into_focus.php?ref=fpblg

<snip>
Over the course of Saturday we’ve started to get a clearer picture of the effect the Wednesday night debate had on public opinion nationwide. There’s little doubt the immediate effect was to significantly boost Mitt Romney’s standing. (I’ll assume that you’ve read my post from last night going over the polls as of then. If not, you can read it here.) What we’ve learned since last night is that a significant post-debate boost for Romney has shown up in virtually every poll. Ipsos, Rasmussen and Gallup all show marked tightening — with the difference mainly corresponding to the number of days their tracking poll covers.

<snip>
A bounce like this can be ephemeral of course. And the silver lining in today’s numbers for Obama is that there’s at least a bit of evidence that Romney’s momentum has plateaued or even fallen back. The Reuters-Ipsos online tracking poll moved to a 2 point margin yesterday from a 5 point margin the day before. That was with 2 days of 4 of post-debate data. Today though it held steady at a 2 point margin for Obama with 3 of 4 days of post debate data.

<snip>
It’s worth noting that this kind of volatility is one reason many pollsters often prefer not to do quick polls right after major news events. The results can be accurate in a purely statistical sense but also quite misleading about the true state of the race. It’s not simply that opinions can shift quickly right after a major event. But surges of enthusiasm on one side or another can look like shifts in support, especially with likely voter models.

All of this remains uncertain. And the evidence for a fallback for Romney is quite fragmentary at this point. But from incomplete information, what looks clear is that Romney got an immediate boost which pushed him into something like a tie. But there’s now some evidence suggesting the surge is falling back.

[DonViejo]

1. "But there’s now some evidence suggesting the surge is falling back."

Nate Silver's been saying pretty much the same thing, it should start showing up tomorrow and Tuesday.

[Samantha]

2. Always a pleasure to see you posting here

I am following this subject closely. K & R your thread.

Sam