PPP: Wisconsin now a statistical tie

[cali]

Obama 49 to Romney 47.

Big jump for Romney. PPP credits his debate performance.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WI_1006.pdf

[JaneyVee]

1. This race is definitely going to tighten. Obama has to bring it for the next 2.

[Auntie Bush]

2. Puke!

[ProSense]

3. Romney gained among Republicans

Obama lead down to 2 in Wisconsin

PPP's newest Wisconsin poll finds a big debate bump for Mitt Romney in the state. Two weeks ago he trailed Barack Obama by 7 points there, 52-45. Now he's pulled to within two points, with Obama's lead now just 49-47.

There's not much doubt it was Romney's strong debate performance on Wednesday night that's given him this boost. Voters think he won the debate by a 61/25 margin, including a 60/19 margin with independents. 95% of Republicans think Romney won the debate, while only 50% of Democrats claim to think Obama was the winner. Romney's image has seen significant improvement over the last couple weeks with 49% of voters now expressing a positive opinion of him to 48% with a negative one. That's up a net 8 points from a 44/51 spread on our last poll.

The main shift compared to 2 weeks ago in Wisconsin is an increase in Republican enthusiasm about Romney and the election in general. He's gone from leading Obama by 79 points with Republicans (89-10) to an 85 point advantage (92-7). One thing that might be reassuring for Democrats is that Obama's held steady with independents in the state, continuing to hold a 9 point lead.

There's also been a big uptick in Republican enthusiasm about the election. Two weeks ago there was basically no enthusiasm gap with 65% of Democrats and 63% of GOP voters saying they were 'very excited' to vote this fall. Now the Republicans are seeing an advantage on that question with their share of 'very excited' voters climbing to 72% while the Democrats have declined to 63%.

- more -

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-lead-down-to-2-in-wisconsin.html

If Obama is staying steady and winning independents by the same pre-debate margin, Romney's plus is all Republicans.

Other thing I'll say is Saturday interviews we've done for polls across the country look a lot more like our pre-debate than Friday numbers

http://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/254707993717899264

[ProSense]

7. Interstingly,

Reuters also shows Romney's gain is among Republicans.

A bunch of RW polls and one-day polls (which are as useless as snap polls) were dumped all at once over the last couple of days.

The only two polls in the mix that aren't RW are Gallup and Reuters, and neither shows the absurd results these RW polls are showing.

A couple of days ago: Romney gains after debate ... with Republicans (Obama with independents)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021473097

Today: Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking: Obama 47% - Romney 45%
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021485353

More from Ipsos/Reuters poll: Obama still more liked than Romney despite poor debate
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021485522

Obama gained a point yesterday in Gallup.

Similarly, Gallup actually ticked one point up for Obama today, from a 4 point to a 5 point margin. Gallup is on a 7 day rolling average. So it’s hard to read too much into that. But there’s at least no evidence yet of a strong move for Romney.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/10/what_do_the_post-debate_polls_say.php

Today, the margin is back to three points.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx

Nothing earth shattering in either of those polls.

[bigtree]

13. not surprising

Jeff Fecke ?@jkfecke

@ppppolls not surprising. Friday Mitt's bounce was peaking; Friday night (most) people found out abt unemployment.

[mick063]

51. Of course more GOP will like Mitt now.

He moved to the left overnight. There is a huge portion of the GOP that has been alienated by the Tea Party.

Mitt's change of heart made a few undecided Republicans climb back on board. For a moderate Republican, President Obama is more closely aligned with their views than Ryan. The closer Mitt's platform gets to President Obama's platform, the more GOP centrists he will pick up.

[Archae]

4. Bullshit.

The PPP is calling it "nearly even" because the big media news outlets WANT it that way.

That way they get more ratings.

[cash__whatiwant]

5. Isn't PPP a Democratic polling firm? nt

[abumbyanyothername]

8. It is a polling firm that has traditionally had

a Democratic bias.

[cali]

6. oh for fuck's sake. And we laughed at freepwads for pretending that

that all the polls were lying and wrong.

It's just sad seeing DUers decide that reality isn't to their liking so they'll just deny it. I suggest reading Nate Silver's latest. Then you can sputter some more about how Nate is lying and all wrong.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/06/oct-6-romney-maintains-poll-momentum/

[Archae]

9. The only poll worth anything really is in a few weeks.

November 6th, to be exact.

[cali]

11. sorry, but that doesn't cut it.

polls are a snapshot of where things stand at any given moment.

[ProSense]

10. Nate is factoring

in a bullshit poll that shows Romney winning the black vote..

Gravis Marketing Has Willard Romney Winning The African American Vote In CO 60%-40%
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251123534

We can laugh a "freepwads" without being equally stupid.

Here's Nate:

There were few state polls published on Saturday, but a Gravis Marketing poll of Colorado also showed a sharp reversal toward Mr. Romney. He led in its newest survey, which was conducted on Thursday after the debate, by 3.5 percentage points. Although Gravis Marketing polls have had a very strong Republican lean so far this cycle, the trend in the poll is nevertheless extremely favorable for Mr. Romney, since he had trailed Mr. Obama by roughly five percentage points in a poll it conducted in September.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/06/oct-6-romney-maintains-poll-momentum/

Now, that was a nice way of saying the poll is bullshit, but why the hell is Nate Silver giving these polls credibility? The poll is ludicrous. Still, if they want to take these absurd polls seriously an increase Republican delusion, so be it.

"Fair and balanced" is creating the impression that psychos rule this country. You see, Republicans are complaining about the polls so every poll has to be given merit.

Lying is Genius. Greed is good. Vague is brilliant. Cheating is American.

[cali]

12. spin, spin, spin.

gee, why would I trust Siver's take on the status of the race over yours? Hmmm. Might be because he knows what he's doing and has a proven track record.

Denial ain't and all that.

[ProSense]

15. Questions:

Do you believe Nate when he says: "Although Gravis Marketing polls have had a very strong Republican lean so far this cycle"?

Do you believe that Mitt is winning the black vote in CO by 60 to 40 percent?

[SheilaT]

45. I'm thinking maybe they found three black voters, and

incredibly enough two of them were for Romney.

[ProSense]

16. Another:

Do you acknowledge that Mitt's gain came among Republicans and Obama still hold a pre-debate lead among independents: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021486421#post3

Do you understand that PPP indicates the bounce, even while saying it's among Republicans, is short-lived?

[bigtree]

21. but you're spinning, too

. . . just the opposite direction.

ProSense, at least, is making the more credible observation that these first-debate polls are traditionally favorable to the challenger and traditionally ephemeral; all made more moot by the latest economic news (real-world stuff)

You keep arguing that the esoteric and fluffery of the debate has some kind of mojo that real-world events and the basic structure of Obama's support, so far, is at some dire risk because of his debate performance. You're working overtime to convince that fluff and crap win over substance.

Curiouser, you look to be relegating all that is actually essential and consequential about the president's performance in office to a second-tier status; and, working to convince that real-world, life-affecting performance by this president is less important than the theater reviews from the debate.

All I see, Cali, is a desperate attempt to defend the indefensible position of joining in the media-driven hype that relegates substance, truth, and competency to a back seat; in favor of a critique of debate dramatics.

But, I'll play along . . . long enough turn you over to Nate Silver and his initial take on the debate 'bounce.'

There may be some mitigating factors for Mr. Obama. First, although the conventional wisdom was that Mr. Obama had a lackluster performance throughout most of the debate — he certainly had an extremely cautious and defensive strategy — there were few obvious moments in which he said things that will make for compelling YouTube clips or cable news soundbites.

Second, head-to-head polls throughout the election cycle have been hard to influence for any reason. There are few undecided voters remaining — and undecided voters may be less likely than others to have actually watched the debates.

Still, it seems likely that Mr. Romney will make at least some gains in head-to-head polls after the debate, and entirely plausible that they will be toward the high end of the historical range, in which polls moved by about three percentage points toward the candidate who was thought to have the stronger debate.

The FiveThirtyEight “now-cast” — our estimate of what would happen in an election held immediately — had Mr. Romney trailing by a wider margin than three points in advance of the debate. (Instead, it put his deficit at about five points nationwide.) But our Nov. 6 forecast anticipated that the race would tighten some. It’s going to take a few days for any reaction to the debate to filter through the FiveThirtyEight model.

My own instant reaction is that Mr. Romney may have done the equivalent of kicking a field goal, perhaps not bringing the race to a draw, but setting himself up in such a way that his comeback chances have improved by a material amount. The news cycle will be busy between now and Nov. 6, with a jobs report coming out on Friday, a vice-presidential debate next week and then two more presidential debates on Oct. 16 and Oct. 22.

meh.

[AverageJoe90]

36. Yep. I've noticed that too.

I realize he's trying to keep the far-right off his back but I'm afraid being too a little too lenient in the inclusiveness department, for too long, may harm his credibility in the long run, especially if he allows the use of clearly biased polls like Gravis, which, as you and some others have candidly pointed out, has Romney supposedly winning 3/5ths of African-American voters in Colorado.

[dsc]

49. I just did the math and it doesn't make all that much difference by itself

Blacks make up, according to the census bureau, 4.3% of the population of Colorado. If they are neither more nor less likely to vote than the population as a whole, they would make up 4.3% of the electorate as well. If that were the case, the spread they found (40 to 58 in Romney's favor translates to 1.72% to 2.49% for a margin of -.77%. The spread we would expect (say 90 to 10 in Obama's favor) would translate to 3.87% to 0.43% or a margin of 3.44% in Obama's favor for a total difference in margin of 4.21%. The margin they found in the poll was Romney by 3.5% so the corrected poll would be Obama by .71% well within the MOE. Now that isn't to say their might not have been other problems with the poll too. But the problem we see isn't enough to change the poll.

[BumRushDaShow]

14. Wisconsin is the only battleground state where Rmoney has run more ads

than the President, but everywhere else, he is getting blitzed 2-1.

http://www.freep.com/article/20121005/NEWS15/121005064/Barack-Obama-Mitt-Romney-TV-ad-compaign

[nebenaube]

22. Wisconsin's GAB is corrupt...

There will be 14,000 votes pulled out of thin air the day after the election giving Romney the win.

[BumRushDaShow]

25. Oh I know there are issues there.

It's sad. But I don't think they can go that high with the fraud. Especially after the fiasco with the RNC and Sproul.

[ananda]

60. They will indeed go that high with the fraud..

.. simply because they can! The first two frauds were like
test cases to see if they could; and since they did get away
with it, they will continue.

[Skip Intro]

17. "Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Big Bird?"

39% are not sure.

[lunasun]

43. biggest poll surprise

[LiberalAndProud]

18. I was wrong.

Never give your opponent an opening. Yes, I can believe that the debate shored up Republican voters to actually go vote. That wasn't a good thing.

Let's hope Obama brings it for the home stretch. We'll need it.

[ProSense]

19. 51% of voters say they support federal funding for PBS to 33% who are opposed to it.

The most discussed issue in the wake of the debate Wednesday night has been about funding for public broadcasting. 51% of voters say they support federal funding for PBS to 33% who are opposed to it. Democrats (80/8) strongly support funding, Republicans (22/55) strongly oppose it, and independents (50/37) come pretty close to matching the overall numbers. We also asked about Big Bird himself and while he's a popular figure overall with a 51/11 favorability rating even his reviews have become somewhat partisan with Democrats (58/11) rating him a lot higher than Republicans (37/12).

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-lead-down-to-2-in-wisconsin.html

[gkhouston]

20. Meh. We'll see if Romney holds on to that bump. Seems unlikely. n/t

[writes3000]

23. Negative nancys are so happy! Spreading their doom and gloom!

Negative nancys look for crappy! Their rose is always off the bloom!

[Cali_Democrat]

26. Remember....the glass is ALWAYS half empty with these people

They're just itching to post these kinds of polls as they scold DU for some reason or another.

So transparent.

[DisabledAmerican]

28. careful you will be accused of being something

by them

[Skip Intro]

35. Damn reality dwellers! nt

[Cali_Democrat]

38. You had a nice week

but it will be short-lived

[Skip Intro]

39. I'm sure I had a better week than some.

[Cali_Democrat]

42. You were giddy after the debate, I'm sure

Again...short-lived

[Skip Intro]

44. Why say something like that? nt

[cali]

52. It's called reality. Sorry you and others can't deal with it.

[Cali_Democrat]

64. You LOVE to scold DUers for some reason or another.

The glass is always half empty with you as you try to bring people down to your level of misery. It gets very old.

No wonder why 45 people have you on ignore

[cali]

65. That's scolding? Hardly.

And surely you don't think I care how many people have me on ignore.

I'm not miserable, but I will be if Mittwit becomes President and I'll be damned if I'm going to pretend that that isn't a possibility just because it bugs some DUers when everyone isn't acting as if the President has this in the bag.

[Mojorabbit]

32. I listened to deniers of facts when Kerry was running

and was blindsided by the results. I look at numbers now. There were people here swearing Kerry was going to win and that numbers were wrong. I listened to them then but never again. My learning curve was steep. Peace.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

47. That's Because They Were Substituting Facts With Their Hopes And Wishes

I wasn't blindsided by 04. And I got crucified by some here for saying the polls suggested Bush* was going to win. I'm a realist. However, I feel good about the underlying structure of this race.

But none of us can predict the future.

[geek tragedy]

54. The structure of this race depended on Obama trumping Romney in

personal characteristics. It can't be overstated how damaging it was for Obama to wither and shrivel before the American people when discussing his economic record and agenda.

[writes3000]

61. Yes, it can be overstated and you're doing just that.

Historically, the incumbent almost always takes a bruising in the first debate. And historically, the state of the race tends to snap back to what it was pre-debate.

[NYC Liberal]

24. A bounce was expected. Next week, expect the bounce to be gone with the news of the unemployment

rate dropping. People will care more about that than the debates.

[blue neen]

27. Oh, so some of the respondents were polled before the jobs numbers yesterday.

I see.

Something significant like that could possibly be worth noting in your OP.

[LittleBlue]

29. It's that 4 dimensional chess Obama is playing

Step 1: Tighten the race by getting Obama's clock cleaned at debate
Step 2: ???
Step 3: Profit



Only puppetmaster Axelrod knows Step 2

[blue neen]

30. I'm sorry. I don't really understand your post.

Please explain Steps 2 and 3.

[LittleBlue]

33. It's a South Park joke

lol sorry

[blue neen]

37. Does South Park also call Axelrod a puppetmaster?

Sorry, I don't watch the show.

[WCGreen]

31. So all that tells us that we have to work that much harder....

[still_one]

40. Bullshit, it had nothing to do with the debate, but they are trying to

Justify there results

The fact is this country voted bush in two terms and they still haven't learned their lesson

Also, Wisconsin voted out one of the most decent people, Russ feingold

Elections have consequences

Except this time if the Democrats lose the country will not recover for decades

[NeoConsSuck]

63. It had EVERYTHING to do with the debate...

Please pull your head out of your butt and face reality:

FACT: Two weeks ago the Romney campaign, sensing that Wisconsin was a lost cause, stopped campaigning there and moved to other swing states.

Obama just opened the door and let them back in. And we still don't know how much damage was done in other swing states.

[WI_DEM]

41. Remember that Obama only led by 7 in Wisconsin in PPP's previous poll, so while it's a bump

it's not going to last and according to PPP Obama has maintained a 9-point lead with indies, the same as before the debate. It's only with GOP voters that Romney really made gains.

[Godless in Seattle]

46. Wisconsin is like Missouri

The Show Me State flirts with going blue in every election cycle, but always ends up in the Republican column. Wisconsin is the Democratic equivalent. No need to sweat it: Badgers will be Blue a month from now!

[Samantha]

48. Nate Silver still gives President Obama an 89.8% chance of winning Wisconsin

Overall, his polling a somewhat downward trend since the debate, but Wisconsin seems to be holding firm. I think the bounce Romney got after the debate will fade in time. Also the new jobs report will have an impact.

Sam

[davidn3600]

50. Biden better kick Ryan's ass or Wisconsin could be in play

If Ryan beats Biden, he could see a bounce in Wisconisn.

[Godless in Seattle]

59. People don't vote for Veeps

As I said earlier in this thread, Wisconsin will stay blue.

[geek tragedy]

53. Ugh, that debate was the single biggest disaster to hit any Presidential campaign

in modern history. Blowing off debate prep for the Hoocer dam turns out to be indefensible.

[fugop]

57. Again, seriously?

The economic collapse and, "the fundamentals of the economy remain sound" ring a bell? How about "In what respect, Charlie?" Or "What magazines and newspapers do you read, Governor?"

The debate had an impact, yes, but PPP even tweeted that yesterday's numbers have rebounded. The hyperbole is ridiculous.

[WinkyDink]

55. If Wisconsin, with all its troubles, goes Red, it deserves everything to follow.

[RagAss]

58. I agree. No tears from me if they go red.

And I hope the Koch brothers turn the screws on them even tighter !!!!!

[Iggy]

56. But, But.... Democratic Bloggers Have Been

stating Wisconsin is a lock for Obama!

uhhhh...I've been saying there's something afoot in WI for awhile now, i.e. Scott Wanker elected
(twice).. voters there dumping progressive Senator Feingold, etc.

Wisconsin becoming more like Ohio is not good.

[bluestate10]

62. The UE numbers are likely to be a permanent gamechanger.

And if the President avoids chewing his tongue again in the next debate, Obama/Biden are in for four more years. Joe should handle young Dracula this week.

[budkin]

66. It doesn't matter... he'll still lose the state

He can't keep a lead there.