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Sat Oct 6, 2012, 03:04 PM

Gravis Marketing Has Willard Romney Winning The African American Vote In C0 -60%-40%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Gravis_CO_1006.pdf


Please go to page eleven.


If you "unskew that poll" to the more likely 90% -10% margin the president will enjoy among African Americans in that state the poll results would show the president winning by a percent or two instead of trailing by three.


If I was conducting a survey and discovered such counterintuitive results I would surely check my sample.

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Reply Gravis Marketing Has Willard Romney Winning The African American Vote In C0 -60%-40% (Original post)
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 OP
Lone_Star_Dem Oct 2012 #1
tarheelsunc Oct 2012 #2
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #3
Samjm Oct 2012 #4
DavidDvorkin Oct 2012 #5
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #6

Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 03:12 PM

1. This is one if those automated phone surveys, right?

Not only that but I believe this one only uses land lines.

For reasons like this result is why I don't take them too seriously.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 03:23 PM

2. 60-40?

And I thought that crappy Civitas NC poll from August or early September was bad, where they had the PBS Killer getting 30%.

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Response to tarheelsunc (Reply #2)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 03:26 PM

3. Obama Is Leading Among African Americans In Almost Every National Poll By About 9-1

I doubt African American Coloradoans are that different than their fellow African Americans.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 04:17 PM

4. Doesn't matter

Even if that is true (which is HIGHLY debatable and downright laughable), it really doesn't change too much at all. African Americans make up only 4.3% of CO population.

(info from here: http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/08000.html)

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Response to Samjm (Reply #4)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 04:25 PM

5. And Africans are an even smaller percentage.

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Response to Samjm (Reply #4)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 05:31 PM

6. They Comprise 5.9% Of That Poll

If you assume African Americans in Colorado more or less vote like any other African American than Obama leads by a point or two in that poll. It's simple math.

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