"7.8 and the number is cooked"

[nadinbrzezinski]

I would not laugh too hard. I know it is tempting. It is also predictable.

But this is another step in dividing the country... and all that. In fact, it is not just not funny, it is scary.

When you have unserious people saying it, whatever, but now we have US Congresmen (Yes that be you West and Welch), and leaders of industry... (That be Jack Welch), and even a news network (I know better but they are still considered one), questioning the numbers.

I expected this to be in the usual places, but it's actually much larger than the usual places.

I would not be laughing. It is not funny at all.

In fact, it is rather scary.

[madaboutharry]

1. It shows that they don't care what is best for America.

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. That is not the point, we have known this for years,

the point is that we are ever inching closer to a real hot civil war.

[TheMastersNemesis]

13. I Have Been Saying That We Have Been In A Cold Political Civil War For A Long Time And ----

this election is not an election but an attempted coup by the uber rich and their GOP allies. I have never seen such a deep level of hate and bitterness in my life except during the Civil Rights era and I am beginning to think the mood is rivaling that. I sense serious undercurrents on the landscape. When you encounter Republicans and talk back they get nasty and hateful. There is no possibility for discussion

Romney showed a raging racist hatred of Obama during the debates. In an earlier era he would have been run off the stage and been trashed to history right on the spot. That fact that the media is still trying to prop him up and the GOP is upping their distortion game means that there is still a lot of work to do.

I think the GOP is more dangerous the better the news looks. And if it looks like a certain Obama victory, they will be even more desperate. The GOP still thinks it can force a win.

[nadinbrzezinski]

22. You are right, not the only one saying we have been

in cold civil war for a while... indeed we have.

But I don't know about you, I have a well earned allergy to fast flying lead.

[zappaman]

33. Oh brother

Here we go again with you predicting a civil war.
Said it before and will say it again....BULLSHIT.

[warrior1]

3. they are full of it.

What I've read about this was if you were to tie into the general good feeling people are having about the economy these numbers work. Suck on it repukes and stop hating America.

[Jennicut]

4. They are trying to influence the idiots that are right leaning.

And yes, it is scary. Almost intimidation tactics toward the BLS.

[nadinbrzezinski]

5. I know, but this is more serious than usual

[gordianot]

6. If you were to manipulate the numbers why not 6% instead of lowering to 7.8%?

Given what happened worldwide in 2008, obstructionist in Congress, it is a miracle we are not in a major depression. What a way to determine an election for President an office that has minimal direct impact on unemployment. Simple answers for complex long term structural problems do not work. Every time Romney says he will restore employment I wonder what the hell does he think he can do? Of course no one asks him that question.

Jobs Jobs Jobs is as much bullshit as drill baby drill.

[nadinbrzezinski]

9. Read the OP, please

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

7. Bush and Cheney tried to talk down the economy in 2000 as a campaign tactic

It's as if they were hoping to create a downturn to blame it on the previous administration and Gore. They were telling the U.S. not to believe their eyes but trying to warn the public that things were much worse than they were being told. This was coming from the leader of the GOP himself.

[nadinbrzezinski]

8. Yeah but the climate is very different these days

did you hear major figures talk secession and civil war in 2000? Me neither.

I am just pointing this is just one more step, that is all

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

12. It's true that there are some differences

In 2000 there was no Tea Party. The strong Tea Party showing in 2010 gave them a whiff of what a return to the 19th century would be like, something they long for. Add to that the fact that they see the writing on the wall about the growing change in demographics in the country and the eventual marginalization of the white, male-dominated Tea Party and you have one very desperate group of psychopaths.

[nadinbrzezinski]

15. And you have a governor calling for secession

[theKed]

24. I should probably put on my flame-retardant suit before I dive into this

But ... it's not terribly shocking that the Tea Party and Occupy movements sprang up soon close together, chronologically. There are, observably, very distinct differences to their end desires and goals, but both bear striking similarities in their cores. Hear me out, before you launch the attack. Both are strongly emotionally-fuelled movements, both are 'grassroots' movements composed of great masses of 'lower' classes, both feel wronged and betrayed by governments and institutions that are seen to be no longer serving the people.

At both of their roots are large swaths of "the 99%" (whether disenfranchised socialists/anarchists in Occupy or the right wing equivalent in the Tea Party) with this simmering, undirected rage at the upper classes of society. How this rage gets filtered and directed, of course, is vastly different between the two, but it's that same anger at a society that has betrayed them.

[abumbyanyothername]

16. Why a civil war?

Why not let TX secede? And take the rest of the south with it?

I think we can deal with UT, AK, MT and the like within the union.

[nadinbrzezinski]

18. Because most countries do not let parts of them go away

[abumbyanyothername]

25. Well couldn't we make an exception in this case? nt.

[nadinbrzezinski]

32. You and i might agree

But the Feds won't.

There are valid reasons too.

[grasswire]

27. they would want foreign aid from us

Blue states already subsidize the red states.

[JaneyVee]

10. But they believed these numbers when they were 9%.

[nadinbrzezinski]

11. That is not the point

[underoath]

14. I just dont understand the numbers..

I haven't had anyone explain how the UE rate can drop with the numbers we are seeing..


I LOVE that that UE rate is down I just don't really understand how it dropped that much with the numbers we got?

[nadinbrzezinski]

17. It is a statistical calculation

it is based on reports and things like that... and this is just one of the UE numbers.

Take into account, (a valid critique from the right, but lost in the noise), some of it is people simply giving up on looking for a job. Others it is people like me, working part time.

But the fact that they dropped is a good thing.



Realize this is a month behind...

[underoath]

19. Yes it is a good thing that the rate dropped... but it kinda sucks

when half of the dropping is because of PART TIME work and/or people giving up on looking.

Doesn't seem like the best way to drop the rate...

[nadinbrzezinski]

21. Well as more people get jobs, actually

that will increase demand, and will increase demand for jobs too.

Why dropping is also psychological, If people feel better, they will spend more. Hence more demand.

Oh and welcome to DU

[underoath]

23. yeah I concur!

Thanks!!

[JI7]

20. it was expected, they are still angry Bin Laden is dead

[JackN415]

26. Jack Welch -> truther ; Don Trump -> birther ... blind hatred can cause dementia

[AnnaLee]

28. People should just read the reports.

Statistics requires knowledge and BLS attempts to be very honest in the numbers they report and the sampling error of those numbers. They even disclose when a number is not so reliable short term (such as one month). For example, just as in previous reports, BLS has the following at the end of their text
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION —SEPTEMBER 2012
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

There is about a 90-
percent chance, or level of confidence, that an estimate
based on a sample will differ by no more than 1.6 standard
errors from the "true" population value because of sampling
error. BLS analyses are generally conducted at the 90-
percent level of confidence.
For example, the confidence interval for the monthly
change in total nonfarm employment from the
establishment survey is on the order of plus or minus
100,000. Suppose the estimate of nonfarm employment
increases by 50,000 from one month to the next. The 90-
percent confidence interval on the monthly change would
range from -50,000 to +150,000 (50,000 +/- 100,000).
These figures do not mean that the sample results are off by
these magnitudes, but rather that there is about a 90-percent
chance that the "true" over-the-month change lies within
this interval. Since this range includes values of less than
zero, we could not say with confidence that nonfarm
employment had, in fact, increased that month. If, however,
the reported nonfarm employment rise was 250,000, then
all of the values within the 90-percent confidence interval
would be greater than zero. In this case, it is likely (at least
a 90-percent chance) that nonfarm employment had, in fact,
risen that month. At an unemployment rate of around 5.5
percent, the 90-percent confidence interval for the monthly
change in unemployment as measured by the household
survey is about +/- 280,000, and for the monthly change in
the unemployment rate it is about +/- 0.19 percentage point.

You can't be more careful with reporting such numbers as that. By in large the civil servants are career employees and work in an executive that changes parties several times during a career. It would be quite dangerous for anyone to attempt to make them be dishonest to the public they work for. That's one reason some politicians prefer contractors to government employees. They depend on the public for the support they need to remain independent, usually through civil service rules, unions and whistleblower laws.

[Gabi Hayes]

29. austin goolsby coming up soon on CNN. he said "Jack Welch.....on this one, you've lost your mind"

msnbc just finished a segment on this demonstrating how desparate they are, citing the overall economic trends rising in Obama's favor since 09.

Wolf having goolsby on unopposed, I think, might allow for some interesting contrast to the lying maniacs personified by Welch

btw, I caught some jackass calling in on WGN radio, spewing the same garbage, and the benighted, credulous host bought it hook, line, and sinker. his co host cited the Drudge report's story on the democratic campaign contrbutions of presidential economists

[Gabi Hayes]

30. Goolsby just said there are CRIMINAL penalties for messing with these stats.

criminal

he goes on to wonder why they didn't fudge the numbers more, including last month's, if they were cheating

[Lint Head]

31. I think we are in dangerous times. The right wants to use the 2nd Amendment solution

and human history has proven mankind is capable of violence when it comes to political philosophy mixed with religion.
Because of utterly despicable propaganda, the crazies feel they are going to be crushed by socialism and Obama is setting up a new world order to be ruled by Muslims. The truth will set us free but telling the truth can sometimes get one killed and there is a long list of moral and ethical human beings who have sacrificed to make sure the poor and downtrodden of the world are not rolled over by the dictatorial powers of greed.

If Romney and his philosophical minions are successful I fear for us all. I do not care who thinks my statement is hyperbole or exaggeration. The is just too much hard evidence to the contrary.

[nadinbrzezinski]

34. Yup, we are in dangerous times

For those reasons and others.

Preaching to choir my fellow Cassandra.