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Fri Oct 5, 2012, 12:49 PM

White college educated adults are at Full Employment

Last edited Fri Oct 5, 2012, 01:49 PM - Edit history (3)

This is an important datum in understanding the electorate.

Deep down, the angry white man doesn't have that much to be angry about. White collar whites with their retirement in 401Ks had a nasty shock in the value of their house and a couple of years of employment anxiety, and a couple of years when their retirement funds were down. But today they do not fear dramatic *future* real estate losses, their retirement money is back to where it was before and their employment picture is on par with a normal economy. The fear-level for white-collar whites is much lower than in 2010.

So a lot of the recent economic optimism is probably coming from the middle-to-top. (And the two groups with greatest reason for pessimism, black and hispanic, will not be voting for Romney in any event.)

I see from replies that some clarification is in order. This OP does not say that everything in the world is fine or anything like that. It is about the fact that key Republican demographics are doing a lot better than key Democratic demographics, so the economic argument in the campaign is dulled by that. The groups opposed to Obama happen to be the groups that are being hurt least by the economy, and the groups whose situation has improved the most in the last two years.

"Full Employment" is a specific economic term. It is not 100% employment. It is the maximum non-inflationary employment level, which is around 96%. The Fed has a mandate to pursue both low inflation and full employment.

The unemployment rate for white college graduates as of September 2012 is somewhere below 4%, and would be considered more than full employment as a national number.

Folks may not realize how large the racial and educational employment gaps are. The current rate for someone of any race with a bachelors degree is 4.1% vs. less than HS at 11.3%. The current white rate, including all levels of education, is 7%, the black rate is 13.8%, the hispanic rate 9.9%.

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Arrow 35 replies Author Time Post
Reply White college educated adults are at Full Employment (Original post)
cthulu2016 Oct 2012 OP
RagAss Oct 2012 #1
HereSince1628 Oct 2012 #29
R. Daneel Olivaw Oct 2012 #2
cthulu2016 Oct 2012 #8
MrDiaz Oct 2012 #20
cthulu2016 Oct 2012 #22
MrDiaz Oct 2012 #27
Permanut Oct 2012 #3
cthulu2016 Oct 2012 #9
Permanut Oct 2012 #12
laundry_queen Oct 2012 #28
Permanut Oct 2012 #30
laundry_queen Oct 2012 #33
FSogol Oct 2012 #4
snooper2 Oct 2012 #5
Taverner Oct 2012 #6
upaloopa Oct 2012 #7
cthulu2016 Oct 2012 #11
upaloopa Oct 2012 #16
PufPuf23 Oct 2012 #10
Le Taz Hot Oct 2012 #13
slackmaster Oct 2012 #25
JustABozoOnThisBus Oct 2012 #35
kestrel91316 Oct 2012 #14
Comrade_McKenzie Oct 2012 #15
NCTraveler Oct 2012 #17
cthulu2016 Oct 2012 #19
Tsiyu Oct 2012 #18
PowerToThePeople Oct 2012 #21
cthulu2016 Oct 2012 #24
supernova Oct 2012 #23
R. Daneel Olivaw Oct 2012 #26
GoCubsGo Oct 2012 #32
tritsofme Oct 2012 #31
JVS Oct 2012 #34

Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 12:51 PM

1. Unless they are just out of college.

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Response to RagAss (Reply #1)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 05:02 PM

29. Or over 50

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 12:52 PM

2. Link?

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Response to R. Daneel Olivaw (Reply #2)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 01:00 PM

8. Sure

Unemployment rate: Bachelor's Degree or Higher 4.1%

Overall Unemployment Rate___
White rate: 7%
Black rate: 13.4%

Between those two BLS data points it is reasonable to assume that the white college graduate rate is somewhat lower than the 4.1% overall rate for college graduates. (Though not half, like the overall rate.)

The white college graduate unemployment rate is somewhere in the high 3% range, which meets any economic definition of full employment. (Full employment is not 100% employment, it is the maximum employment sustainable without large increase in inflation. Current national full employment is thought to be somewhere in the 3.5%-4.5% range.)




http://www.deptofnumbers.com/unemployment/demographics/

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Response to cthulu2016 (Reply #8)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 01:39 PM

20. why

 

are you changing the rate number from 7% to 4.1% for whites? Your link showed unemployment by race, then by education, then by age...each chart was separate from each other. So where did you get College educated White's are Fully Employed and this magical number of 4.1%?!?!?

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Response to MrDiaz (Reply #20)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 01:46 PM

22. I'm not sure what you're arguing

The college graduate rate for all races combined is 4.1%.

The white subset of that number has always been below the average for all races, in the entire history of BLS statisics.

The white college graduate rate is below 4.1%.

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Response to cthulu2016 (Reply #22)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 03:30 PM

27. ok well

 

can i get a link to this: "The white subset of that number has always been below the average for all races, in the entire history of BLS statisics."

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 12:56 PM

3. I'll pass that news along to my white, college educated wife..

who is working her last day today at a temporary job she's had for five months after being unemployed for two years. She'll be going to the state employment office Monday morning to start her unemployment claim.

I catch the drift of your post, but hyperbole is ineffective in our house this week. Just a side note, I'm retired, so I'm not part of the employment/unemployment picture.

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Response to Permanut (Reply #3)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 01:01 PM

9. It's not hyperbole

"Full Employment" is an economic term. It doesn't mean 100% employment, it means about 96% employment.

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Response to cthulu2016 (Reply #9)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 01:15 PM

12. Depends on your source..

Tobin, for example argued that full employment meant 100%.

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Response to Permanut (Reply #12)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 05:01 PM

28. Link?

because that's impossible. There are always people in flux. People quitting, people getting fired, people moving, people 'wanting a break', people between contracts...just want to read this theory. Thanks.

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Response to laundry_queen (Reply #28)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 06:01 PM

30. Quoted by Joseph Stiglitz..



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ajz1hV_afuSQ

Good points, laundry, I don't know how anybody could actually get the unemployment rate down to zero? A socialist government or dictatorship maybe?

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Response to Permanut (Reply #30)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 09:39 PM

33. Thanks for the fascinating link

Got sidetracked looking at Bernanke's paper on how to stimulate the economy with interest rates approaching zero. Really relevent for my classes at the moment.

I'll read up on zero unemployment some more and see if I can find out about it. In econ I was taught that zero unemployment rate meant there was a shortage of workers and too many jobs needed filling so interested in seeing this theory. Thanks again for the link.

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 12:57 PM

4. From the Department of Making Stuff Up?

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 12:59 PM

5. this has a little more fail than usually..

Have you taken your fishoil yet today?

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 12:59 PM

6. Um....not too sure about that...

 

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 01:00 PM

7. House values are not back to pre recession rates

and probably never will. There is no difference between the housing market for white and blue collar workers. The housing market varies between localities but not much demographically.

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Response to upaloopa (Reply #7)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 01:12 PM

11. But the greatest losses appear to be behind us.

Economic anxiety is about the future.

Everyone took a big hit on their house, which they have had time to deal with as the "new normal."

In response to the question, "Do you think your house will go down this year?" people in most regions today would say no. That was not the case two years ago.

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Response to cthulu2016 (Reply #11)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 01:22 PM

16. People are still under water. If forced to sell because of loss of income

they have to come up with the difference between what the house is worth and what they owe. If you think that does not cause anxiety just ask me!

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 01:12 PM

10. I am not employed and apparently am not employable in

the extremely tough local job market. The Feds are the largest local employer.

I quit Federal service in 1985 and cannot get a technician job 6 GS levels below my former position. I was a GS-11 professional series and supposedly have reinstatment rights (can apply as a merit "promotion" as a transfer rather than a new Federal hire). I am willing to take a GS-5 technical position and do not have the stamina nor desire at age 60 for former responsibility.

I have a BS and Masters from Cal, a year grad work as a Fed employee, and did not finish a PhD because of having to return to my home state when my father died. The Masters was also post my former Federal service. I did work for the same agency post the Masters as a contractor to same agency billed at $90/hr in late 80s and early 90s.

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 01:16 PM

13. Unless they're over 50.

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Response to Le Taz Hot (Reply #13)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 01:53 PM

25. Word. Age discrimination is insidious and pervasive.

 

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Response to Le Taz Hot (Reply #13)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 09:56 PM

35. Maybe I should get my hair dyed

... before my next job interview.

The solid grey, heading toward white, is probably a valid indication that I'm over 65. This might be a negative for employment.

Maybe I can "fake" being around 50-55, if that would help.

I'm getting quite a few interviews, not much in the area of second interviews.

It can't be my qualifications, can it?

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 01:17 PM

14. Not in SoCal. I know too many folks still looking for work.

And a large part of the problem is that people who used to make $100k now make $30k. And we won't even get into the collapse and ongoing weakness of the real estate market.

No one can qualify for mortgages anymore. Everyone rents.

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 01:19 PM

15. Not those of us that got booted off Pell grants with the new red tape...

 

Part of the big budget compromise, I suppose.

I only had 6 classes to go for my Associate's Degree.

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 01:22 PM

17. Where did you get white from in the 4.1%.

I can't find it anywhere. I see why you didn't add the link to your op. The first paragraph is also bunk. Not saying white college educated adults aren't at full employment. Just that your link in know way shows that. It was a little ethnic heading filler by you.

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Response to NCTraveler (Reply #17)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 01:36 PM

19. Here you go

I don't know the white college graduate rate as of today's report, but it is always somewhere below the total average for each demographic. Whatever the number is today, it is below 4.1%.


At the end of 2010, African Americans 25 years old and older with a college education had an unemployment rate of 7.3 percent, while the rate for white college graduates was 4.2 percent, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Other minority groups, such as Asian college graduates and Hispanics, hover a shade over 5.5 percent

http://www.phillytrib.com/newsarticles/item/3459-blacks-still-struggling-in-job-market.html


the unemployment rate of African American college graduates was 6.9 percent, while the unemployment rate among white college graduates was a mere 3.9 percent.

http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/labor/report/2011/07/25/9992/the-black-and-white-labor-gap-in-america/

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 01:29 PM

18. Which is why I'm going back to school


Did the whole FAFSA thing recently .....again after many years

Don't know what for yet, but would like to finish a degree and maybe find another source of income as a result.

Education is the key, even as I admit there are many exceptions to that rule in the current economy.

Without education, however, one is relegated to part-time, "unskilled" jobs at horrific wages with almost no possibility of advancement.

With education, you can hope for far better.

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 01:43 PM

21. Not correct across the board

I would have at least 3x my current retirement if I had put the money in a coffee can vs 401k. Out of school for just over 10 years. Never have made enough money to afford a house at 21st century inflated rates. If I am lucky, I may be able to get one at a foreclosure auction within the next decade.

I am white collar, college educated, white male. 50k salary range in an area where that is higher than median.

Am I on the streets? No. I am an indentured servant to my student loans with slim chances of ever owning any real estate and it with be a miracle to be able to retire prior to death.

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Response to PowerToThePeople (Reply #21)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 01:52 PM

24. I agree that very little is correct across the board

But bonds are up and the most usual retirement vehicle for current workers, an S&P500 Index Fund, is about where it started out (nominally), so it is safe to say that the average retirement fund picture has greatly improved over the last two years.

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 01:51 PM

23. No, we're not

I was let go in 2008 and was not able to find another suitable position despite, or becuase of years of experience in my industry, IT. The kind of work I did was outsourced to people who the company admitted produced lesser quality work. All because they were cheaper.

And just try being in your late 40s and now 50s trying to find another job in corporate America. Good Luck. Must long term unemployed are in my age cohort. We did not want to stop working. We are too young to retire and still enjoy doing quality, meaningful work.

I guess if you mean by "full employment" that means, you're younger than 40 and possibly have a grad degree. There are a lot of us out here that were forcibly retired with no 401Ks, no healthcare, no holidays, sick leave, or vacation pay.

Fuck that.

I'm starting my own company in a completely different industry, one for which I had to train. Nobody tells me how long I may or may not work.

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Response to supernova (Reply #23)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 01:58 PM

26. I'm in the same sinking stinking boat.

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Response to R. Daneel Olivaw (Reply #26)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 06:13 PM

32. Me, too.

I have a Masters degree, too. Not enough these days. Everyone wants you to have a PhD--even if you have 20 experience under your belt. And, it ain't just corporate America where it's nearly impossible for us to find jobs, either. We get to fight tooth and nail for the handful of state, local and federal government jobs that are out there.

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Response to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 06:08 PM

31. Not full employment for this demographic. It peaked at 5%, and was 2% pre-recession

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
2002 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9
2003 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0
2004 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5
2005 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.1
2006 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.8 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8
2007 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.1
2008 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.8 2.6 3.1 3.2 3.6
2009 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 5.0 4.7 4.8 4.9
2010 4.8 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.6 5.0 4.8
2011 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.1
2012 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.0 3.9 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1

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Response to tritsofme (Reply #31)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 09:43 PM

34. +1

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