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Fri Oct 5, 2012, 12:46 PM

There's More Good News In The Jobs Report Than You Might Realize

Josh Marshall ‏@joshtpm
There's more good news in the jobs report than u may realize http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/10/important_point_on_jobs.php Ö via @TPM

Around six weeks and particularly after the conventions, both campaigns started noticing that public perceptions of the economy were on the upswing. But neither campaign had a clear sense of why that was happening. The economy itself seemed either stable (in a bad place) or even trending down. Was there something going on in the economy that the hard economic data wasnít picking up? Or was the campaign itself somehow partisanizing perceptions of the economy? Or maybe did Obama and Clinton just get people really pumped up about the economy?

But new evidence suggests it may have been the former possibility. We donít just have a decent jobs report today. The BLS also revised the numbers for July and August pretty dramatically. August was revised up from 96,000 to 142,000 and July was revised up to 181,000. Those arenít roaring recovery numbers but they paint a very different picture than the original numbers. This comes on the heels of a report a week ago that the BLS upward revised the jobs numbers from the first half of the year by 386,000 jobs.

Together, again, that paints a significantly different picture of where the economy has been for the last year. Politically, weíve been operating on the assumption that the economy got into gear last winter and then slumped back into anemic jobs growth in the spring. But it seems like on the ground that may not actually have happened. So if we wonder why Obamaís numbers have resisted the anemic jobs reality, it seems like we may have had an incorrect picture of what that reality was.


read: http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/10/important_point_on_jobs.php

8 replies, 848 views

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Arrow 8 replies Author Time Post
Reply There's More Good News In The Jobs Report Than You Might Realize (Original post)
bigtree Oct 2012 OP
PA Democrat Oct 2012 #1
porphyrian Oct 2012 #2
skeewee08 Oct 2012 #3
Uncle Joe Oct 2012 #4
dkf Oct 2012 #5
bigtree Oct 2012 #6
dkf Oct 2012 #7
bigtree Oct 2012 #8

Response to bigtree (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 12:48 PM

1. K & R.

I'm happy that the economy is recovering but also because it will upset Romney.

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 12:48 PM

2. . n/t

 

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 12:50 PM

3. K&R

This is really good news

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 12:53 PM

4. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread, bigtree.

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Response to bigtree (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 12:56 PM

5. The thing is that without knowing about the revisions the numbers don't make sense.

 

And unfortunately revisions can make conspiracy theorists antennae rise.

Just look at the revision of Mitt Romney's estimated income for his taxes vs the final...it was making all the wheels spin here and even some more academic professors latched onto it also.

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Response to dkf (Reply #5)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 01:02 PM

6. the last revisions were upward, more jobs created

. . . and all of the trends have been improving steadily for over 30 months now. Comparing the BLS report with Romney's explanation (non-explanation) of his taxes is just absurd, dkf

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Response to bigtree (Reply #6)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 01:16 PM

7. I'm talking about reactions to the word "revision".

 

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Response to dkf (Reply #7)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 01:26 PM

8. okay, I get it

I'd say, though, that if job growth was revised downward, they'd surely embrace those revisions. They can't be allowed to keep shifting what they believe every time they get called out or bested.

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