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Fri Oct 5, 2012, 09:55 AM

...7.8% Unemployment Rate!!!! - Conservatives Charge Conspiracy

UPDATE x4 - Breaking - 7.8% Unemployment Rate!!!! - Conservatives Charge Conspiracy

by justmy2

And the narrative has changed!!!!

The unemployment rate in the U.S. unexpectedly fell to 7.8 percent in September, the lowest since President Barack Obama took office in January 2009, as employers took on more part-time workers.

The economy added 114,000 workers last month after a revised 142,000 gain in August that was more than initially estimated, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median estimate of 92 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for an advance of 115,000. The jobless rate dropped from 8.1 percent and hourly earnings climbed more than forecast.

Any questions about why the President played it safe on Wednesday?

I know he doesn't know the numbers ahead of time...but...the did know the earlier revisions and trendlines...

Unemployment is now BELOW where it was when the President entered office.

Government jobs for the last three months revised up and no longer negative.

This will be huge news, and will drive the Sunday narrative and offset the debate performance.



As I said yesterday...

its ok...we are going to be fine....Romney didn't really change anything except give the Beltway something to talk about....he looked like a jerk...reinforcing the primary Obama Campaign narrative...when all of this wears off not much will have changed...

but if UE comes in strong tomorrow...it will be another narrative change....

we just have to deal with this news cycle...can't win em all...

It's all good...

“Mitt Romney is the only person in America who looked at the way this Congress is behaving and said, ‘I want the brains behind THAT operation.’ ” Former Democratic Congressman - Tom Perriello "Small Businesses Don't Build Levees" - MHP

by justmy2 on Thu Oct 04, 2012 at 02:22:29 PM EDT

UPDATE #1 - And the top of conservasphere begins their march into tinfoil oblivion....



UPDATE #2 - BTW-Total Employment Jumped 873,000 last month!! Biggest Increase In 30 YEARS!!

Talk about a convention bounce!!! HA!

UPDATE #3: Big Bird rejoices!



UPDATES #4 - My favorite reply to the BLS truthers!



http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/05/1140479/-Breaking-7-8-Unemployment-Rate


Unemployment Rate and Jobs Added Numbers Come from DIFFERENT SURVEYS+*

by DaveV

This morning I was shocked SHOCKED that the Morning Joe team came to such a quick conclusion that this morning's labor report numbers "don't add up." Then they pass on the idiotic Jack Welch conspiracy tweet. This despite all of them admitting that they don't know about economics.

This is just a quick diary to give a very basic answer -- one I haven't heard people make clearly.

The 7.8% unemployment rate comes from the Current Population Survey (CPS) - "a monthly survey of households conducted by the Bureau of Census for the Bureau of Labor Statistics."

The +114,000 payroll number comes from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) a survey of "about 141,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 486,000 individual worksites, in order to provide detailed industry data on employment, hours, and earnings of workers on nonfarm payrolls."

DIFFERENT SURVEYS, FOLKS! The 114,000 number and the 7.8% number don't have to add up. Furthermore, there have been several recent upwards adjustments in the employment situation -- reflecting that for some reason, recent employer surveys have been undercounting jobs.

Please spread this far and wide to counter the Jack Welch idiots of the world.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/05/1140501/-Unemployment-Rate-and-Jobs-Added-Numbers-Come-from-DIFFERENT-SURVEYS


I love head-exploding facts.




Note:

Kos Media, LLC Site content may be used for any purpose without explicit permission unless otherwise specified




19 replies, 1854 views

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 10:01 AM

1. My reply

My office is full of Republicans who are all in with the conspiracy. My reply has been "If President Obama could manipulate the job numbers himself, don't you think he would have done it before now?"

I had to step out of the office for a second to calm down while their heads exploded and "It's going to be a bright, bright sunshiny day" was on the speaker in the bathroom. Karma.

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Response to LannyDeVaney (Reply #1)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 10:03 AM

2. LOL!

Welcome.



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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 10:04 AM

3. I'm confused on how the un-employment numbers do not have to match the

 

un-employment rate?


Shouldn't they be related? If you use one survey for one number and a different survey for another how can one impact the other?

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Response to underoath (Reply #3)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 10:11 AM

5. It's confusing, but they do a phone survey to capture changes the fixed "establishment" survey can't


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Response to reformist2 (Reply #5)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 10:25 AM

8. so that means we can add 114,000 jobs but the UE rate can drop?

 

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Response to underoath (Reply #8)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 11:17 AM

13. Existing businesses that they survey added 114,000 jobs. Add to that new businesses, new contractors

Also, it's possible that the previous couple of reports were off, and this report is "catching up," so it looks like a sudden improvement.

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Response to reformist2 (Reply #13)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 03:06 PM

15. so existing businesses added 114,000 jobs.. well what were the numbers to new businesses and

 

new contractors??

If those numbers tie into the dropping of the UE rate then shouldn't we know what those numbers are? and why are they not giving us those numbers so it is easier to explain the UE rate drop?

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Response to underoath (Reply #15)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 03:17 PM

16. We don't have exact numbers. That's why they do the phone survey and ask if people have jobs.


It's the phone survey that showed a jump of over 800,000 jobs last month, and it is the phone survey that is used to calculate the unemployment rate. But the phone survey is smaller in scope than the other survey, so the data is noiser - i.e., it bounces around more from month to month. I looked into this already and you can see the phone survey actually showed job losses in July and August, which went against what the businesses were saying. So this month's +800,000 can be seen as "making up" for the erroneous declines seen in the prior two reports.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 10:06 AM

4. They're so fucking predictable

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 10:22 AM

6. we added 873,000 jobs?!?!?!?!

 

UPDATE #2 - BTW-Total Employment Jumped 873,000 last month!! Biggest Increase In 30 YEARS!!

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 10:25 AM

7. K & R. n/t

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 10:29 AM

9. They can't believe it because despite their best efforts

to STALL job creation efforts so it remained above 8%, Obama was still able to make gains. It would be even lower if Congress passed the measures Obama's team offered.

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Response to nobodyspecial (Reply #9)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 10:35 AM

12. The whole lot of them are economic traitors and hitmen.

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 10:30 AM

10. Oh, and it's just going to get better.

Have you seen the holiday hiring forecasts?

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Response to nobodyspecial (Reply #10)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 12:28 PM

14. Yup. n/t

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 10:35 AM

11. Arithmetic!

Someone did the arithmetic!

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 03:18 PM

17. wow, frum nails welch...i like it when they go after each other

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Response to spanone (Reply #17)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 05:43 PM

18. Yup. n/t

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Response to spanone (Reply #17)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 05:51 PM

19. I appreciated that one, as well

Welch, who actually monkeyed with the numbers all the time, calling conspiracy on this, where the BLS is actaully independent and can't be monkeyed with - that's rich.

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