An alternative hypothesis regarding President Obama's debate performance last night

[markpkessinger]

Reading various posts on last night's debate, among the President's supporters, on this site as well as others, reactions seem to fall into one of four categories:

1. those who saw nothing at all amiss in the President's performance;
   
   
2. those who acknowledge he wasn't at his best, but claim that it was all part of the President's 11-dimensional chess strategy (or, alternatively, lay any responsibility for a sub-par performance at the feet of Lehrer's poor moderation);
   
   
3. those who acknowledge Lehrer's lousy moderation, but also believe that the President bears responsibility for what he did or did not bring to the debate, yet who do not see the outcome of last night's debate as the end of the world as far as the campaign goes; and
   
   
4. those who think President Obama absolutely blew it.

The first and fourth groups, I think, are both relatively small compared to the middle two. Few people who are familiar with what President Obama is capable of in settings like this, if they are being completely honest with themselves, would suggest that President Obama brought his best game to last night's debate. But likewise, while most would recognize that the President could have delivered a better performance than he did, they will also recognize that he did have a command of the facts underlying the issues discussed during the debate — a command his opponent clearly did not have — and know that one debate outcome is unlikely to have a significant effect on the outcome of the race.

As to the second group, if one acknowledges that the President wasn't on top of his game last night, I think it's a mistake to lay responsibility for that fact anywhere but on the President himself, irrespective of the admittedly lousy moderating by Lehrer. As for those who attribute the President's performance last night to some kind of intentional, strategic chess move, I'm afraid I can't quite buy that either. His demeanor wasn't that of someone who had coolly calculated a strategy for last night's debate. He was ill at ease, and it showed. To suggest it was an intentional move in a longer game just smacks, frankly, of Kool-Aid intoxication.

As anyone reading this has probably figured out by now, I find myself in the third group. And while I don't think a single, less-than-optimal debate performance will be all that significant in terms of the campaign, if all three debates were to have similar outcomes, that could create a real problem. So, last night's performance creates pressure on the President to deliver a stronger performance in the remaining debates. And that is what brings me around to my alternative hypothesis concerning that performance.

Having watched the President over these last, 4+ years, he seems to be the type who thrives under intense pressure. Indeed, I would say he delivers some of his best work when the stakes are really high, when his back is against a wall. And of course, that is consistent with the kind of competitive personality he is said to have. Thus, watching him last night, it almost seemed as if maybe, given all of Romney's recent troubles, he was feeling a bit too comfortable, and that perhaps, subconsciously, he needed to find a way to create the kind of pressure for himself that will invoke that competitive drive of his. And maybe that's all just so much armchair psychologizing. But it certainly strikes me as more plausible than the 11-dimensional chess hypothesis.

Any thoughts?

[Vietnameravet]

1. Put me in category three..

Seriously does anyone know anyone who says, " I was going to vote for Obama but now I changed my mind."

If I encountered such a person I would say he or she was lying..

[grasswire]

2. I'm waiting to hear if there was a national security dustup that occupied his focus.

Bob Woodward said as much this morning.

And I remember how Obama gave his state of the union address knowing about the rescue in Somalia, and Obama had been dealing with all of that pressure.

He seemed, to me, to consider Romney irrelevant.

[markpkessinger]

3. That's certainly a possibility also . . .

I wrote my post before I saw the thread about Woodward's comments. But yes, if something was brewing internationally, that would certainly explain a lot.

[grasswire]

5. while Romney was hearing railroad trains, Obama was having briefings nt

[Robb]

4. Hint: it rhymes with "furkey."

I mean, probably.

[Vattel]

6. Murky? Lurky? Captain Kirky? My brain no worky. Can you give me another hint?

[dkf]

9. More likely it rhymes with "fibya."

Why do you think Turkey? Because of the dustup with Syria?

[Honeycombe8]

10. Jerky? Quirky? Perky? nt

[Honeycombe8]

7. I'm in category three. Good analysis. nt

[Laura PourMeADrink]

8. OMG..Over the last 24 hours, I have been in all four groups..but sadly, have

landed in 4, (small group, you say).

I think it hit me after seeing the undecideds focus group.

they obviously don't have innate fact checking personalities

they believed every unchallenged word Romney said.

This is the crux of the matter. what the undecideds and leaners think.

Obama handlers are just not politically savvy. They just are not. The may be genius at number crunching electoral votes - but not at savvy. All you have to do is listen to Axelrod....he needs to be behind the scenes.

If I could have a wish come true - it would be that Obama whisks Chris, Ed, Rachel and the guy from Actors Studio up to camp david this weekend for a retreat. It would do wonders !!!!!!

[meadowlark5]

11. There was some international stuff happening yesterday

Syria and Turkey were approaching some conflict. Syria accused Turkey of injuring two of their soldiers along the border and began posturing for a fight. Then Turkey's govt approved military action against Syria if necessary. I know Hillary was busy with that yesterday so I'm sure Obama was too. The prospect of that battle must be pretty daunting as the international community was scrambling to try and diffuse it. Obama still has a job, he can't prepare for a debate all day long for months like that poor unemployed Mitt Romney.